Taking 76K to 500K by Year End

neke · Nov 17, 2007

Quote from asap:

neke

why have you stopped using the automated strategies in the last couple of weeks? still with ninja? not happy with the code? problem with executions in options? care to to explain?

thanks

As you can see the automated strategies have failed to perform. I was doing well with AUTOTRADE1 (even well before the start of the thread), and had factored in a monthly performance of say 8%, until about mid-July. The market kind of changed, and I was incurring deep drawdown; so first I reduced size and then stopped completely. In retrospect it was the right thing to do, since the meltdown in August and now in November could have hit me pretty hard (it is a long only strategy).

I toughened the conditions for Autotrade2 because it was getting sub-optimal trades: since then it hasnt gotten any trade!

Autotrade 3 and 4,were experimental ideas, and apparently they failed ab initio.

neke · Nov 19, 2007

Quote from damnit:

Looking at the breakdown of your trades and clearly long options is what made you profitable so far. If you took this out of it you would be losing money. Therefore, you need to place your emphasis on options to hit your future goals.

You are right. I am disappointed by my performance in stocks, especially the long stock strategies (of course I had that hit of 47K on the long position in ICFI - week 12).

It is quite a reversal from last year (2006), where I lost 118K in options, and needed my stock trades (242K) to give me a +124K return for the year. I guess the message would be not to write off anything but apply myself to right what I am doing wrong. Glad I believed there are great potentials in options if done right.

midlifeguy · Nov 19, 2007

The market has totally sucked and is wiping out the retail guy with this crazy volatility.

Code:
Quote from neke:

Weekly Update for week 38 ended 11/16/2007

Horrible week. Glad I can look beyond the week, and the awful trading. Suffered a major option loss, without which I would have made an OK week.

The week began on a good note on Monday, shorting ETFC at 6.05 premarket, covering after market opened with that precipitous drop to 4.75, realising 39K (the stock closed the day at 3.55, so apparently left more than 30K on the table). Same day got mixed results trading the market sell-off. Bought BIDU calls earlier in the day, trying to pick the bottom, losing 25K. Fortunately made it back in the same stock near end of day with a put option.

Then came the awful Tuesday. Who knew you could loss so much on an immobile stock like WMT! Made some really bad decision buying the NOV 45 put after its earnings, and the rise in early trade, based on expectation that the stock does not hold on to its gains after earnings. However, this time it was different. Bought a total of 2000 contracts at average of $0.45! (first 1000 @ 0.55, next 1000 @ 0.35, averaging down on a loser). Eventually got out at $0.15 for a whopping 59K loss. Did so many things wrong: buying out of money put with 3 days to expiration not a good idea, taking on a size that is out of proportion to the trading volume on the contract (I probably accounted for one-quarter of the volume for the day) placing me at the mercy of the market maker with his bid-ask spread, ignoring the spread, and of course averaging down.

Whalloped by a whipsaw on Friday, shorting GRMN pre-market at 97.50, forced to cover 104.50 pre-market (who knew all that volume in pre-market was spurious), went long at 100.00 sold near the bottom for the day at 94.00. Total loss 17.5K. goooooooooooosh!

Need to trade cautiously next week.

Code:

Balance B/F: 240,411 Loss for the week -36,686 ------------------------------------------------ Balance C/F: 203,725 Number of Trades 23 Number of Profitable Trades 11 Since Inception of Thread 2/25/2007 - 11/16/2007 Balance B/F: 76,636 Net Gain (Less Margin Interest) 198,089 Cash Withdrawal -71,000 ------------------------------------------------ Balance C/F: 203,725 (Adjusted balance before withdrawals is 274725, up 255% ) Number of Trades 1030 Number of Profitable Trades 583 Expected Balance at this time to be on track for Year-End Target : 387,173 Status: Behind Target (Based on adjusted balance before withdrawals) Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAINS/LOSS TYPE ETFC 2007-11-12-08-22-49 2007-11-12-09-39-41 30000 142073 181504 39388 SHORT BDUWZ 2007-11-12-14-15-16 2007-11-12-15-59-20 5000 30000 57500 27404 BIDU NOV 300 PUT ----------------------------------------------------------------- BDUKG 2007-11-12-09-36-26 2007-11-12-14-06-56 5000 50000 25000 -25095 BIDU NOV 340 CALL WMTWI 2007-11-13-09-32-32 2007-11-13-12-36-11 190000 84500 28530 -58891 WMT NOV 45 PUT (Before Interest and Other charges) TRANSACTIONS ANALYSIS FROM 2007-02-25 TO 2007-11-17 Current Week | Since Inception of Thread | Method Gains/Loss No Of Profitable | Gains/Loss No Of Profitable Trades Trades | Trades Trades Automated AutoTrade1 0 0 0 | 5652 208 116 AutoTrade2 0 0 0 | 3372 12 8 AutoTrade3 0 0 0 | -4523 3 0 AutoTrade4 0 0 0 | -15301 3 0 ----------- -------- ------------ | ----------- ------ ------------ Total Automated 0 0 0 | -10800 226 124 ----------- -------- ------------ | ----------- ------ ------------ Discretionary Long -15276 6 1 | -63660 271 156 Short 23327 6 3 | 73929 282 164 Options(long) -44750 11 7 | 199329 251 139 ----------- -------- ------------ | ----------- ------ ------------ Total Discretionary -36699 23 11 | 209597 804 459 =========== ======== ============ | =========== ====== ============ Net Totals -36699 23 11 | 198797 1030 583 =========== ======== ============ | =========== ====== ============

