Everyone, and I mean everyone, is buying into the Jimmy Rogers 'equity indexes are going to soar in nominal terms because the reflation trick is going to work' theory, and when the reflation trick gets slammed by the malignant and persistent deflation train, there's going to be a ton of bagholders.
Gold is also peaky. Crude? Forget it.
You have no real purchasing power in the biggest economy in the world, and Chinese Officials dramatically lowering expectations as they see their production, exports AND imports plunge (and if you think China's bad, wait until you get a load of Japan).
How in the hell are you going to get real inflation in the few essentials Americans still will need to buy on a globe where unemployment rates are spiking (20% in Spain, on that track in Ireland, we'll be hitting 12% in the U.S. w/in 8 months 'officially'), credit criteria for lending is tightening, discretionary spending is plunging
I can go and buy milk, corn, chicken, beef, bread, eggs, a new car, a vacation, a plane ticket, a house and land cheaper now than I could last year, in 2007, in 2006, in 2005, in 2004, etc., etc., and you'll be able to add gasoline (you already can to some degree) and natural gas to that list soon, along with gold and silver (diamonds and art are already deflation-battled).
If Julian Robertson is correct in his main trade (shorting long end treasuries expecting rampant monetary inflation), then we will have a depression.
What do you get when you have $1.77 per gallon milk and 18% interest rates on a 10 Year Treasury, and income tax rates that are 20% to 40% higher than now, along with possible introduction of VAT taxes in the U.S.?
A deflation death spiral and a depression. Everyone with cash will save their asses off and money will literally run for 10 Year, 20 Year and 30 Year Treasuries. I'll buy 10 year treasuries at 12% to 18% ALL DAY LONG. And I'll buy 30 Year ones at anything above 16% hand over fist.
Consumer and small business spending will grind to a halt. Savings will skyrocket.
It'll be a stand-off at the O.K. Coral.
Robertson can be right and Rogers very, very wrong in this scenario.
Gold is also peaky. Crude? Forget it.
You have no real purchasing power in the biggest economy in the world, and Chinese Officials dramatically lowering expectations as they see their production, exports AND imports plunge (and if you think China's bad, wait until you get a load of Japan).
How in the hell are you going to get real inflation in the few essentials Americans still will need to buy on a globe where unemployment rates are spiking (20% in Spain, on that track in Ireland, we'll be hitting 12% in the U.S. w/in 8 months 'officially'), credit criteria for lending is tightening, discretionary spending is plunging
I can go and buy milk, corn, chicken, beef, bread, eggs, a new car, a vacation, a plane ticket, a house and land cheaper now than I could last year, in 2007, in 2006, in 2005, in 2004, etc., etc., and you'll be able to add gasoline (you already can to some degree) and natural gas to that list soon, along with gold and silver (diamonds and art are already deflation-battled).
If Julian Robertson is correct in his main trade (shorting long end treasuries expecting rampant monetary inflation), then we will have a depression.
What do you get when you have $1.77 per gallon milk and 18% interest rates on a 10 Year Treasury, and income tax rates that are 20% to 40% higher than now, along with possible introduction of VAT taxes in the U.S.?
A deflation death spiral and a depression. Everyone with cash will save their asses off and money will literally run for 10 Year, 20 Year and 30 Year Treasuries. I'll buy 10 year treasuries at 12% to 18% ALL DAY LONG. And I'll buy 30 Year ones at anything above 16% hand over fist.
Consumer and small business spending will grind to a halt. Savings will skyrocket.
It'll be a stand-off at the O.K. Coral.
Robertson can be right and Rogers very, very wrong in this scenario.
