A few comments:
I see you made an early morning trade on the short side, on which you took a quick loss. Smart trade. Here's what I don't understand. In the next 45 minutes approximately we moved around 27 points higher, during which you made no trades at all. During that upmove we made 3 penants, which would seem to fit directly into your methods. What happened?
And this gets to what I believe the problem is with your method. A 2 point move in this market is largely random. A two point move in either directlon can happen for almost no reason at all. I believe you know this at some level, and because you trade too large a size you are therefore fearful. What else would explain no trade in that 27 point upmove?
If you're going to trade, TRADE. You don't need a 15 minute chart as you stated in some of your original posts.
Frankly, I think you're trading with a flawed method. A one lot traded on the upside today would have given you as much as you make on a great day trading 5 lots....assuming you gave it some room to move.
Sometimes traders of the futures focus on too small a picture. Have you ever looked at Trin for example? Are you aware that today trin dropped under .40? Are you aware that moves down with trin under .40 are rare late in the day? Do you think you could have used this information to your advantage?
I think you're way too busy overtrading your account with 5 lots to see a little bigger picture. Let's say you trade a 5 lot with a 2 point stop. That means you're risking $500. Why not trade a one lot with a 10 point stop. Still a $500 risk....but the odds of losing drop if you've selected the trade correctly, and if you've bought a set back in a strong trend.
At noon eastern time trin was hovering between .40 and .50...a low and bullish reading. About that time they dumped ES as the easterners went to lunch. We traded down to 786. 786 was a 38% retracement of the move up. Tick traded down to -750 or so. Could you have bought a one lot here, with a wide stop? Why not? Do you realize we traded about 20 points higher later in the day? If I'm not mistaken this beats your 5 lot trading on most days.
Now, admittedly we're talking about hindsight. My point though is that there are other methods of trading....methods that would probably INCREASE your odds of success. But you would have to learn to pick your spots, set wider stops, and reduce the size of your trading. You would also have to learn a few new tricks....like the fact that the stock market is comprised of a whole lot more than a couple of points one way or the other on the ES.
Tell me to mind my own business and I will stop making these suggestions. But frankly, your trading doesn't look like it's working all that well....and maybe I'm just the voice you need to change your thrust a little.
By the way, I'm not suggesting that you set 10 point stops necessarily. It's an illustration. Making counter trend trades on a day of the strength of today (again defined by trin) is a suckers move in my opinion. Personally on days like today I LOVE to make trades where we take out some type of short term perceived support...because I'll fade that trend every time....it's a high odds trade. But you do need to give them TIME to work.
OldTrader
