Check the market in terms of gold. When did the bear market start and when did it end? I would be interested to read your opinion. I think you are intelligent.
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Tech earning bubble
- Thread starter hajimow
- Start date
Check the market in terms of gold. When did the bear market start and when did it end? I would be interested to read your opinion. I think you are intelligent.
Quote from tradingjournals:
Check the market in terms of gold. When did the bear market start and when did it end? I would be interested to read your opinion. I think you are intelligent.
To be honest, I am not into GOLD that much and I cannot really say where it is going. I just guess because stock market has been so attractive recently, many investors have sold GOLD ETFs (not GOLD stocks which is a kind of also affected by GOLD being down) which is supposed to be a hedge against stock market and jumped into stock market. Maybe relatively bear market in GOLD can be considered as just a correction to last year (or 2011) gold rally. I used to trade micro cap gold companies in 1995-1998 time frame but not anymore. All things said, I am not a gold bug. I have just recently started to sell short term out of the money GLD PUTs which all have expired so far and I have collected the premium. But In terms of my other positions, I consider myself very knowledgeable and will not give up till I make money. I am also not asking anyone to follow me. If I wanted to show that I am Mr. right in the market I would falsely claim after the fact trades to impress the crowd.
When I was talking about my YHOO long position 18 months ago, I was criticized and was told YHOO is a dead company and has no chance against GOOGLE and ..... It has been up 250% since then. Not that I could catch even 50% of it as I believe YHOO is also in bubble territory now.
i think you saw that drop when QE2 ended that June. than you saw the bottom made when the fed started Operation Twist in September of that year.
the fed limited your options like no interest in bank accounts, cd, bonds, and we have a lot of stock buy back programs. where else can you go and get any returns? i don't know if the vix can measure that. the trade is long but its based on money supply not good economics. the fed tells you the economy is in trouble every time they speak yet they never use the word bubble for stocks. they have a math formula that tells them if the market goes up companies will hire and all this will make sense to us silly people someday.
the fed limited your options like no interest in bank accounts, cd, bonds, and we have a lot of stock buy back programs. where else can you go and get any returns? i don't know if the vix can measure that. the trade is long but its based on money supply not good economics. the fed tells you the economy is in trouble every time they speak yet they never use the word bubble for stocks. they have a math formula that tells them if the market goes up companies will hire and all this will make sense to us silly people someday.
Quote from niting:
Remember summer of 2011, small cap tanked 30% in couple of months.
Quote from tradingjournals:
That was the bottom of the bear market.
Did anyone look at vix? It tries to rise, but the market does not seem to care at all, and it then goes goes down.
Does anyone know when the fund managers receive their bonus or the letters/decisions? If decisions have not been made, why would any fund manager start selling? He would risk the bonus.
Just a update on ADI:
ADI is down over 7% today after the earning announcement to $46.20 (from $50). I believe it just started. They had bad Q reports for a year and as their report says next Q will be down 10% from this Q. The downtrend just started and I believe if the market is fair even considering QE continuation, we might see ADI at $35 soon. So it is a good stock stock to short. and if you were looking for a confirmation, here it is. You are not shorting at top. You will be shorting after selloff and bad earning confirmation.
ADI is down over 7% today after the earning announcement to $46.20 (from $50). I believe it just started. They had bad Q reports for a year and as their report says next Q will be down 10% from this Q. The downtrend just started and I believe if the market is fair even considering QE continuation, we might see ADI at $35 soon. So it is a good stock stock to short. and if you were looking for a confirmation, here it is. You are not shorting at top. You will be shorting after selloff and bad earning confirmation.
QQQ 85 puts trading at 0.18. Why are they this low? It is 1.5 days away.
Quote from hajimow:
Just a update on ADI:
ADI is down over 7% today after the earning announcement to $46.20 (from $50). I believe it just started. They had bad Q reports for a year and as their report says next Q will be down 10% from this Q. The downtrend just started and I believe if the market is fair even considering QE continuation, we might see ADI at $35 soon. So it is a good stock stock to short. and if you were looking for a confirmation, here it is. You are not shorting at top. You will be shorting after selloff and bad earning confirmation.
Did you get in yesterday? Did you notice that today's shorts are in the red. Also spreads on puts are big. Example: 0.10 on 45 december puts priced at around .40.
How do you explain the rise from 46 to 48 of ADI after it announced weak outlook?
It is as if the market so far told the CEO something like "you are a liar."?
It is as if the market so far told the CEO something like "you are a liar."?
Quote from tradingjournals:
Did you get in yesterday? Did you notice that today's shorts are in the red. Also spreads on puts are big. Example: 0.10 on 45 december puts priced at around .40.
ADI does not have active option and spreads are big. I sold 20 PUT 43 for DEC today at 0.2. Just half an hour after the market opened. I already had short position on ADI and did not open new position today. You have to look at ADI's chart after two weeks. Going up from 46.25 to47.75 does not say much when market is also rallying. When market corrects, ADI will go down more.