Taking 320K to 3.5million by Year End 2009

[Index piker]

Quote from MandelbrotSet:

Don't worry about Index piker guys.

He's innumerate (mathematically ignorant) ... (b) He is also including his 401k and IRA contributions as part of his "total return".

Link

P.S. It is the greatest irony that he talks about the law of large numbers ... as if he even had a clue!

You have repeated this allegation several times in various places without any supporting evidence.

I have clearly shown in my journal how outlandish this nonsense is in various ways
1) If true my employer would need to be either making irregular deposits weekly or my income exceeds 2.5 million /year.

2) I posted an image of one a day return the very next day that would require a large one day contribution from my employer. Why would an employer make a match for one week then the very next trading day make another contribution?

3) In case you are unaware there are absolute maximum contributions for profit sharing plans.

4) If I have done as you claim , my brokerage company has co-conspired with me to make the exact same fraudulent calculation of returns.

Anybody with half a brain, will see that you baked this accusation up without a shred of proof, due to your own (I presume) jealousy.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...6&pagenumber=13

Somehow my success threatens you.
My advice is: you'd better get used to it.

PS: I apologize to neke for the necessity of this post on his journal but I will not let outright fabrications go unchallenged wherever he decides to place these little turds.

 

[MandelbrotSet]

Quote from Index piker:

Somehow my success threatens you.
My advice is: you'd better get used to it.

LOL

The only thing you succeeded in doing is:

1. saveup over 50% of income over the past four years (while pretending to get the results from "passive indexing"), Link
2. catch the tail-end of this latest run-up (and claim a greater mastery of trading than 95% of the traders out there), LOL Link
3. and get caught in your bold faced lie of being a "passive investor" while actually demonstrating that you are an "active etf trader" by the knowledgeable traders on ETLink

The only thing I'll be getting used to are your continued lies, exaggerations and obfuscation of the truth, as I'm sure you'll be doing plenty of it!

P.S. I'm not apologizing for anything, this guy's a fraud, and I'm enjoying exposing him for what he really is ... a trader wannabe!

P.P.S. Have you noticed that no one else has recently made a post on your moderator protected, self-agradizing thread Index piker? That's because they realized you're a fraud, and they put you on ignore. :eek:

 

[neke]

Weekly Update for week 44/50 ended 11/14/2009

An OK week, up 28K(5%). Thought my week was ruined on Monday with BIDU, but started a comeback on Tuesday, and finished green for the week.

On Monday bought 200 BIDU 410 PUT @ 8.50, averaged in another 200 cars as the stock climbed. Same time took on 2000 shares short in two installments. Glad that was all my account could handle. Crashed out later in the day losing 11K on the stock, and 39K on the put option(put in an order to exit 400 @ 7.3, got filled on 327, carried the rest overnight and exited at 6.60). The leverage was insane: clear violation of intention.

caught 3000 shares of PCLN after hours same day following stellar earnings. Closed following morning @ 188.50, netting 17K: WAY TOO EARLY. Glad came back and picked up some call options in two segments (not having the confidence to stay too long), making 15K and 16K.

caution as we approach the final weeks of the year. Effort should now be spent planning for next year.

Opening Balance:               	    	551,942
Net gain for the week 		         28,329
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance:                   		580,271

Number of Trades	            	 15
Number of Profitable Trades    	    	 10


Since Inception of Thread   01/10/2009 - 11/14/2009

Opening Balance:                   	320,064
Net gain (Less Margin Interest)		260,207(Up 81.3%)
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance				580,271

Number of Trades	           	1177
Number of Profitable Trades        	 746

Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week

TICKER	ENTRY DATE/TIME		EXIT DATE/TIME		QTY	PURCHASE AMT	SOLD AMT	GAIN/LOSS	TYPE

PCLN	2009-11-09-16-08-02	2009-11-10-08-04-59	3000	549915		566679		16728		LONG
PNEKA	2009-11-10-10-57-30	2009-11-10-11-57-10	10000	84000		100230		16077		PCLN CALL
PNEKA	2009-11-10-10-00-31	2009-11-10-10-16-35	10000	56976		72000		14878		PCLN CALL
QCTWN	2009-11-12-09-31-11	2009-11-12-10-04-26	40000	90870		104000		12579		CTRP PUT
M	2009-11-11-08-09-08	2009-11-11-10-02-44	20000	364600		375003		10372		SHORT
------------------------------------------------------
BIDU	2009-11-09-09-36-49	2009-11-09-16-00-26	2000	851200		840564		-10679		SHORT
BPJWB	2009-11-09-09-32-41	2009-11-10-10-47-30	40000	325620		286895		-39294		BIDU PUT

 

[retaildaytrader]

Neke,

Here are some things to think about.

If you had just sunk it all into BIDU or APPL at the start of the year then you would be up more then you are now. You made over 1000 trades and did not get as far as some guy who sunk all his cash into a few popular stocks at the start of the year. In fact, there are some mutual funds that outperformed you this year.

You used these lottery ticket methods many times that never panned out and sometimes there were big disasters where you lost a good percentage of your capital. You spent many hours of your time focusing on the market when your time could have been put elsewhere in more constructive ways.

