Taliban in Kabul as President Flees

Trying to figure the Taliban's calculus here...

On one hand... if the Taliban continues its charm rouse they seem to understand that they are getting instant recognition of their "government" even from the United States who is forced to do business with them.

On the other hand... the Taliban could pull off an epic long-term hostage situation and likely reap billions in US cash in the short term. Y'know... release a few hostages occasionally while demanding cash and prizes. They could string that out for *years*.

Tough call but I say they will grab the cash and worry about the consequences never.
Your right, that is the end game
They will keep the last 500 Americans
No way is the Taliban going to let everyone get to the airport
At some point they will lockdown the airport zone for "security reasons"

They will demand
*To be recognized as the Government
*To have funds unfrozen (they will claim it is starving children)
*To renounce and stop all support and funding of the revolt happening in the North
 
Its an indicator that he is running in 2024

Also true is that he formed a PAC this year allegedly to help get conservatives elected, so he basically has a full-time sales job. Gotta look good to ring that cash register, unless your first name is Hunter.
 
Your right, that is the end game
They will keep the last 500 Americans
No way is the Taliban going to let everyone get to the airport
At some point they will lockdown the airport zone for "security reasons"

They will demand
*To be recognized as the Government
*To have funds unfrozen (they will claim it is starving children)
*To renounce and stop all support and funding of the revolt happening in the North
The Taliban has never controlled Northeast Afghanistan. Too many Tajiks and Uzbeks up there and they all speak Pashtun. There was a Northern Alliance but its leader was assassinated by Al Qaeda.
 
Trump isn't the president, Obama isn't the president, Bush isn't the president, Biden is the president. He has the power to handle this however he likes. He has the power to scrap any previous plans. All of this, one hundred percent, is on him and his administration. The bottom line is the Biden administration has stranded somewhere between 2500 and 15,000 American citizens behind enemy lines creating the potential for the largest hostage situation we've ever seen. Any and every injury/casualty that happens to these people is on him and his team of buffoons

So, you can check my thoughts on this whole AFG mess and notice I don’t put blame on any previous Presidents, and specifically state this is on Biden.

However, it does not benefit the general discourse to not have complete understanding of how we got here. Nor does help to pretend Biden would have just been able scrap Trump’s deal without enormous consequences in Afghanistan and the brunt of it being taken by the US military.

This is not to say Biden didn’t make choices and decisions and promote messages that did not lead to this. All I’m saying is that a full account is what is needed to get a truthful understanding. And if you don’t have truth then you don’t have understanding. And a lot of people now of days believe in things they don’t understand.
 
The Taliban has never controlled Northeast Afghanistan. Too many Tajiks and Uzbeks up there and they all speak Pashtun. There was a Northern Alliance but its leader was assassinated by Al Qaeda.
I heard today that they have reclaimed 2 provinces.
The Taliban really don't control the country...They have a small military in each capital, but they don't control the administration of those states
 
The Taliban has never controlled Northeast Afghanistan. Too many Tajiks and Uzbeks up there and they all speak Pashtun. There was a Northern Alliance but its leader was assassinated by Al Qaeda.

It's complicated. Most Taliban are Pashtuns.

In fact that is one of the not-so-little problems that Pakistan has created for itself. The Pakistanis promoted and supported and advanced the Taliban in AFG but most of the Taliban are Pashtuns and the taliban/pashtuns are even more conservative then the Pakistani government and powers that. The tricky part is that the Pashtun homeland straddles the border with Pakistun and there are actually more pashtuns in Pakistan. So therein lies the problem for the Pakistan- an empowered Taliban is an empowered Pashtun and they will be empowered in Pakistan too.

Fun, fun, fun, since daddy took the T-Bird away.
 
Its an indicator that he is running in 2024
Yeah that's what I thought too.
I mean I only saw his face as he was talking, but for real, it didn't even look like the same guy.


Anyway.... i went on YouTube and found what I was talking about.

I queued it:


:rolleyes:
 
The are terrified into inaction by the possibility of wounded servicemen while trying to recover civilians. They are more terrified by that than they are of stories of atrocities against US citizens.

Once servicemen or women are wounded or killed trying to fix this shitshow there will be serious consequences.

LOL ok there won't be ANY consequences but it was a nice fantasy for a few seconds...
 
