Indeed markets went on to do very well after 2018, because they changed the narrative to full dovish very very quickly after the rate hike attempt.
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Talked about "talking about talking about tapering"
- Thread starter kmiklas
- Start date
Indeed markets went on to do very well after 2018, because they changed the narrative to full dovish very very quickly after the rate hike attempt.
Same sort of thing. The notions of "rate hikes" and "tapering" are all about liquidity and "reigning-in the availability and price of credit". Any restriction is a negative... but "how much" of a negative? Enough to derail the economy or markets or more of a "bother for now"?
I don't recall any talk of "taper" until Bernanke's reign of terror. We don't have much in the way of precedent. After the market's "taper tantrum" in Bernanke's time (a decline of ~5% if I recall), the markets resumed advance.
Of course THIS time the market is so extended that even the 1st sign of reigning-in credit might send the markets into apoplexy. Or could just lead to a bigger correction before the advance resumes which seems more likely.
The stock indices may just chop in a range, but it's starting to look like lights-out for the fringe areas of extreme speculative mania that popped up over the last few years: in crypto, shitcos (many of these have already crashed 50%+), the ARK-Invest complex including TSLA, and meme trades like AMC, GME, and Silver. Time will tell.
What kind of gibberish is this?I'm not sure re-writing an event to fit your present day theories will really work in trading. Although it does work with MSM fake news reporting. Fed reports and Fed monetary policy changes are my first and foremost concern as a trader. I try to block out the other white noise during these times.
Short memories by Americans is an epidemic of its own. Blind thinking and reinventing the wheel at each new turn. Its just amazing. And its usually political... China, Russia, Iran are all great diversions when the US makes a structural decision. I stay far away.