Technical Analysis = CRAP

[wrbtrader]

Quote from Neenisti:

Mark, you are being silly. It is obvious from your comment you've never been in a pit or taken the time to talk to any of the pit traders. The traders in the pit do not make decisions based on a single price stamp and the percentage that particular price stamp is either higher or lower than the open. If you bothered to read my post, that point was made crystal clear on how then run their trades. If you didn't understand my post then it goes a long way toward you not understanding how price moves.

You're correct. I've never said nor imply I was in the pit even though my old man is an ex pit trader.

Regardless, please answer my question...how much of an impact does your "over a decade of market experience" have in your profitability. ???

Lets take this a little further, how much of an impact in your trading plan is money management, proper trading equipment, decent commission rates, proper capitalization and so on...does that impact your profitability...Yes or No ???

Simply, is your profitability exclusively due to TA regardless to what type of equipment you use, regardless to collaboration you may have in your office, regardless to any money management rules et cetera.

Edit - I now see you answer part of the question (kind'uv) prior to this message post. In addition, no need with the condescending replies such as my lack of price action knowledge. I have not done such to you out of respect.

Mark

 

[Neenisti]

Quote from wrbtrader:

Lets take this a little further, how much of an impact in your trading plan is money management, proper trading equipment, decent commission rates, proper capitalization and so on...

Does that impact your profitability...Yes or No ???

I already answered the first part, so here goes on the second part.

Trading plan is what I consider objective and fully rules based.
Money management consists of tight stops only. Objective rules are for entry as well as exit.
I trade on a up-to-date computer with multiple internet connections.
My commission rates suck because I'm with a full service broker that whines he doesn't make enough off me. I like him though so I stay with him because I'm consistently profitable despite his high commissions.
My margin is light because I have proved to myself over a long period of time I don't require over capitalization to be consistently profitable. My drawdowns are always very very small compared to my overall daily profitability.
Oh, I'm not a scalper. I trade up to a few times a day, maximum, per chart.

 

[Fireplace]

Do you know of any traders, who have zero context other than one price quote, who make trades?

Quote from wrbtrader:

I strongly disagree. Lets put it this way, whenever a floor trader looks up at that big quote screen or whenever any person (trader or none trader) see price quotes on any financial TV network (e.g. CNBC, Bloomberg)...

You're suggesting they all are using Technical Analysis.

 

[Neenisti]

Quote from wrbtrader:

Simply, is your profitability exclusively due to TA?

Edit - I now see you answer part of the question (kind'uv) prior to this message post. In addition, no need with the condescending replies such as my lack of price action knowledge. I have not done such to you out of respect.

Mark

Sorry, I apologize. Didn't mean to seem condescending.
Yes, all TA.

 

[failed_trad3r]

Quote from Neenisti:

Each time you post it is obvious why you chose your nickname. You need another one called "fail3d logic" as well.

I sincerely doubt you are using technical analysis. You might be using its tools like oscillators but you are not analysing the technical way, but the quant way.

 

[Fireplace]

How do you know what he is doing? He is telling you he is using TA....you just don't want to believe it.

Quote from failed_trad3r:

I sincerely doubt you are using technical analysis. You might be using its tools like oscillators but you are not analysing the technical way, but the quant way.

 

[trend2009]

Hi marketsurfer,

only 1 out of 100+ traders in your firm is profitable?
is that true? then how can the hedge fund exist?

Quote from marketsurfer:

While there are folks who apparently, if they are to be be believed, who can subjectively use TA for profits. As well as others like my friend David Aronson who objectively test TA sometimes finding a very slight advantage at times- however NONE are super successful the same thing can be said about astrology. Some folks make it a science and a complicated one at that, others apply it subjectively. Think of Arch Crawford. That guy had the most successful news letter for years and all his calls were based on astrology. He also worked inside a big bank-- forget which one and has quite the pedigree on the Street. How do you explain this?

I do know, the last hedge fund I worked with, had over 100 traders thru the door-- all were vetted and all showed proven track records prior to being tested for employment--- out of the 100 plus only one proved profitable when funded. Plus his edge had nothing to do with TA in any stretch of the definition

Any noobs here, turn off your PM boxes because you will likely get solicited by those posing as "helpers" "mentors" or "masters" Be very cautious and never send your money to someone claiming to help you for a fee or whatever the scheme happens to be. These people can be insidiously crafty, just like the market itself.

I have never met a wealthy TAnalyst who made his money from trading. There are plenty of bored rich guys who use TA but I venture to say not one got wealthy from TA.

The truth needs to be told in this business.

 

[wrbtrader]

Quote from Fireplace:

Do you know of any traders, who have zero context other than one price quote, who make trades?

Hmmm...interesting. My one quote response was not about a trader. It was about my Mom seeing a single price quote on her TV. Just as important, it was a question if she was using TA based upon a single price quote to make a trade decision.

Yet, you choose to quote my other paragraph that involves floor traders that obviously do not use a single price quote for trade decisions.

Regardless, I do not know any "floor traders" that have zero context other than one price quote who makes trade decisions via such.

Quote from Frits:

...And if anyone really found a way to predict the market by using TA, well congrats on that! I made it clear why TA doesn't work in the OP. Maybe there are traders who think they make profits thanks to the use of TA. I think those traders are giving themselves not enough credits. In my opinion they just turned themselves into professionals. They did so by spending thousands of hours analysing the markets, and not because of the use of TA...

Summary - Profitable traders that say they use TA should realize that successful trading cannot be exclusively thrown at the feet of TA. Thus, those thousand of hours analyzing the markets = market experience in combo with TA.

By the way, I do believe you use charts or even TA because that link you posted and recommended @ nobsdaytrading.com

He mentions something interesting via saying you will learn...How to determine 'real' support and resistance levels and what to look for at those levels.

Sounds like TA to me.

Quote from Neenisti:

Sorry, I apologize. Didn't mean to seem condescending.
Yes, all TA.

No longer a problem.

With that said, I think Fireplace dipped his feet into an interesting area of discussion called "market context". I don't think someone can profitably use TA without that context. Therefore, profitable traders using TA are not doing such exclusively without any help from anything else.

I leave the above as my last opinion in this thread as food for thought. I based that opinion on my personal experience and the experiences of those I personally know as retail traders, floor/pit traders, institutional traders, prop traders and arcade traders.

Most use TA (not all) but all do use some kind'uv market context regardless if the views is wrong or right....regardless if they use charts or quote screens only.

Mark

 

[Neenisti]

Quote from failed_trad3r:

I sincerely doubt you are using technical analysis. You might be using its tools like oscillators but you are not analysing the technical way, but the quant way.

You can be as sincere as you want.

 

[Fireplace]

You actually didn't say anything about someone actually placing a trade based on this, you just mentioned someone seeing the quote.

"or whenever any person (trader or none trader) see price quotes on any financial TV network (e.g. CNBC, Bloomberg)...

You're suggesting they all are using Technical Analysis. "

If someone places a trade just based on a random quote, then what kind of analysis was done? Sounds like a random trade. I guess people can place random trades by just seeing a price quote, although the point of that escapes me and it really doesn't sound like any analysis was done at all, to be honest.

Quote from wrbtrader:


Hmmm...interesting. My one quote response was not about a trader. It was about my Mom seeing a single price quote on her TV. Just as important, it was a question if she was using TA based upon a single price quote to make a trade decision.

Yet, you choose to quote my other paragraph that involves floor traders that obviously do not use a single price quote for trade decisions.

Regardless, I do not know any "floor traders" that have zero context other than one price quote who makes trade decisions via such.