Hey guys, a fellow ETer recommended I buy the book "Trading Day by Day" to learn how to swing trade. It is an excellent book packed with actual trading knowledge rather than the typcial fluff you see in many books.
Well the method looks very solid but I just can't seem to apply it profitably. (on a paper account) I know a large part of the reason is because I really limit my trading hours, by the time I'm up and ready to trade there are about 3 hours left before close.
But perhaps a larger problem is my own inability to apply the system correctly. I thought I'd share the system to see what you guys had to say about it, like what you agree with, what you don't, what you would do differently. It's a long read so I really appreciate anyone who's willing to take their time to comment.
This is a few days - few weeks discretionary trend trading system. Buying is done usually at the open at market or with a limit order. Exits are discretionary based on profit margin and chart patterns indicating the end of a trend or indecisiveness. Wide stop losses are also used tightening up as the trend takes off. System is followed using EOD closing data, watching the market intraday is optional for precision stops.
The author's first rule is you do not try to compete on "natural talent, information, knowledge, or computer expertise" There are too many specialists that will run over you if you attempt to compete on these levels. (Do you agree)
The way he trades is strictly price action coupled with a few MAs. He says trading this way levels the field and gives us a chance to compete. The indicators used are the trend line (10 week SMA) short line (difference between 3 day SMA and 10 day SMA) and middle line. (16 day average of short line)
These lines are used to spot price energy flows on different time periods. The ideal situation is the trend line and middle line strongly pointing in the same direction. When these 2 lines are going together the equity is in "concurrent mode" and there is a trend. the short line is much less reliable than the first 2 and must be intrepreted more. When it's strongly positive it may be because short term price is rising quickly with the trend, or it may be because the short term price action is running out of steam. A very negative short line may mean the price is plummeting or building energy for a strong rally with a positive trend.
When the price gets shaky you look at the lines to determine when to exit. of the equity goes sideways for too long it's time to exit. Exits are also based off profit targets. For futures when 50%-100% margin profit has been reached look for a reason to leave. If it becomes a huge gainer (200% or more) look for reasons to stay.
That's the basic system, compare your 3 lines to anticipate the most likely direction for price. Exit when the stock looks shaky or a profit target has been hit.
There are a couple other rules such as using at put/calls ratios to help confirm you to go the other way. (Because the author believes options traders are frequently wrong) His spike rule tells you to give more respect to price spikes that are not news relatedand vice versa for news related spikes.
That's it. My experience so far has been disappointing, I can not anticipate price movements with any accuracy. I'm looking for the the trend line/middle line to go concurrent before I even consider a trade, once that happens I look at how strong the trend is and try to interpret what the short line is telling me about short term price movement. Frequently I will either misinterpret the short line and sell the stock as a a loser, other times the stock will do a little more sideways dancing causing me to exit, before taking off as anticipated. Sometimes I'll get in at just the right time and make a good trade but there aren't enough of these ones. If I make money it may be luck more than anything else. I'll end it here before I lose everyone, I look forward to your comments.
Well the method looks very solid but I just can't seem to apply it profitably. (on a paper account) I know a large part of the reason is because I really limit my trading hours, by the time I'm up and ready to trade there are about 3 hours left before close.
But perhaps a larger problem is my own inability to apply the system correctly. I thought I'd share the system to see what you guys had to say about it, like what you agree with, what you don't, what you would do differently. It's a long read so I really appreciate anyone who's willing to take their time to comment.
This is a few days - few weeks discretionary trend trading system. Buying is done usually at the open at market or with a limit order. Exits are discretionary based on profit margin and chart patterns indicating the end of a trend or indecisiveness. Wide stop losses are also used tightening up as the trend takes off. System is followed using EOD closing data, watching the market intraday is optional for precision stops.
The author's first rule is you do not try to compete on "natural talent, information, knowledge, or computer expertise" There are too many specialists that will run over you if you attempt to compete on these levels. (Do you agree)
The way he trades is strictly price action coupled with a few MAs. He says trading this way levels the field and gives us a chance to compete. The indicators used are the trend line (10 week SMA) short line (difference between 3 day SMA and 10 day SMA) and middle line. (16 day average of short line)
These lines are used to spot price energy flows on different time periods. The ideal situation is the trend line and middle line strongly pointing in the same direction. When these 2 lines are going together the equity is in "concurrent mode" and there is a trend. the short line is much less reliable than the first 2 and must be intrepreted more. When it's strongly positive it may be because short term price is rising quickly with the trend, or it may be because the short term price action is running out of steam. A very negative short line may mean the price is plummeting or building energy for a strong rally with a positive trend.
When the price gets shaky you look at the lines to determine when to exit. of the equity goes sideways for too long it's time to exit. Exits are also based off profit targets. For futures when 50%-100% margin profit has been reached look for a reason to leave. If it becomes a huge gainer (200% or more) look for reasons to stay.
That's the basic system, compare your 3 lines to anticipate the most likely direction for price. Exit when the stock looks shaky or a profit target has been hit.
There are a couple other rules such as using at put/calls ratios to help confirm you to go the other way. (Because the author believes options traders are frequently wrong) His spike rule tells you to give more respect to price spikes that are not news relatedand vice versa for news related spikes.
That's it. My experience so far has been disappointing, I can not anticipate price movements with any accuracy. I'm looking for the the trend line/middle line to go concurrent before I even consider a trade, once that happens I look at how strong the trend is and try to interpret what the short line is telling me about short term price movement. Frequently I will either misinterpret the short line and sell the stock as a a loser, other times the stock will do a little more sideways dancing causing me to exit, before taking off as anticipated. Sometimes I'll get in at just the right time and make a good trade but there aren't enough of these ones. If I make money it may be luck more than anything else. I'll end it here before I lose everyone, I look forward to your comments.
