Talk me out of averaging up!

upload_2023-7-25_22-41-31.jpeg
 
Got lucky: went long Oil futures (Sept CL) @ $74.62. (1 contract, I'm small fish). Next thing I know, off to the races, now $78.80 or so.
So I'm thinking let's double up and put a stop loss at cost, $76.71, so I'm riding on House money: moves up I win, moves down no loss.
Looks brilliant, don't it?
Reason I'm asking is I hate the technicals: 50DMA way below 200DMA, looks like a slow death curl on longer time frame. Only positive is it pierced up both 200 and 50DMA.
What's y'all's opinion? Don't mean I'll follow it, but I'd like to know: Listen to all first and do as you think then.

Look at it this way. Take 4K now guaranteed with no potential for any more profit or loss, or do what you are thinking and get 2K guaranteed with potential for profit between 2K and infinity.
 
Got lucky: went long Oil futures (Sept CL) @ $74.62. (1 contract, I'm small fish). Next thing I know, off to the races, now $78.80 or so.
So I'm thinking let's double up and put a stop loss at cost, $76.71, so I'm riding on House money: moves up I win, moves down no loss.
Looks brilliant, don't it?
Reason I'm asking is I hate the technicals: 50DMA way below 200DMA, looks like a slow death curl on longer time frame. Only positive is it pierced up both 200 and 50DMA.
What's y'all's opinion? Don't mean I'll follow it, but I'd like to know: Listen to all first and do as you think then.

This is generally a bad mindset. There is no "house money". You've increased the equity in your account by taking a hopefully predetermined risk. Unless you were planning on trailing your stop from the beginning, there's no reason to move your stop loss now. Without data to show otherwise, there's just as much as chance of the position moving back to your entry price before it continues moving forward - stopping you out before the trade continues on for the reason you took it without you being in.

Unless your intention is to gamble, then by all means, do whatever you want but it is somewhat similar to playing craps and asking the other players at the table whether you should change to the don't pass line because the pass line just hit for you.
 
i personally would never add on to an already winning position, i want to add on when the market is against me if i have a positive expectation method.

that said i do know of long term traders who do add on to a winning position and do well.

also there are traders who could not trade themselves out of a paper bag.
 
This is generally a bad mindset. There is no "house money". You've increased the equity in your account by taking a hopefully predetermined risk. Unless you were planning on trailing your stop from the beginning, there's no reason to move your stop loss now. Without data to show otherwise, there's just as much as chance of the position moving back to your entry price before it continues moving forward - stopping you out before the trade continues on for the reason you took it without you being in.

Unless your intention is to gamble, then by all means, do whatever you want but it is somewhat similar to playing craps and asking the other players at the table whether you should change to the don't pass line because the pass line just hit for you.
%%
Exactly;
+ ''luck'' is a gamblers term + no such thing as luck:D:D
XOM + CVX are above 50dma;
same way with a lot of related ETFs.
TX Tea + related/ barchart.com has an 88% buy;
XOM + CVX related ETFs have much less risk; above 50dma.
Beverly Brillant Hillbillies song;
one day shootin' @ some crude /
up from the ground come a bubbling crude/ > 1,577,777 Video views LOL.In our favor not many believe in a climate change scam. Nothing like a good gun+ shooting @ some food:caution::caution:
 
Look at it this way. Take 4K now guaranteed with no potential for any more profit or loss, or do what you are thinking and get 2K guaranteed with potential for profit between 2K and infinity.
%%
GOOD;
or sell[exit] some stuff \
+ stay in in some[different] better trending stuff with more profit potential + dividends..............................
But like IBD founding father [ WO'N] noted ''NEVER buy for a dividend'':D:D
In this plan, you are doing somewhat of a scale out[100% exit] + let profits run elsewhere also.
OIL + gas has gone negative before\
on a more positive note, the profit potential ETFs have never gone to zero.
 
Back
Top