Originally posted by tampa
The Bottom Line: 3RT/-87.50
In my humble opinion (remember, itâs the only one that counts) it was a nearly untradeable day! Sharp run-ups, followed by sharp run-downs, followed by a lot of chop â YUCK!
Gosh....that description of sharp moves followed by chop pretty much describes EVERY day, doesn't it? My opinion of course. Doesn't mean it's untradeable though.
Allow me to offer a suggestion. Why don't you put your trade on, put your stop in....then go take a nap? Problem solved....can't get out early if you're asleep now can you?
My view is that leaping out early is a function of lack of confidence in the method, together with lack of confidence in yourself. Now I can't pretend to know why you have that lack of confidence....unless it is a function of the money that you say you've lost in the past.
This short skirt trade strikes me as a flag like pattern. I presume you understand that a flag is a continuation pattern....a marker if you will for an established trend. In conventional chart theory they're even used as measuring devices....you can read alot about this in Edwards and McGee. Beyond this, basic Elliot Wave Theory might help you to understand a little about where and at what place flags might tend to appear.
Here's the bottom line though. You seem to analyze the market in virtually every time frame from 1 minute to 15 minutes. You know where the 10 day average is. Ok, so I'm assuming that after all this analysis you must know the direction of trend. So why not wait for a reaction against the trend, then put your position on and SIT there.
Jump in and out? Why? Trends persist longer than most of us ever dream....certainly longer than 3 points, or .25 or whatever. But in a strong trend reactions that exceed let's say 3-5 points are infrequent.
I thought today was a great trading day. Notice I said "great", not easy.
Personally I missed the first move up....I coulda kicked myself over that one but I didn't....I just watched in amazement.
I bought the hard break....about a 2/3 retracement....that lost me a little money.
I sold the ES 3 other times following that which made my loss back....and a healthy profit to boot. Tradeable? Yep. Easy? Nope.
Identify the trend. Get in on a retracement of the trend. Place a stop that makes sense. Then SIT there. That "chop" that you refer to that evidently bores you? That's just the market getting ready to make it's next move....these should interest you MORE than the subsequent trends....they are the way you identify the coming trend. That chop typically takes place at an important spot...today for example most of it took place in a range from just below the low of YESTERDAY up to the opening price of today. Can you think of any reason that would interest you?
There's some BIG moves that take place...particularly lately. Just position yourself and let the market do a little work for you while you take a nap.
OldTrader