Taking 320K to 3.5million by Year End 2009

[Wilt]

Oh well Neke. I got hit hard this week too. At least a 10% loss is 60K for you, you have nice profits this year. One week does not a trend make. These transitional periods are difficult. I am long SNDK and haven't a clue why after such stellar earnings they are selling offas hard as they are. Next week, new plays.

Wilt

 

[Nanook]

Quote from riskfreetrading:

You mis-understood what I wrote/meant. If others than you got the same understanding as you, and if they ask me to re-explain I would redo it-- otherwise your comment is an outlier.

I am one of those that "mis-understood" what you meant:
Please "re-explain" your "redo it".
Thanks.

 

[Mike Morrison]

Quote from riskfreetrading:

You mis-understood what I wrote/meant. If others than you got the same understanding as you, and if they ask me to re-explain I would redo it-- otherwise your comment is an outlier.

I'm not sure what you mean by this post either..LOL

Save yourself the effort though. Maybe you were joking? Maybe you weren't clear? Either way I couldn't give a flying fuck.

 

[illiquid]

Quote from Nanook:

I am one of those that "mis-understood" what you meant:
Please "re-explain" your "redo it".
Thanks.

I believe partly what he is referring to is the fact that Neke's nominal returns certainly are impressive, but what kind of positions are he putting on to get them? He is day trading 5-figure share sizes (or the equivalent in options) in stocks like Amazon, First Solar, even Garmin -- volatile names to say the least. You need to compare sizes put on to returns made; for say 20k share positions on average, a weekly net in mid-5 figures means around 2-3 pts TOTAL net gain. 2 or 3 pts on stocks like FSLR or AMZN certainly is beyond noise, but not really by much when you think about it.

I trade many of the volatile names Neke trades, I only trade a max size of a couple thousand shares per position. But my daily net swings are in the mid-to-high four figures already; if I were to ever put on a position of say 20K shares of AMZN or GRMN, I would most definitely be looking for mid-5 figure gains DAILY; weekly, almost certainly over 6 figures.

That's just the nature of the stocks he trades; to me, the only way one can get into a position of 20-30k shares of AMZN (this week in particular), only to exit all for 1 or 2 pt gain, is if one continually averages down into that size throughout the course of the day and finally exits in relief. Otherwise, if one actually timed that such a position in a decent manner, a six-figure intraday profit on a single position should not be such a rare occurence on his blotter (all those stocks mentioned had earnings or news events this past week -- AMZN itself went from 94 to 120 within 2 sessions).

Please don't look upon this post as some sort of mean-spirited critique, returns in this caliber on this board are obviously pretty rare and deserve to be celebrated first and foremost. But the question of "edge", as opposed to just reserve buying power and the willingness to use it, is a valid one and one which neke should always be asking himself no matter what how his account is doing.

Edit: I know that Red Ink follows this thread as well; I would ask that he chime in on this subject as he obviously trades in equivalent or even larger sizes on an intraday time frame. I'm not yet swinging that big a bat but at least I am familiar with the stocks that are mentioned in this thread.

 

[Mike Morrison]

AMZN earnings were last week...LOL!

Fucking histerical.

Like I said, don't bother. I'm really not interested in what anyone with 3K+ posts has to say.

 

[riskfreetrading]

Quote from illiquid:

I believe partly what he is referring to is the fact that Neke's nominal returns certainly are impressive, but what kind of positions are he putting on to get them? He is day trading 5-figure share sizes (or the equivalent in options) in stocks like Amazon, First Solar, even Garmin -- volatile names to say the least. You need to compare sizes put on to returns made; for say 20k share positions on average, a weekly net in mid-5 figures means around 2-3 pts TOTAL net gain. 2 or 3 pts on stocks like FSLR or AMZN certainly is beyond noise, but not really by much when you think about it.

I trade many of the volatile names Neke trades, I only trade a max size of a couple thousand shares per position. But my daily net swings are in the mid-to-high four figures already; if I were to ever put on a position of say 20K shares of AMZN or GRMN, I would most definitely be looking for mid-5 figure gains DAILY; weekly, almost certainly over 6 figures.

That's just the nature of the stocks he trades; to me, the only way one can get into a position of 20-30k shares of AMZN (this week in particular), only to exit all for 1 or 2 pt gain, is if one continually averages down into that size throughout the course of the day and finally exits in relief. Otherwise, if one actually timed that such a position in a decent manner, a six-figure intraday profit on a single position should not be such a rare occurence on his blotter (all those stocks mentioned had earnings or news events this past week -- AMZN itself went from 94 to 120 within 2 sessions).

Please don't look upon this post as some sort of mean-spirited critique, returns in this caliber on this board are obviously pretty rare and deserve to be celebrated first and foremost. But the question of "edge", as opposed to just reserve buying power and the willingness to use it, is a valid one and one which neke should always be asking himself no matter what how his account is doing.

Edit: I know that Red Ink follows this thread as well; I would ask that he chime in on this subject as he obviously trades in equivalent or even larger sizes on an intraday time frame. I'm not yet swinging that big a bat but at least I am familiar with the stocks that are mentioned in this thread.

