BIDU was on fire today, even for its OTM Jan calls. I hope you didn't miss the boat.
Taking 410K to 4million by Year End 2010
- Thread starter neke
- Start date
- Status
maybe he made all the 4mil today? cant wait till Friday, Neke, will you give us a early showing?
Quote from NoDoji:
Neke what would make him ask that?
For the record, I just put on a large NEKE Dec 2,000,000 call position. I apologize for betting short of your goal, but I need to honor my risk management rules
He saw my Ameritrade screens a number of times.
Your figure is OK. I believe you want to finish deep in the money!
the very fact that you replied probably means you made some money this week so far or today. If this was poker you gave yourself away I would fold.
Quote from peilthetraveler:
I would like to say good job for last year, but when i did the math for your first two trades (POT & SPY and not calculating the options that you bought which was minimal anyway) and figured what you would've made if you had just bought and held all year, you kind of left alot of money on the table. You closed the year with 502k, but if you had just bought and held, you would've closed the year with about 660k or so (I didnt factor in margin costs in that figure, but assuming 12% per year on 500k of margin and you still come up cashing out end of year with an extra 100k in your pocket.
You made a 57% return for the year and you used what...3 to 1 margin? 4 to 1 margin? The Dow is up 26% from when you started trading on Jan 15 2009. At that rate of margin, you should've been up at least 75% to stay even with the market.
Not saying you did bad though, but just dont pat yourself on the back too much or let others pat you on the back until you are outperforming the market in real terms. It can throw you off if you see you made a huge return in % numbers and dont factor in margin to that play. A trader that makes 25% returns on a cash account is a better trader than one that makes 75% returns on a 4 to 1 margin account. Dont get "Fooled by Randomness"
Good luck next year. If you do take 400k to 4 million by year end this year, you will know you are a good trader (as long as the dow doesnt go to 35,000 by year end, then you would still just be trading alongside the market at 4 to 1 leverage)
Trading has nothing to do with the returns from the S&P, it is a completely inappropriate benchmark. Trading is about absolute return relative to risk, not relative return compared to an index. Benchmarking to index returns is only arguably relevant for buy & hold or other longer-term investment strategies.
But plucking a large number out of thin air literally does nothing whatsoever to help you achieve that goal. If it did, then surely you should be gunning for $1 trillion not $4 million?
Why don't you make your goals to improve your trading tactics and strategies, or your personal discipline, or your amount of time and effort spent on trading and research? Those are the things which actually create returns, after all.
neke, haven't followed your postings and trades from the past. Is this a real money trading account as opposed to a simulated account? Thanks
Weekly Update for week 1/50 ended 01/16/2010
A disastrous start to the year. Down 99.5K (24%). It all happened on Thursday.
Saw the follow-up rally on BIDU on Thursday, and thought it was overdone at 449. Forgot all the harm I have suffered in BIDU on previous occasions, and that this was just a day to expiration. Bought 50 JAN 450 PUTS @ 6.50, as well as shorting 500 shares. Then came another surge and I added another 60 contracts @ 5.80, and extra 500 in shares. Watched all morning for exit point, but instead came another surge by noon, and in vengeance bought 200 contracts @ 4.00. That was the last act of desperation. Watched as the stock climbed and did not look back, while the premiums kept eroding. Finally closed all 310 contracts at prices from 1.80 down to 1.30 as the bids kept disappearing when I put in my limit order to get out. Lost 102K in stock and 14K in options.
Looking for ways to overcome this inability to accept a loss. Right now, I am putting in place an auto-closure of any position that loses 6% of my account AT THE MARKET. Maybe I will learn to adjust my size accordingly and resist the temptation to average down.
Other that the above, the vast majority of the trades were automated trades made with low size -- and too small to appear on the top/bottom trades. I am looking forward to doing more of the automation.
So much for my sad story.
A disastrous start to the year. Down 99.5K (24%). It all happened on Thursday.
Saw the follow-up rally on BIDU on Thursday, and thought it was overdone at 449. Forgot all the harm I have suffered in BIDU on previous occasions, and that this was just a day to expiration. Bought 50 JAN 450 PUTS @ 6.50, as well as shorting 500 shares. Then came another surge and I added another 60 contracts @ 5.80, and extra 500 in shares. Watched all morning for exit point, but instead came another surge by noon, and in vengeance bought 200 contracts @ 4.00. That was the last act of desperation. Watched as the stock climbed and did not look back, while the premiums kept eroding. Finally closed all 310 contracts at prices from 1.80 down to 1.30 as the bids kept disappearing when I put in my limit order to get out. Lost 102K in stock and 14K in options.
Looking for ways to overcome this inability to accept a loss. Right now, I am putting in place an auto-closure of any position that loses 6% of my account AT THE MARKET. Maybe I will learn to adjust my size accordingly and resist the temptation to average down.
Other that the above, the vast majority of the trades were automated trades made with low size -- and too small to appear on the top/bottom trades. I am looking forward to doing more of the automation.
So much for my sad story.
Code:
Opening Balance: 410,000
Net loss for the week -99,486
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance: 310,514
Number of Trades 57
Number of Profitable Trades 29
Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 01/16/2010
Opening Balance: 410,000
Net loss(Less Margin Interest) -99,486 (Down 24.3%)
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance 310,514
Number of Trades 57
Number of Profitable Trades 29
Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week
TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE
PCLN 2010-01-13-10-30-04 2010-01-13-12-38-20 2500 522375 531799 9390 LONG
-------------------------------------------------------
BIDU 2010-01-14-10-07-59 2010-01-14-15-22-18 1000 465000 450605 -14422 LONG
BPJMX 2010-01-14-10-07-26 2010-01-14-15-57-53 31000 147300 46080 -101666 BIDU PUT- Status