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Taking 76K to 500K by Year End
- Thread starter neke
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Neke,
Watch out for these stocks like RIMM that are heavily short. The hedge funds that are short are getting squeezed so illogical price moves to the upside are occuring. On valuation, RIMM is sickly overvalued.
Watch out for these stocks like RIMM that are heavily short. The hedge funds that are short are getting squeezed so illogical price moves to the upside are occuring. On valuation, RIMM is sickly overvalued.
Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 26 ended 08/24/2007
Glad to see the end of the week, and glad to know there is another week to look forward to. Two related but awful trades on Monday defined the result for the week. Shorted RIMM at 225 after the massive run-up, forgetting the market has just changed from bearish to bullish. Added to my pain by buying puts on the same stock. Closed the stock for a loss of 22K after watching unbelievingly as the stock kept climbing all day long, closed the option for a loss of 20K. My positions monitor could not detect the excess leverage, since it saw the trades as unrelated. Nothing I could do for the rest of the week could change the direction of the account.
Now I really need to be cautious. I know I have said that all along, but it is important to keep reminding myself of that. After 26 weeks, the weekly rate of return is 4.77% compounded. With 18 weeks remaining, and assuming no impact from further withdrawals, I need to make 4.27% weekly to attain the target. It is certainly tough, but I know with a lot of discipline, and a commitment to look well before leaping, it is attainable.
Code:Balance B/F: 269,465 Loss for the week -53,093 ------------------------------------------------ Balance C/F: 216,372 Number of Trades 39 Number of Profitable Trades 24 Since Inception of Thread 2/25/2007 - 08/25/2007 Balance B/F: 76,636 Net Gain (Less Margin Interest) 180,736 Cash Withdrawal -41,000 ------------------------------------------------ Balance C/F: 216,372 (Adjusted balance before withdrawals is 257372, up 236% ) Number of Trades 679 Number of Profitable Trades 393 Expected Balance at this time to be on track for Year-End Target : 232,143 Status: Ahead of Target (Based on adjusted balance before withdrawals) Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAINS/LOSS TYPE BCSI 2007-08-22-12-36-23 2007-08-22-15-00-32 4000 289200 300858 11633 LONG CFC 2007-08-23-10-24-52 2007-08-23-13-29-35 10000 221500 226850 5317 SHORT ------------------------------------------------------------ RFYUD 2007-08-20-10-05-55 2007-08-20-15-53-20 8000 76320 56800 -19671 OPTIONS (RIMM SEP 220 PUT -- before split) RIMM 2007-08-20-08-10-28 2007-08-20-15-55-07 2000 471875 450316 -21606 SHORT (Before Interest and Other charges) TRANSACTIONS ANALYSIS FROM 2007-02-25 TO 2007-08-25 Current Week | Since Inception of Thread | Method Gains/Loss No Of Profitable | Gains/Loss No Of Profitable Trades Trades | Trades Trades Automated AutoTrade1 2531 8 6 | 7535 169 95 AutoTrade2 -10767 3 1 | 2119 10 7 AutoTrade3 0 0 0 | -4523 3 0 ----------- -------- ------------ | ----------- ------ ------------ Total Automated -8236 11 7 | 5132 182 102 ----------- -------- ------------ | ----------- ------ ------------ Discretionary Long 10119 10 8 | -21432 177 105 Short -28578 12 7 | -4355 171 101 Options(long) -26399 6 2 | 202463 149 85 ----------- -------- ------------ | ----------- ------ ------------ Total Discretionary -44857 28 17 | 176677 497 291 =========== ======== ============ | =========== ====== ============ Net Totals -53093 39 24 | 181809 679 393 =========== ======== ============ | =========== ====== ============
After the last weekly update we can see that there is a net loss of -20654 on all stock trades (everyline on the analysis table other than the options line). However looking at my list of 530 stock trades since the start of the thread (attached Excel sheet), I find my average percentage move per stock trade is +0.49%. I have simulated possible performance at different leverage levels, assuming the trades were sequential (one position at a time). At all leverage levels I find I should be vastly profitable. I am trying to find out why inconsistent leverage would have cost me so much.
At a leverage of 50% I should have return 237%, at 100% leverage should return 868%, at leverage of 200% I should return a whopping... Of course I know the trades were not all sequential, there were overlapping trades, so it might be a bit different, but even then the disconnect between average return and even number of profitable trades vs. actual gains is so dramatic. I seem to make good percentage gains when I am underleveraged, and big percentage losses when I am overleveraged. This has got to stop. I will look at this further for more insight on the measures to put in place.
Feel free to comment if you observe anything from this spreadsheet. The actual tickers are blanked out.