JimmyJam · Nov 20, 2007

Quote from midlifeguy:

The market has totally sucked and is wiping out the retail guy with this crazy volatility.

This market has been wonderful for the retail guy because of the volatility.

JJ

neke · Nov 20, 2007

Quote from JimmyJam:

This market has been wonderful for the retail guy because of the volatility.

JJ

Well some are trend folks, and long-biased, and volatility is a killer. Had to shut down my automated long strategies.

neke · Nov 23, 2007

Weekly Update for week 39 ended 11/23/2007

Slightly negative week. Hope something better turns up next week. Absolutely outraged by that DISH manipulation.

On Monday morning (935am) shorted DISH after the initial barron's call about the possibility of an acquisition (at $44.10). Then came the rumour by TheStreet.com (about 11.30am) claiming they have "reliable source", talking of certainty of acquisition within a week:

"The final price for the satellite-TV operator is still in negotiation, and it's likely to be somewhere between $64 to $68 a share, the source said"

The stock immediately shot up above $50, and I had to cover at 49.20, for a loss of 25K. What a sad day on wall street when the pros can only make money by fabricating, disseminating, and trading on unfounded rumours. The stock eventually dropped to 44 after hours when WSJ countered the theStreet's rumour.

Thankfully, FRE came along Tuesday morning, and I recouped my losses shorting it. However a bad decision to buy PDCO on Wednesday after their earnings shortfall (believing it was overdone) left me with a loss of 19K.

Next week, please come along.

Code:

Balance B/F:                   		203,725
Loss for the week 		         -1,889
------------------------------------------------
Balance C/F:                   		201,836
Number of Trades	            	 21
Number of Profitable Trades    	    	 13

Since Inception of Thread   2/25/2007 - 11/23/2007

Balance B/F:                   		 76,636
Net Gain (Less Margin Interest)		196,200
Cash Withdrawal		       		-71,000
------------------------------------------------
Balance C/F:                   		201,836 (Adjusted balance before withdrawals is 272836, up 256% )
Number of Trades	           	 1051
Number of Profitable Trades        	 596

Expected Balance at this time to be on track for Year-End Target : 
			       404,034

Status:			       Behind Target		(Based on adjusted balance before withdrawals)

Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week

TICKER	ENTRY DATE/TIME		EXIT DATE/TIME		QTY	PURCHASE AMT	SOLD AMT	GAINS/LOSS	TYPE

FRE	2007-11-20-08-19-11	2007-11-20-14-46-09	9000	245321		277497		32121		SHORT
PDCO	2007-11-21-12-28-26	2007-11-21-15-14-52	10000	287000		292000		4976		LONG
---------------------------------------------------------------
PDCO	2007-11-21-09-33-25	2007-11-21-12-21-55	10000	306105		287002		-19147		LONG
DISH	2007-11-19-09-35-38	2007-11-19-11-55-24	6000	289792		264908		-24948		SHORT
							

                                        (Before Interest and Other charges)
                                        TRANSACTIONS ANALYSIS FROM 2007-02-25 TO 2007-11-24

                             Current Week                                    |	Since Inception of Thread
                                                                             |                                           
                Method          Gains/Loss       No Of          Profitable   |  Gains/Loss       No Of       Profitable  
                                                Trades              Trades   |                  Trades           Trades  
Automated       AutoTrade1               0           0                   0   |        5652         208              116  
                AutoTrade2               0           0                   0   |        3372          12                8  
                AutoTrade3               0           0                   0   |       -4523           3                0  
                AutoTrade4               0           0                   0   |      -15301           3                0  
                                -----------     --------        ------------ |  -----------     ------       ------------
Total Automated                          0           0                   0   |      -10800         226              124  
                                -----------     --------        ------------ |  -----------     ------       ------------
Discretionary   Long                 -3856           9                   7   |      -67516         280              163  
                Short                 3665           7                   3   |       77594         289              167  
                Options(long)        -1665           5                   3   |      197664         256              142  
                                -----------     --------        ------------ |  -----------     ------       ------------
Total Discretionary                  -1856          21                  13   |      207741         825              472  
                                ===========     ========        ============ |  ===========     ======       ============
Net Totals                           -1856          21                  13   |      196941        1051              596  
                                ===========     ========        ============ |  ===========     ======       ============

