Taking 410K to 4million by Year End 2010

[Red_Ink_inc]

Quote from konviction:

I don't think Neke has any intention of changing the way he trades..at least I havn't read any such post.

"The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. "

-Benjamin Franklin

 

[shortie]

Quote from Red_Ink_inc:

"The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. "

-Benjamin Franklin

devil's advocate: neke IS PROFITABLE, there is a non-zero possibility that MAY change once he screws enough with his approach.

 

[TGpop]

Quote from NoDoji:

You are correct, but I use the 20 EMA for the same thing when looking to enter a trend.

In a very strong trend, though, stochs can fail badly in the time frame you're trading. In a very strong trend I think your best way to enter is to look at a smaller time frame than the one you're trading and find an entry there using stochs.

Look at a 5-min ESI chart Friday. Price opened oversold and quickly became VERY oversold. However, price kept falling and never became fully overbought until just before noon. If you waited for price to become fully overbought on the 5-min chart to go short, you'd have missed the largest move of the day. If you referenced a 1-min or 3-min chart near the open and shorted the first overbought move, you'd be short just before 10:00 a.m. in the 102.00's and caught a piece of a 5.00 move down before any price-moving support was even established.

I'm not sure if this the holy grail, but I started referencing shorter time frames for entry points recently and it's been very positive.

yeh, even check the thread i made which closed, mutiple timeframes is a good thing, that way you wont trade ignorantly, for example ES on a 5 minute chart could be in a perfect uptrend, uh oh, why did it stall and tank? maybe you should have checked the hourlies, you just smashed into the top of a range which has been in play for days, you could then wait for , say the 20 ema to trend down and trade the 5 minute trend until it is 'over'. In other words , trade trends where they make sense, it works better on stocks/eminis, forex too, but i just think forex is too fundamentally driven to think of it as just a technical market.

with trends you have two choices - trade them as they appear on a low timeframe with keeping in mind the big S/R levels , or you could just swing trade the trend ....

yeh

 

[ChkitOut]

Quote from Red_Ink_inc:

You should listen to the post above very carefully. It's the best advice you will ever get.

I suggest you cease all discretionary trading at once. There is no kind way to put this........ you're not very good at it.

How does he turn his back on something that has made him wealthy over the past few years? year after year??

 

[Red_Ink_inc]

Quote from shortie:

devil's advocate: neke IS PROFITABLE, there is a non-zero possibility that MAY change once he screws enough with his approach.

Neke is profitable is most areas of his trading, but has a massive hole in his game. When his first position in ESI went against him a certain pre determined amount he should have dumped it and maybe even reversed his position. Refusing to admit you're wrong and averaging down in hopes the market will prove you 'right' is insanity.

One thing he did do correctly was cut his loss before it got really ugly. So I do see a positive here. Neke just needs to stick to what he's good at and he'll make dough.

The battle isn't Neke vs. the market. It's Neke vs. Neke.

 

[TGpop]

Quote from ChkitOut:

How does he turn his back on something that has made him wealthy over the past few years? year after year??

i agree, hasn't he made money? yes
all that's wrong, it appears is a bit of risk tolerance ( sigh, another money management post). but seriously if he just kept his risk small these two trades would be a measly 3-4% drawdown as opposed to 9-10%

 

[shortie]

Quote from Red_Ink_inc:

Neke is profitable is most areas of his trading, but has a massive hole in his game. When his first position in ESI went against him a certain pre determined amount he should have dumped it and maybe even reversed his position. Refusing to admit you're wrong and averaging down in hopes the market will prove you 'right' is insanity.

One thing he did do correctly was cut his loss before it got really ugly. So I do see a positive here. Neke just needs to stick to what he's good at and he'll make dough.

The battle isn't Neke vs. the market. It's Neke vs. Neke.

coming to theaters near you: "Wallstreet Now Redux: Neke vs. Neke"

 

[Pension_Admin]

Hi Neke,

I have a question for you.

How do you know when your strategy stopped working vs. when it is just going through a normal period of drawdown?

Thanks!

PA

 

[Red_Ink_inc]

Quote from ChkitOut:

How does he turn his back on something that has made him wealthy over the past few years? year after year??

While I am not certain. I suspect he made a lot of his dough in periods of above average volatility. We are in a period of low volatility (though it may pick up). There just aren't as many countertrend bounces in low VIX environments.

That seems to be what he looks for. In low volatility things just keep grinding in one direction.

In other words the market has changed. Change with it or accept the consequences.

 

[TGpop]

Neke don't pay attention to the naysayers, just tone down the risk

Red Ink:yeh it's low volaitlity at the moment, that doesn't mean it's always goign to be like that. counter-trend movement will come back ....just wait and be patient and let your automated trading play out