At a leverage of 50% I should have return 237%, at 100% leverage should return 868%, at leverage of 200% I should return a whopping... Of course I know the trades were not all sequential, there were overlapping trades, so it might be a bit different, but even then the disconnect between average return and even number of profitable trades vs. actual gains is so dramatic. I seem to make good percentage gains when I am underleveraged, and big percentage losses when I am overleveraged. This has got to stop. I will look at this further for more insight on the measures to put in place.
Feel free to comment if you observe anything from this spreadsheet. The actual tickers are blanked out.
Attachments
Quote from neke:
Feel free to comment if you observe anything from this spreadsheet. The actual tickers are blanked out.
The mechanical system that I use has strong correlation to certain days of the week over many years of testing. Just for kicks I crunched your data. Looks pretty even. Wednesdays seem to be a little less than favorable for your system though, over this short less-than-one-year data. Take it or leave it.
Attached spreadsheet.
Attachments
neke, what did you do before trading?...500k is a nice bank roll.
cm
cm
Quote from StockzTrader:
The mechanical system that I use has strong correlation to certain days of the week over many years of testing. Just for kicks I crunched your data. Looks pretty even. Wednesdays seem to be a little less than favorable for your system though, over this short less-than-one-year data. Take it or leave it.
Attached spreadsheet.
Thanks for that nice-looking spreadsheet. I wasn't aware there could be a day-of-the week bias. Glad to know there is none. Lately though, Mondays have been dreadful for me.
Quote from cashmoney69:
neke, what did you do before trading?...500k is a nice bank roll.
cm
I am still working full-time as an Information Technology specialist. I do this part-time. Will probably go full gear one day.
Quote from Marcell:
You definitely seem to have the skills to make it. Good luck for the last few months! Which software do you use for trading?
No software as such. My analysis is done by programs I developed. The rest is discretion based on my experience of the markets.
Quote from neke:
After the last weekly update we can see that there is a net loss of -20654 on all stock trades (everyline on the analysis table other than the options line). However looking at my list of 530 stock trades since the start of the thread (attached Excel sheet), I find my average percentage move per stock trade is +0.49%. I have simulated possible performance at different leverage levels, assuming the trades were sequential (one position at a time). At all leverage levels I find I should be vastly profitable. I am trying to find out why inconsistent leverage would have cost me so much.
At a leverage of 50% I should have return 237%, at 100% leverage should return 868%, at leverage of 200% I should return a whopping... Of course I know the trades were not all sequential, there were overlapping trades, so it might be a bit different, but even then the disconnect between average return and even number of profitable trades vs. actual gains is so dramatic. I seem to make good percentage gains when I am underleveraged, and big percentage losses when I am overleveraged. This has got to stop. I will look at this further for more insight on the measures to put in place.
Feel free to comment if you observe anything from this spreadsheet. The actual tickers are blanked out.
Neke, maybe your realization that you tend to lose more frequently when you put up more cash could mean that you are perceiving that a particular stock is highly volatile...and then leveraging up to hit a home run. I guess the first question that I should ask would be: is your position sizing discretionary, or is that part of your program too?
Maybe you should either try using a similar position size on every trade (as your spreadsheet suggests), or you could even correlate the position size to something like front-month average implied volatility, derived from the stock's options, if available. For example, what would happen if you tried using a smaller position size for high IV trades, and vice versa?...which would probably be the opposite to what you've been doing. Just a thought...
Terrible capital protection . A $53,000 loss in one week is ridiculous and should never be allowed to happen with it being such a ;large % of your capital. You are playing roulette. A few spins of the wheel you are up and a few spins of the wheel you are down. You are all over the place. Protect your capital better and cut your losses. You obviously have no idea when to exit a trade that has gone bad. You are placing to much of you $$$ on too few trades also. Quick way to lose all you money just like playing roulette. The way you are trading will not be productive over time. You will continue to be up and down. What ever you make you will be giving back over time. Foolish way to be trading.
Good Luck I hope you make your 500K.....If you do you might want to quit trading because you will lose it all back.
Good Luck I hope you make your 500K.....If you do you might want to quit trading because you will lose it all back.
Quote from 1flyfisher:
Terrible capital protection . A $53,000 loss in one week is ridiculous and should never be allowed to happen with it being such a ;large % of your capital. You are playing roulette. A few spins of the wheel you are up and a few spins of the wheel you are down. You are all over the place. Protect your capital better and cut your losses. You obviously have no idea when to exit a trade that has gone bad. You are placing to much of you $$$ on too few trades also. Quick way to lose all you money just like playing roulette. The way you are trading will not be productive over time. You will continue to be up and down. What ever you make you will be giving back over time. Foolish way to be trading.
Good Luck I hope you make your 500K.....If you do you might want to quit trading because you will lose it all back.
You are probably up 1% on the year while Neke is up well over 200%. I suggest you take notice and stop criticizing.
He is managing his risk well and in no way playing roulette with his money.
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