You have made a thoughtful post. You have captured the core of what I meant, in addition to some point below:

1. Before I make the points below, I thought to second the poster above and state that this post and the previous posts I made, are not an ill-intentioned critique of Neke. Maybe his most critical people would turn out to be his friends in at least avoiding losses. In addition there are impressive aspects in the performance of Neke, as after all what matters is the net result. No one can argue with success, particularly if one is playing with his own money, in which case the question of leverage and isk is more personal. One of the most impressive aspects in Neke's trading is his courage, which paid him so far. I wish for him more, but I was just concerned about the other aspects as well.

2. I have not looked in details at his performance on Wednesday, as it is the one day that brought the alarm in my mind. In my view this past Wednesday was a typically day wished for by traders--- "easy" and classical. Seasoned traders should love it, as the market was clearly going down in continuation of previous day, smooth in its progress and yet fast. So just missing Wednesday must be painful, but if one were to lose money on that day it must a torture. It happens to everyone from time to time to miss a day like Wednesday, but I was raising the point in case the overall market is/was overlooked by Neke (or if I am allowed to be a bit more blunt: does Neke has an edge in reading the overall market direction and size of its move). I am somewhat perplexed on whether Neke realized or not the loud and clear tune the market was playing on Wednesday . So I was asking him what he thought before I would make a judgment.

3. As the above post explains, returns in relation to size is an other question. With the size taken, doubleing an account might look less impressive if the size is adjusted accordingly in relation to risk. An other question in relation to the trade size is whether Neke makes one trade entries or pyramid/scale in his trade---It is not clear from his summary whether it is one trade or multiple trades put together in an average at the end of the week/day.

Finally, one point I want to make to those impressed by the magnitude of gains and losses of Neke on absolute scale ONLY, I am positive that some of you know someone who makes 300 dollars on a 1000 dollars account, but yet are not impressed. If you scale it to a 600K account, the 300 on 1K is equivalent to 180K. Now you should be triply impressed by you friend who tries to make 300 out of 1K. Note that the difference in the case of Neke is that he does not blow up, and that is the part that is makes it interesting in this case.

Best regards to all!

 

[riskfreetrading]

Quote from Nanook:

I am one of those that "mis-understood" what you meant:
Please "re-explain" your "redo it".
Thanks.

Let me know if my previous did not clarify things a bit. And thank you for being polite-- it is with people like you in mind that I take the time to exchange views in here-- Also I will forgive those who liked me less.

Cheers!

 

[illiquid]

Quote from Mike Morrison:

AMZN earnings were last week...LOL!

Fucking histerical.

Like I said, don't bother. I'm really not interested in what anyone with 3K+ posts has to say.

Lol mb (the time sure does fly), thanks for the correction. But the gist of the post remains the same, and it wasn't written for you personally. I can tell already you've contributed many constructive posts with well placed f bombs

 

[BPtrader]

Quote from riskfreetrading:



In my view this past Wednesday was a typically day wished for by traders--- "easy" and classical. Seasoned traders should love it, as the market was clearly going down in continuation of previous day, smooth in its progress and yet fast.

My suggestion to you: shut up your mouth, because you have no clue what you are talking about.

In 5 years, you may (not guaranteed) realize how stupid your comment is.

I am not going to tell you why, you have to get it by yourself, if you are lucky.

Neke is one of the few traders who graduated from the University of Hardknocks, while you, my friend, has just registered for Trading 101 course.

by the way, 95% of the students in the University of Hardknocks fail to graduate, go figure your own chance of survival.

 

[riskfreetrading]

Quote from BPtrader:

My suggestion to you: shut up your mouth, because you have no clue what you are talking about.

In 5 years, you may (not guaranteed) realize how stupid your comment is.

I am not going to tell you why, you have to get it by yourself, if you are lucky.

Neke is one of the few traders who graduated from the University of Hardknocks, while you, my friend, has just registered for Trading 101 course.

by the way, 95% of the students in the University of Hardknocks fail to graduate, go figure your own chance of survival.

Are you a fan of Neke, or someone else I know under another handle? If I were Neke I would be proud of my fans who would be ready to be hurt to protect me.

Tell me, why should I believe what you wrote: You gave no proof/justification.

As for what I will know, I hope I will know more in the future. Is it not a reason that why we live is to be better in the future?

As for what I know, check my posts this week. I nailed the exact top of EUR/USD on Sunday in realtime as it happened here on ET, in addition to other stock tops in three other Journal posts to help folks, and sometimes to take their other side and let them know before hand. Read my posts over the last 7 days and so to find them. (Examples of Stocks in questions are C, GNW, LVS, IWM, and others I forget others). BTW, nailing tops and bottoms are not the aim for other reasons other than the difficulty to do it. The reason for my trial with tops and bottoms is to sharpen my skills in reading less difficult situations in markets such as a trend under way.

I am not claiming that I am superior to others, and I have my own share of human shortcomings.

One other thing I do not have much of is capital, but I would be there over time. My initial interest in markets was not to make money but rather to run laboratory experiments with respect to human nature as a group.