If I might ask, have you learned your lesson yet? The key to success in the market is on the big swings and these lotto ticket like trades will get you nowhere and may even lead to disaster. If I may point out something, now you are trying to avoid the market during the best 6 trading months (November through April). These next 6 trading months have proven to be most profitable through backtesting.

http://books.google.com/books?id=Kw...page&q=the best 6 months stock market&f=false

Im not here writing to berate or degrade you. Im not here to troll and throw this thread off. However, I am here to give you a dose of reality and make you think. The dose of reality is that you did not do too well this year. You could have done a lot better.

You should not simply give in now because its the end of the year. In fact, the Christmas rally time of December is a great time to make money. It has been proven that November through April is the best time to make money. So maybe you should start another thread about doubling your money from November to April. Your mistake is that you are thinking along conventional periods of time. You have to think along with the market's time, not your time.

 

[telozo]

retaildaytrader, I have backtested your "strategy" for the last 10 years: buy the first day of november, and sell the first day of may. I used a fixed 300,000 account (Neke's amount at the beginning of the year), and no compounding or margin, and here are the annualized results:

AAPL: 9.33% + 26,000 open (10 years)
BIDU: 7.27% + 50,000 open (5 years)
GOOG: 2.21% + 23,000 open (5 years)

SPY: -0.33% + 17,000 open
DIA: 1.29% + 17,000 open

Hardly the 100% Neke is looking to get every year, but not bad either, considering that the money have only been used for half a year, and no compounding. The trick is picking the right stocks, because if you used the indexes you would be under water.

 

[Pension_Admin]

I think what retaildaytrader is trying to get at is treat each trade as an operation--like how Jesse Livermore did by pyramiding into a winning position.

It's not easy to do, especially if you are already making good money.

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from retaildaytrader:

If you had just sunk it all into BIDU or APPL at the start of the year then you would be up more then you are now. You made over 1000 trades and did not get as far as some guy who sunk all his cash into a few popular stocks at the start of the year. In fact, there are some mutual funds that outperformed you this year.

This is some specious reasoning here. You're looking back in time. Who knew at the beginning of the year when the market was on its way to 12-year lows and many people thought we were headed toward a second great depression, that the market would suddenly rebound?

Choosing individual stocks in retrospect that rebounded well and saying how great he would've done if he'd put his money there is just plain silly. Did you know in January this year that AAPL and BIDU would recover so strongly? What if you invested in APOL and AMGN, stocks that held up very well through the crash, making them sensible investments at the beginning of this year? You'd be significantly down at this point.

If you bought into the market on Jan 3, 2008, you lost about 60% last year and if you're still holding, you're only down about 25% now.

Neke make a 400%+ return in 2008. How many "buy and hold" investors made that kind of return? None.

He's up over 80% this year while the overall market's up less than 20%.

The ideal thing about this method of growing his account is that he has more control of his profits and losses. If a news event drives the market down 500 or 1000 points overnight, Neke wakes up to a cash account worth the same amount as when he went to sleep the night before.

And he's managing this kind of return despite consistently violating his rules about averaging and leverage. (Neke, stop that! My NEKE Dec $975K calls are at risk here!)

 

[trading_time]

Neke is not an investor in this journal, he is a day trader, and there is a big difference. I am sure if he wanted to buy and hold he would. Your suggestions are only on a couple stocks, which is a all your eggs in one basket thing, not a wise move. not mentioning that you are looking at those stocks after the fact. When has this done any trader any good?

Neke is doing very well, better then most, and more often then not change brings loss. All he needs is fine tuning to make his goal one of these years.

In my opinion no ones needs to tell him what he needs to do.

TT

Quote from retaildaytrader:

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[etile]

Quote from retaildaytrader:

Neke,

Here are some things to think about.

If you had just sunk it all into BIDU or APPL at the start of the year then you would be up more then you are now. You made over 1000 trades and did not get as far as some guy who sunk all his cash into a few popular stocks at the start of the year. In fact, there are some mutual funds that outperformed you this year.

You used these lottery ticket methods many times that never panned out and sometimes there were big disasters where you lost a good percentage of your capital. You spent many hours of your time focusing on the market when your time could have been put elsewhere in more constructive ways.

If I might ask, have you learned your lesson yet? The key to success in the market is on the big swings and these lotto ticket like trades will get you nowhere and may even lead to disaster. If I may point out something, now you are trying to avoid the market during the best 6 trading months (November t

And how much of a bankroll are you throwing around? How much have you made this year?

If you aren't throwing around a half mil line or more and have done better than 86% ROI this year, you should seriously stop giving Neke advice.

 

[neke]

Quote from retaildaytrader:

Neke,

If you had just sunk it all into BIDU or APPL at the start of the year then you would be up more then you are now. You made over 1000 trades and did not get as far as some guy who sunk all his cash into a few popular stocks at the start of the year.

I don't normally like to reply when the folly in the argument is very clear, but let's get it. Why AAPL or BIDU and not POT or FSLR, two other popular stocks, at the beginning of the year? And why just this year; I should have done the same with AAPL and BIDU January 2008 and earned their respective negative 50% and negative 67% for that year!! Anyone could make tons of money with the benefit of hindsight: I should have thrown all my cash and bought BIDU Dec 200 calls on January 15, 2009. By now, I should be swimming in a pool of money.

The dose of reality is that you did not do too well this year. You could have done a lot better.



Agreed there 100%. Lots of missed opportunities this year, I promise to be more adaptive going forward, and not miss a rally like we had between Mar and July without reaping a windfall.

PS: By the time I completed my post, noticed a number of people have pointed out the folly!