This is a pretty good timeline - critical of both Trump and Biden - on the drawdown and withdrawal of the US military from Afghanistan:

2/29/20: There are 13,000 US troops there. Trump reaches deal with Taliban. Agrees Afghanistan Gov, which is not part of deal, will release 5,000 Taliban fighters. Requires Taliban...1

...to take action against al Qaeda, not to attack US troops or coalition forces, or launch high-profile attacks.
3/1/20: Afghan president freaks out, says US has no authority to commit to release prisoners held by Afghanistan. (Trump Admin forces it to happen anyway.)
...2

...
Despite there agreement not to attack any provincial capitals, Taliban unilaterally attacks Afghan forces in Helmand province.
3/19/2020: DOD IG says U.S. cut troop levels by more than 4,000, even though “Taliban escalated violence further after signing the agreement"...3

8/18/2020: DOD IG releases report saying Taliban didnt distance itself from terrorist organizations in Afghanistan. UN and U.S. "Taliban continued to support al-Qaeda, and conducted joint attacks with al-Qaeda members against Afghan National Defense and Security Forces.”...4


...in other words *every element of the agreement - dont attack, renounce terrorists, don't work with terrorists - had been violated.
9/3/2020: Afghanistan, pressured by Trump, has been releasing the 5,000 Taliban in jail. Last 400 released this day. They return to fighting...5

...9/16/2020: In continued violation of the Trump agreement, Taliban - reportedly working with al Qaeda - attacks 3 provinces in Northern Afghanistan....

...Immediately after election, Trump Admin leaks theyre going to do a massive, rapid withdrawal of US troops before inauguration. Distressed by reports, Rubio warns of “a Saigon-type of situation." McConnell says "would hurt our allies & delight the people who wish us harm"...6

11/17/2020: Without consulting with incoming administration, which is still being blocked from security briefings, Trump Admin announces rapid withdrawal of troops down to 2,500 by 5 days before inauguration. That's down from 13,000 the year before....7

...this was playing with people's lives. This was incompetence writ large. But here is where Biden screws up - by not more fully reversing the nonsense Trump had done.
2/3/2021: Afghan Study Group, created by Congress, urges Biden to abandon the Trump timetable, and set.../8

...withdrawal on all sides - both Afghan government and Taliban - meeting all commitments under a peace framework that had been reached. So, it would be based on status, not date.
3/25: Gen Richard Clarke of Central Op Command says Taliban has not met its obligations...9

...under treaties & frameworks.
4/14: Biden sets a deadline of 9/11 for getting out of Afghanistan, ignoring recommendation of the working group. This is the big mistake.
4/18: Trump rants and raves, saying Biden should start pulling everyone out beginning in about 2 weeks...10

...so yes, Biden made a mistake. But we are dealing with a situation where the former president pulled down troop levels to a ridiculous level just five days before inauguration, ignored attacks and violations of a treaty he hit, and pretended he had succeeded. He gave them...11


....5,000 fighters. I mean, look at this: The Taliban was violating *every term* of the treaty, and Trump pulled out 1000s of troops. Other than setting ourselves up for a firefight with the Taliban, the only options seemed to be bringing people back in, changing the timeline..12

...or this. I dont know. Its a cluster. Im not even sure I can call what Biden did a mistake. Did they have intel that the Taliban, which had been moving forward since Trump struck his stupid deal, was planning to attack our troops? Who were way outmanned? I dont know. But...13

...this idea that this had some other easy solution or if - instead, as Rubio & McConnell said in December - the rapid drawdown of troops by Trump set up a disaster, a Saigon-type situation that was handed off to Biden, I don't know. But this is what you get when you...14

...allow violations of treaties, petulant troop withdrawals, and media who seems to have no memory, and a political party hopeful that no one will remember. I am not excusing Biden. I just want experts to say,given the actual situation he was handed, how it should have been done.
Its shows how much the political class is influenced by polls
Both parties are aware that 75% of the public want out. To a politician that is a lot of pressure.
Its leads to haste decisions based on wishful thinking
Its all about the exit process, Its easy to remove the first group of people ....planning is needed for the last group of people and it cant be planned until you are ready to move...that is all on Biden
 
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Trump isn't the president, Obama isn't the president, Bush isn't the president, Biden is the president. He has the power to handle this however he likes. He has the power to scrap any previous plans. All of this, one hundred percent, is on him and his administration. The bottom line is the Biden administration has stranded somewhere between 2500 and 15,000 American citizens behind enemy lines creating the potential for the largest hostage situation we've ever seen. Any and every injury/casualty that happens to these people is on him and his team of buffoons

CASE CLOSED
 
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