Taking 410K to 4million by Year End 2010

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neke, do you feel you have to trade,the title of thread suggests this,you can sit back and take fewer trades with better setups,bigger profits,less losses,and when your suspicions about the markets or stocks upcoming move is confirmed ,you can add with trailing stops..this is the first week of summer like volume and lack of daily rotation from openng highs and lows,we may be in for another 6 out of the next 12 weeks of same action,if you do sitback and wait for better setups, it will give you time to reflect on your trading and the way the market is trading and give you a chance to get in synch
 
Neke, take it from me. My trading hasnt been great this year..in fact its been below my expectations, so what did I do? I stopped trading and just sat on the positions I have.

Currently holding FCX, and C. No point in digging a deeper ditch, I might as well hold on to something I think will do well long term, and sit on my hands.

Find something you like, and hold on, it might help you climb out of your hole, at least partially.

- kon
 
I just took a look at classifying the trades and summarizing for automated and discretionary trades. I looked at the period from 2/20/2010 (after the initial drop in my account to 230K) to today (6/12/2010) with a balance of about 243K. Over that period of three-and-half months, the number of automated trades is 294 resulting in a gain of 73K, while the number of discretionary trades is 159 resulting in a loss of 60K. So while not spectacular (about +31% return) the automated trades have definitely been Ok. Yes I have considered doing nothing but auto-trading, but afterwards I have always felt I would be leaving an awful lot of opportunities if I gave up on discretionary trading - no amount of automation can discover and leverage on those opportunities. Bolstering this conviction is the realisation that I have made BIG money in years past using mostly my discretion (>150% 2007, > 450% 2008, > 50% 2009) so it is going to be a tough decision. On the plus side, I would have more time for research on improving my automated strategies, and time for regular work.

One big handicap I have with my discretionary trades is that when the opportunities are not there, instead of staying away, I am trying hard to create them, and using excessive leverage, and that has been most damaging. This year there hasn't been that many great opportunities (yes some in May, but I missed a lot of them anyway). So yes, I am still considering whether to throw in the towel for good on discretionary trades.
 
Quote from Passion4Mkt:


I'm wondering in the case of the ugly BIDU trade earlier in the year if you have gone and backtested some common TA pattern indicators to see if your decision to go short would've been validated... or the opposite was the case.
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I do not use TA as such. My gut feel was that the move on the upside was over-extended, and was due for some retracement in the timeframe I have chosen (yes I know some laugh at that, but it is a profitable strategy!). Of course going after it the way I did not respecting position size was detrimental.
 
Quote from neke:

Over that period of three-and-half months, the number of automated trades is 294 resulting in a gain of 73K, while the number of discretionary trades is 159 resulting in a loss of 60K.
More...

The right decision is in front of you.
 
Quote from NoDoji:

The right decision is in front of you.
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The autotrading has been in a choppy market. No Reason to think it will continue, if that's the market it's suited for.
 
you dumbfounded me with your comments of having 30% in 3 and a half months is not spectacular. In my book that"s an 145% return on an annual basis ... 99% of the traders on ET would commit a murder for anything likewise. You would have beaten yourself almost every year with that kind of return even when your discretionary trading was at your best. More so you would probably sleep better :)
The conclusion seems obvious to me: go with automation and stop the discretionary trading. Perfection creates ulcers :D those kind of results are allready more than outstanding.
 
Quote from neke:

Weekly Update for week 22/50 ended 06/12/2010

Bitter week, down 39K (14%). Another giant step backward.

Was having a flat week till Thurs afternoon. Thought I needed to show something for a week's effort and decided to take heavy size on SPY PUT as well as short BP when it seemed like the rally was fading away, hoping to reap some gains from small downside move. Grossly wrong, as both took off immediately afterwards. Closed BP short for a loss of 18K, and SPY puts for a loss of 12K. Stupid decision trying to pick pennies expecting to magnify it with leverage, while forgetting the downside. That set me up for another psychologically losing day on Fri as I threw away another 10K. Still fighting the battle of how to prevent complacence after a number of positive weeks.

Thoroughly exhausted. I need a shower.


Code: 
Opening Balance:                	281,914
Net loss for the week 		      	 39,035
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance:                   		242,879

Number of Trades	            	 33
Number of Profitable Trades    	    	 16


Since Inception of Thread   01/10/2010 - 06/12/2010

Opening Balance:                   	410,000
Net loss(Less Margin Interest)		167,121 (Down 41%)
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance				242,879

Number of Trades	           	739
Number of Profitable Trades        	388

SPYJUN192010109.0PUT	2010-06-10-14-08-32	2010-06-10-15-21-47	20000	53000	41000	-12275	SPY PUT
BP			2010-06-10-14-06-23	2010-06-10-15-21-48	18000	588368	571200	-17206	SHORT
More...

Please. Rename this thread. "Taking 410k to zero by year end."
 
Neke, why didn't it work?

Was it just a matter of right or wrong? Or was it something related to the underlying mechanics of the market that made losing this type of leveraged trade much more easier?

What could we learn from this lesson?

PA
 
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