I have posted about this before. Boehner has a huge problem named Michelle Bachmann. The freshmen Tea Party-backed congressmen can be marginalized, coerced or coopted. Not Bachmann. She raised more money than any House republican, and in this town, money talks. Loudly.
She is more than a leader to the Tea Party caucus. She gives them credibility and backbone. There is only so much Boehner, Cantor and Ryan can do before they will get a ton of blowback, and they know it. Bachmann alone owuld be just a pain in the neck, the Tea party guys alone would be a nuisance, but the combination is deadly for the leadership.
Boehner, Cantor and Ryan are not evil, but they are caught between Bachmann and the establishment republicans, who fear a government shutdown above all else. That of course kills their ability to negotiate. The democrats know that when push comes to shove, Boehner will fold. In fact, he folded preemptively, always the sign of a poor negotiator.
The situation is not that different from the NFL CBA negotiations. If you are afraid of a lost season, you can't drive a hard deal. If you are a republican and still carry scars from the '95 government shutdown, you will give a lot to avoid a repeat.
None of this is reason to try to defeat Boehner, but it does raise questions about his tenure as Speaker. If Bachmann acquits herself well in the presidential debates, look for a strong push for her to be the next Speaker.