TAN

[oldnemesis]

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2016/06/09/3786417/solar-beats-coal-oil-gas/

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/09/us-solar-market-to-nearly-double-in-2016-led-by-utilities.html

https://www.thestreet.com/story/13436850/1/this-solar-stock-could-rise-nearly-75-in-2016.html

https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/206619/solar-etfs-to-shine-in-2016

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=TAN+Interactive#{"range":"2y","allowChartStacking":true}

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=tan

Trade:
With TAN at 21.66
Jan 16/11 bull put spread for a net credit of $45
Yield = 45/455 = 9.9% in 225 days or 16% annualized
Prob = 85%
Expectation = .85(45) - .01(455) - .14(228) = 38.25 - 4.55 - 31.92 = 1.75

Price........ Profit / Loss........ ROM %
8.00............. (455.00)........... -90.10%
11.00........... (455.00)........... -90.10%
11.86........... (368.70)........... -73.74%
15.55................ 0.00............... 0.00%
15.67............... 11.60.............. 2.32%
16.00............... 45.00.............. 9.90%
20.00............... 45.00.............. 9.90%
25.00............... 45.00.............. 9.90%
30.00............... 45.00.............. 9.90%

You have to ask yourself the question: Has TAN bottomed out???

 

[J_Smith]

Apparently not - risky play going long by the looks of things - much better opps out there to choose from.

J_S

 

[oldnemesis]

"much better opps"

Really? Tell us about them



TAN had a really bad day today. How low can an ETF go? Can it go to zero? How about negative... where someone would pay you to take it off their hands.

But, given the rosy picture being painted for the near future of solar maybe a debit spread with better
R/R. would be more appropriate.
e.g.
with TAN closing at 20.65
Jan '17 16/20 bull call spread for a net debit of $285:
Potential yield = 115/285 = 40.35%
Prob = ???

Price................. Profit / Loss.......... ROI %
12.00.................... (285.00).......... -100.00%
14.65.................... (285.00).......... -100.00%
16.00.................... (285.00).......... -100.00%
17.44.................... (140.90)............ -49.44%
18.85......................... 0.00................ 0.00%
20.00...................... 115.00.............. 40.35%
20.23...................... 115.00.............. 40.35%
23.02...................... 115.00.............. 40.35%
25.81...................... 115.00.............. 40.35%

Of course TAN is highly volatile and not for the feint of heart... and I certainly wouldn't do any long until I saw some signs of a bottom.

I'll wait a couple of months.

 

[J_Smith]

J_S