TBT long play

In the futures market, that's EXACTLY what happened.
The 10 year note rate went up, and then reversed.

This could be the bottom for rates for quite some time. After this "flight to safety", everyone is going to look at their pathetic returns and move back to equities.
 
TBT has bounced off 25 level twice now....that definitely indicates a short-term bottom. However, if we swoon this fall, that could definitely be taken out.
 
Jan 30 or 31/40 1x2 call spread for .35 is the play especially if you are a position trader



Whats your thoughts on why the OTM calls were trading at 50% plus vol??



Quote from syswizard:

TBT has soared to 27.50 today !!
Last chance to short the puts was this morning.
25 appears to be the short-term bottom.
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Quote from tradewiz:

Dec'11 30/35 call ratio (1x2) spread bought for 0.13. let's see if we can get there by December.
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I think that's a bit too far out. Maybe the 28-32's.....I could see.
This economy is going to have to start roaring soon for rates to rise.
I don' see it happening.
 
Quote from taowave:



Whats your thoughts on why the OTM calls were trading at 50% plus vol??
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Just skittishness over the flooding of liquidity by central banks right now....and the effect down the road in terms of stronger economies, and higher demand for money.
Higher demand = higher rates ahead

I'm not sure I am in that camp however.
Again, I'd rather play the "rates aren't moving much" theme.
Sell credit spreads or straddles.
 
TBT back down once again....nearing 52 week lows.

If S&P 500 retests recent lows....there's even more downside here.
But I would say this next move is the final one down.
 
New lows.....23.35. Well, at least I called it.
I knew if equities tanked, the dumb money would come flying into bonds.

Now where is the bottom ?
I guess now that I'm asking it, it's probably finally at this level !!
 
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