Taper talk

D

drownpruf

"We'll be watching" will be in the release. No mention of a date or reduction in notional. No friggin' way the bearded one would do it in front of XMAS and the transition to Yellen.

Remains at $85B
No date
"We're diligent" yada yada.
 
Having watched currencies for a few months, it seems that any theories posited the day before an event/announcement is intended to get retail customers leaning the wrong way, thereby providing the liquidity needed for a sustained big move.

The rumor is enhanced if a sharp counter-move also takes place.

For example, today's taper talk, it's intended to draw shorts into the EUR/USD. To help the rumor, a sharp move from 1.3775 to 1.3720 took place this morning.

I'm expecting another downward move between now and Midnight EST. It'll then eventually settle between 1.3750-1.3770 until the announcement

My bet - big breakout to towards 1.39 tomorrow and a test of 1.40 by Friday.
 
I thought for sure there would be nothing at first, but now a few things point to a pretty good probability of some sort of reduction. I would put it over 50%, which seems to not be the consensus at all.
 
Quote from drownpruf:

"We'll be watching" will be in the release. No mention of a date or reduction in notional. No friggin' way the bearded one would do it in front of XMAS and the transition to Yellen.

Remains at $85B
No date
"We're diligent" yada yada.
More...

Good point. I don't think He wants to see the market go into withdrawals while He is still there.

I don't see any changes hitting the fan tomorrow.
 
I see the percentages on the image, do we have a true over / under on taper / no taper??

Even odds, or is there a true feeling of what's going to happen, if anything?


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