Daal · Nov 29, 2007

did you short SHLD this morning?it seems a bet you would have made

neke · Nov 29, 2007

Quote from Daal:

did you short SHLD this morning?it seems a bet you would have made

Didn't know someone was watching me. SHLD has cratered massively this year, with some good book value, so not looking for an implosion. Shorted a "little" in pre-market at 102.80, covering now at just below 102 for a small gain. Missed opportunity to cover below 100 this morning.

neke · Nov 30, 2007

Weekly Update for week 40 ended 11/30/2007

Yet another horrible week, down 26K. My emotion had the worst part of me, hesitating to enter positions when signaled, rushing in when the move was already substantially underway, and similarly bad judgement on exits. Things have got to improve.

Lost 29K in options. Incidentally this area has been my biggest support this year. Still working on narrowing my concentration to a few key strategies, with a lot of objective parameters. Can't afford to be emotional in this area: the spreads alone can chop one to shreds.

Code:

Balance B/F:                   		201,836
Loss for the week 		        -26,325
------------------------------------------------
Balance C/F:                   		175,511
Number of Trades	            	 23
Number of Profitable Trades    	    	 11

Since Inception of Thread   2/25/2007 - 11/30/2007

Balance B/F:                   		 76,636
Net Gain (Less Margin Interest)		169,875
Cash Withdrawal		       		-71,000
------------------------------------------------
Balance C/F:                   		175,511 (Adjusted balance before withdrawals is 246511, up 222% )
Number of Trades	           	 1074
Number of Profitable Trades        	 607

Expected Balance at this time to be on track for Year-End Target : 
			       421,629

Status:			       Behind Target		(Based on adjusted balance before withdrawals)

Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week

TICKER	ENTRY DATE/TIME		EXIT DATE/TIME		QTY	PURCHASE AMT	SOLD AMT	GAINS/LOSS	TYPE

GOOLN	2007-11-27-10-07-41	2007-11-27-10-33-01	3000	70360		86300		15864		GOOG DEC 670 CALL
OVTI	2007-11-30-08-48-03	2007-11-30-14-54-01	5000	94200		101809		7587		SHORT
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
BPJXJ	2007-11-28-09-38-39	2007-11-28-15-17-04	2500	68750		53880		-14948		BIDU DEC 350 PUT
BDULE	2007-11-26-12-34-13	2007-11-26-15-09-56	3500	113500		98000		-15584		BIDU DEC 330 CALL
							

                                        (Before Interest and Other charges)
                                       TRANSACTIONS ANALYSIS FROM 2007-02-25 TO 2007-11-30

                             Current Week                                    |	Since Inception of Thread
                                                                             |                                           
                Method          Gains/Loss       No Of          Profitable   |  Gains/Loss       No Of       Profitable  
                                                Trades              Trades   |                  Trades           Trades  
Automated       AutoTrade1               0           0                   0   |        5652         208              116  
                AutoTrade2               0           0                   0   |        3372          12                8  
                AutoTrade3               0           0                   0   |       -4523           3                0  
                AutoTrade4               0           0                   0   |      -15301           3                0  
                                -----------     --------        ------------ |  -----------     ------       ------------
Total Automated                          0           0                   0   |      -10800         226              124  
                                -----------     --------        ------------ |  -----------     ------       ------------
Discretionary   Long                 -6723           3                   1   |      -74239         283              164  
                Short                 9797          12                   8   |       87391         301              175  
                Options(long)       -29376           8                   2   |      168287         264              144  
                                -----------     --------        ------------ |  -----------     ------       ------------
Total Discretionary                 -26302          23                  11   |      181439         848              483  
                                ===========     ========        ============ |  ===========     ======       ============
Net Totals                          -26302          23                  11   |      170639        1074              607  
                                ===========     ========        ============ |  ===========     ======       ============

BeTheSparrow · Dec 1, 2007

I am struggling to understand just what happened this week. This was my worst trading week of 2007 (-4,877.00) and I was red all 5 days. That has not happened to me in over 2 years. Every trade I entered just "felt" risky. While I followed my "system" I was either late... or too early on every trade it seems. Monday and Tuesday were very strange indeed and yesterday was just a nervous, chop day.

I am taking all next week off and will just watch the action and study my model. The previous 3 weeks were very good for me but something changed this week. I'm not sure if it was the market... or if was just me.

NEKE... You are an inspiration. Keep your head up, keep trading, and keep on learning. I intend to do the same.

Regards, Joe

Taking 76K to 500K by Year End

neke

neke

midlifeguy

JimmyJam

neke

neke

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Daal

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