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magicdistortion

GoPro earning 4/27

I used data like Google search volume, website traffic trend from Compete/SimilarWeb and built a few python scripts to crawl public data that could be useful for forecasting earnings. Based on my analysis and models, I predicted that GoPro's 2017 Q1 earning will be a disappointment – compared to 2016 Q1, revenue drops by 28% to 46%.

My Trade: buy put option at strike price $10
 
magicdistortion said:
GoPro earning 4/27

I used data like Google search volume, website traffic trend from Compete/SimilarWeb and built a few python scripts to crawl public data that could be useful for forecasting earnings. Based on my analysis and models, I predicted that GoPro's 2017 Q1 earning will be a disappointment – compared to 2016 Q1, revenue drops by 28% to 46%.

My Trade: buy put option at strike price $10
More...
Those $10 puts were going for $1.10 earlier.
G/L
 
magicdistortion said:
The trade worked out, but my forecast was wrong, so I am working on revising the model and data being used.
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I'm not sure how you can correlate website visits into earnings. There's so much more involved. That being said, it might work for earnings surprises or disappointments for certain companies that require website visits for their products.
Fitbit comes to mind. Give it a shot on them. Their earnings are slated for 5/3. And in order for it to portend something, I would think you have to go back and look at prior quarters/results/visits. Not sure if thats possible. But going forward you could certainly archive the data.
 
Last time my prediction on GoPro revenue was off, so I've made some changes to the forecast model and estimate that Fitbit's Q1 revenue will be around $258M - $288M. As a result they might miss the earning expectation of $271M – 288M and I'll still make a short trade.

Fitbit Q1 earning 5/3
My Trade: buy puts option at strike price $5.5 to $6 or just short sell Fit
 
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