Target missed by one tick

[Alpha Trader]

In saying that, all comes back to your strategy. If your strategy has an edge and by you've stuck to your rules, then sometimes you just have to accept that sometimes sh!t happens.... Just my 2 cents though....

Very well said, ManInJapan. This above statement would be an exception to what I stated in the above post.

 

[Visaria]

Did the trade come within 1 tick while watching it occur in real-time or did it come within 1 tick while away from the computer considering it was mentioned it was a position trade ?

If the latter, not anything you can do and just be happy you're following the trading plan that enable you to get a profit out of the trade. Yet, if this is a consistent problem (profitable trades getting close to profit targets and then retracing), revise your profit target (exit strategy).

Yet, if you were watching it in real-time when it came within 1 tick of the target...you need to improve your recognition of a trade position that won't reach its target prior to it hitting your profitable trail stop.

I didn't see the high in real time. When i did look, the market was 1 point (4 ticks) away, so i figured it might as well go back up. But it didn't.

 

[Visaria]

When trading, you aim to play optimally; mind, body and soul.

A loss of income in this manner over a period of time can reinforce negative psychology. When this happens, you start second guessing your target price (and second guessing in this game mostly has negative results). This is not because you're not decently good at it, but more because your faith in your ability has diminished due to previous results.

I have tried having defined targets and would stick to them and then I have tried to allow myself a little "dancing" space. If I get a $0.23 move and my target was $0.25, I'll take the $0.23 as opposed to having it trail back and take me out at $0.15. I just lost $0.08 for the sake of gaining $0.02! Statistically, that strategy is flawed.

With trying both methods for extensive periods of time. The result in the post above shows that being a little flexible has a better outcome in the long run.

The same principles have worked well with me on entries.

I agree that it is demoralising.

With regard to your example, haven't you really just changed your target from $0.25 to $0.23?

 

[Alpha Trader]

With regard to your example, haven't you really just changed your target from $0.25 to $0.23?

Visaria, the numbers were just an example. What I tend to do is watch the price action. If it seems that the move is reluctant to get to my target, but is close enough, then it's time to ring the register. Ocassionally, if the action shows a reluctance for another leg up/down, I will still take profits far from my target; maybe leave a small portion on.

For me, it's mostly about how the action is playing out and taking profits.

If there is rejection, I will add my position back on.

 

[xelite777]

When this happens, you start second guessing your target price (and second guessing in this game mostly has negative results). This is not because you're not decently good at it, but more because your faith in your ability has diminished due to previous results.

Absolutely.

And that's the problem with discretionary trading: NO clearly defined trading rules, so the trader is always asking himself questions like : "Should I do this or should I do that?".

And then all discipline goes down the drain. Because, once again, there are NO clearly defined trading rules.

In fact you cannot even know for sure if your system has ANY predictive power to begin with, for the simple reason that discretionary systems are almost impossible to backtest.

 

[ras72]

I had a position trade (so not day trading) on one of the grains. I had a profit target and i put a limit order to exit if it hit that. The market went to 1 tick of my order and then retraced. Today, I was stopped out at my trailing stop, so still made money, but only half of what i could have made.

Suggestions please on what to do when a trade almost hits your target, but doesn't.

The only remedy compatible with your trading is to replace the single exit with a relatively narrow scale out zone. That will prevent the emotional effects tied to extreme outcomes.
Other solutions imply changing your approach which I assume you don't want to do.

Although "lower your target by 1 tick" is funny.

ras72

"If I don't understand what someone is saying, it means he doesn't know what he is talking about" ras72

 

[xelite777]

The only remedy compatible with your trading is to replace the single exit with a relatively narrow scale out zone. That will prevent the emotional effects tied to extreme outcomes.
Other solutions imply changing your approach which I assume you don't want to do.

Although "lower your target by 1 tick" is funny.

ras72

"If I don't understand what someone is saying, it means he doesn't know what he is talking about" ras72

Scaling out (exiting a position in several planned increments as opposed to exiting the entire position at one time) usually works great if your system generates low risk/ high reward trades.

Otherwise watch out, the outcome becomes worse!

 

[Visaria]

had an order to buy back my short nikkei position at 14030.

Low of the day: 14035

 

[Wide Tailz]

Why didn't you just buy it when you saw the pivot?

 

[Visaria]

i did see the "low" being made, just happened to be glancing at the market, i don't normally watch during the day.

I changed the limit order to an OCO with the limit at 14030 and the stop being a certain distance away.

Market went up , wasn't too far from the stop, but fortunately came back down overnight and was filled at 14030.