Taking 320K to 3.5million by Year End 2009

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Hey Neke, nice returns this year, but too much needless risk cost you your goal. I think your idea of doing swing option trades next year is a good one.

Wow, 1500 contracts! Imagine if you bought 1500 contracts on a big momo stock, for example POT $120 puts on 12/10 when it stage a failed breakout through major resistance, and put in a .50 cent stop (since you're willing to lose $75K on a trade). Yesterday you could've collected a cool $2,000,000.

Because you have a large account and significant intraday margin you're trying to use leverage as an "edge. When I found out I had a sim account available to me with IB this summer and started playing with it, I tried trading that way a few times. Sometimes you get lucky, sometimes you endure a huge drawdown just to end up near break even, and sometimes you bail at a far greater loss than your trading plan allows you to accept. Adding to a loser (unless it's a pre-planned position-build with a pre-planned stop loss) is a waste.

The only reason for trading this way is, the belief that price has to turn in your favor, thereby making you "right".
 
Quote from NoDoji:


Wow, 1500 contracts! Imagine if you bought 1500 contracts on a big momo stock, for example POT $120 puts on 12/10 when it stage a failed breakout through major resistance, and put in a .50 cent stop (since you're willing to lose $75K on a trade). Yesterday you could've collected a cool $2,000,000.
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Nice! Hindsight is always 20-20. I shall look for that trade next year. Sorry to have lost you money on your 975K call.
 
neke, great job. Don't beat yourself up over XOM. It made no sense what they did to it this week. Deal slightly dilutive to earnings, slightly accretive to cash flow. You can't predict a major asset allocation out of a stock like that. Some due to the arb, but made little sense. I too got caught up in it's contra moves this week. Good luck next year, hope you start a new thread.

-T
 
Quote from neke:

Nice! Hindsight is always 20-20. I shall look for that trade next year. Sorry to have lost you money on your 975K call.
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I too shall look for that trade next year :D

No worries on the calls; I came into this world with no money...
 
Quote from neke:


Bought 300 XOM 70 CALL on Monday morning after the announced acquisition of XTO, thinking the market was overreacting. The stock moved against me, and I averaged in another 300, then another 300... until I had 1500 contracts, at an average of 1.14. The stock did not look up, and I exited @ 0.67 average, losing 72K. I was tired, bitter, and disgusted.

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did the same thing myself today with NQ, shorted at the bottom, added more after it reversed on me, added more at the "resistance" level, added more after the "resistance" level was broken, then capitulated. numb afterwards.
 
Weekly Update for final week 50/50 ended 12/26/2009

Shocking week to end the thread. Down 68K (11.9%). Not sure what is happening but my plans are being wrecked left, right, center.

Started on Monday with a loss on POT, buying the 300 calls @ 5.20 average, and selling all later for a loss of 19K. Then got buried on Fri, shorting SNDK and averaging in. Not sure what is driving the stock up strong for the fourth day, ending the week +20% higher. I guess we shall find out in coming days/weeks.

Will pull out about 120K between now and year-end, leaving the balance to start the year and hopefully a new thread. Merry Christmas to all, and wish you a happy new year. I shall enjoy my holidays in spite of SNDK and XOM.

Code: 
Opening Balance:               	    	570,577
Net loss for the week 		        -67,787
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance:                   		502,790

Number of Trades	            	 14
Number of Profitable Trades    	    	  6


Since Inception of Thread   01/10/2009 - 12/26/2009

Opening Balance:                   	320,064
Net gain (Less Margin Interest)		182,726 (Up 57.1%)
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance				502,790

Number of Trades	           	1280
Number of Profitable Trades        	 811

Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week

TICKER	ENTRY DATE/TIME		EXIT DATE/TIME		QTY	PURCHASE AMT	SOLD AMT	GAIN/LOSS	TYPE

QCOR	2009-12-24-08-43-17	2009-12-24-12-17-10	20100	105667		113635		7917		SHORT
SNDK	2009-12-23-09-34-32	2009-12-23-12-01-11	30000	841891		846715		4738		SHORT
-------------------------------------------------
PYPAB	2009-12-21-09-34-22	2009-12-21-13-20-09	30000	156820		138320		-18943		POT CALL
SNDK	2009-12-24-09-38-06	2009-12-24-12-47-55	40000	1196626		1154715		-41982		SHORT

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from your equity curve, the fact you are constantly prone to sudden major losses, says that your defensive money management methods may need a lot of work. THAT is what you need to work on in 2010.
 
Then got buried on Fri, shorting SNDK and averaging in. Not sure what is driving the stock up strong for the fourth day, ending the week +20% higher. I guess we shall find out in coming days/weeks.


Literally, hpq, sndk, aapl, amzn, msft.......it didn`t matter.....what was it 3 staright days of 15 plus naz days.....naz even pulled dow s&p up for week.............but this is what the hedge funds coordinated and conspired to do during this small window while nobody was trading, and right after options expiration.....literally, every night the nq futures would start up .75 and build..........wallstreet corruption at its finest..........then cnbc says apple moved by tablet..............please.......aaple was moved like all the tech stocks......b/c it is easier to move these names in illiquid markets.


i look for big givebacks in january, especially after macworld.
 
Aim:

Taking 320K to 3.5million by Year End 2009

Reality:

Took 320K to 0.5million by Year End 2009


Still some good trading in there, you almost tripled the account from its low to its peak, in just a few months.

Its always good to aim high. But i think 400% a year should be about the most you should aim for. Then you have a much better chance of staying 'ahead of target' throughout the year if you beat it.

You manged to get:

800% in 2005.
93% in 2006.
187% in 2007.
447% in 2008.
57% in 2009.
 
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