TBT long play

I figured that it would go down some in an equity swoon. Never thought it would go down this much and this fast. The "risk-off" trade is on.....soon, the banks will be lending at zero percent !!!
Can this get any crazier or what ?
 
You know what they say stocks go up in steps and they fall down the ladder ...

The only puts that look good to me right now are TOL, LEN, DHI - I bought TOL Jan 13 puts just now. It's pretty hard for me to buy puts on stocks that are down even though I might think a stock is going lower. Going long HOV might be a good pairs trade against those puts. I figure if housing stocks haven't gone BK by now they won't ...

Silver/Gold are up today on QE hope ... I'm long PAL
 
Quote from syswizard:

I figured that it would go down some in an equity swoon. Never thought it would go down this much and this fast. The "risk-off" trade is on.....soon, the banks will be lending at zero percent !!!
Can this get any crazier or what ?
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That's the question. Can it really?
 
Quote from tortoise:

fyi, re: TBT and equity indexes


http://peterosterlund.com/2012/05/16/stock-market-rally-2/
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That guy is wrong IMO ~ he's predicting a rally in the stock market

TLT and SPY moving up together since October just doesn't make sense.

Come August assuming the market doesn't go crazy one way or another it will be very interesting to see where TLT/TBT are trading as Operation Twist will have been over long enough for T-Bills to sort themselves out.

(Also assuming we don't have another QE/LOTRO which could put a wrench in being long TBT.)
 
Quote from Whistlingleaf:


(Also assuming we don't have another QE/LOTRO which could put a wrench in being long TBT.)
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Leaf - be careful...this is an ELECTION YEAR...all past relationships are now overridden by this event.
QE3 will definitely be in place by September.
In the mean time, TBT going to all time lows.
Buy later.
 
No way they will do QE3 before the elections ~ our economy is getting in better and better shape although it's still far from good.

It's possible that we support the Euros in some way in LOTRO-3-something.

Still getting killed on TBT but at least I also did that TLT spread which I will try and sell this week. (Tried on Friday but no fill.)

If the Euros come up with some Euro bond akin to our Treasuries it should kill TLT as Euros take money out of TLT and start buying up their own bonds. Process might take half a year to really get going, but it will kill TLT imo ~

OT ending should also put pressure on TLT ...

Oh and I think we might see a spike in TLT though if Greece exits without any type of corresponding EU action, but I think the Euros will have to act cause Spain is looking like it might tip as their banks are getting clobbered and the Euros can NOT afford a bank run in other PIIGS countries. If the leftist guy wins in Greece on Jun 17th that would be bad for TBT as he wants to ditch the Euro.

If Greece doesn't leave until Jan 1, 2013 I think the TLT might kick around where it is now (unfortunately), but that would make TBT a great trade in 2013.
 
Quote from Whistlingleaf:

No way they will do QE3 before the elections ~ our economy is getting in better and better shape although it's still far from good.

but that would make TBT a great trade in 2013.
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Interesting thoughts. Is the all-time low "in" for TBT ?
I think it is, but I don't expect it to go straight-up at all until that 2013 time-frame.
 
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