Taking 1million to zero in "n" months.

Riffraffpatrol · May 5, 2012

Quote from G-Unit:

Haha.. looks like his account hasn't changed much since mid March. Which I guess is probably a good thing considering the title of this journal.

$ 205,000 increase in approx 2 months???

It is obvious from your post history that u just want to blather about nothing but politics on a trading forum. Even further obvious that u cant stand the fact that PHX can talk politics AND TRADE as well.

Go find someone else to stalk.

PHOENIX TRADING · May 5, 2012

Quote from G-Unit:

Haha.. looks like his account hasn't changed much since mid March. Which I guess is probably a good thing considering the title of this journal.

I'll be the first to admit I cannot accurately predict the future of the market.
Apparently the really sweet trades are over for awhile with my approach. It doesn't mean profits are not possible but they come at increased probability of negative manifestations of risk.

I don't think I would get worried unless my account dropped to 250k. At that point I would be forced to either find out what went wrong or change my approach.( I could easily avg very conservative 10-12% returns/yr without account size affecting returns)

Of course the first week I start my taxable trading account (with borrowed funds) I get bit in the a$$.

flipside21 · May 5, 2012

Quote from PHOENIX TRADING:

( I could easily avg very conservative 10-12% returns/yr without account size affecting returns)

I wouldn't say easy. My equity has been like a rollercoaster due to aggressive positions. Trying to measure my Sharpe ratio would be a total effin joke.

PHOENIX TRADING · May 5, 2012

Quote from flipside21:

I wouldn't say easy. My equity has been like a rollercoaster due to aggressive positions. Trying to measure my Sharpe ratio would be a total effin joke.

Those are 2 separate things annual returns and smoothness of equity curve.
Also if you will note I said avg annual returns of 12% are quite easy.

flipside21 · May 5, 2012

Quote from PHOENIX TRADING:

Those are 2 separate things annual returns and smoothness of equity curve.
Also if you will note I said avg annual returns of 12% are quite easy.

IMHO, annual returns and smoothness of equity curve are directly related to each other. A trader shooting for 100% returns probably expect 50% drawdowns, whereas if you're aiming for only 12% gain, you should only see a max loss of 6% throughout any point in time if your trading system or method is really good.

PHOENIX TRADING · May 5, 2012

I'll restate it for you.
I expect I can achieve average annualized returns of 10-12% /yr fairly easily with little effort.(this is my fail-safe method not my current one)

That does not mean it won't be volatile in the short run.
I really don't care if my system or method is good, all I care about is the ending value. Of course that's as long as I have income from other sources in the meantime.

Getting overly myopic thinking you can predict or have shallow drawdowns is the way to ruin or significant under-performance IMHO.

PHOENIX TRADING · May 5, 2012

Quote from flipside21:

IMHO, annual returns and smoothness of equity curve are directly related to each other. A trader shooting for 100% returns probably expect 50% drawdowns, whereas if you're aiming for only 12% gain, you should only see a max loss of 6% throughout any point in time if your trading system or method is really good.

Too many people believing that was precisely what allowed bernie madoff to get away with his scam for so long that and an appeal to authority (non-executive chairman of the NASDAQ stock market,).

flipside21 · May 5, 2012

Quote from PHOENIX TRADING:

I'll restate it for you.
I expect I can achieve average annualized returns of 10-12% /yr fairly easily with little effort.(this is my fail-safe method not my current one)

Well, good for you, but for me I put in a lot of effort to earn a measly 7% return last year, though at one point during the year I was up as much as 67%. Ended up giving back 60% of the gains.

PHOENIX TRADING · May 5, 2012

Quote from flipside21:

Well, good for you, but for me I put in a lot of effort to earn a measly 7% return last year, though at one point during the year I was up as much as 67%. Ended up giving back 60% of the gains.

Sorry to hear that but focusing on only 1 years returns really isn't all that relevant unless the losses were attributable to your system.

Maybe last year was a fluke, it happens.

btw: A 60% drawdown is not outside my expected potential loses on my fail safe method if that makes you feel any better.

G-Unit · May 5, 2012

Quote from Riffraffpatrol:

$ 205,000 increase in approx 2 months???

It is obvious from your post history that u just want to blather about nothing but politics on a trading forum. Even further obvious that u cant stand the fact that PHX can talk politics AND TRADE as well.

Go find someone else to stalk.

Hmm didn't he start out with 1 million? Isn't that what the title says? Losing close to 60% of your initial and then gaining 40% of what you have left after that is not the same. So he's still down 35-40% overall.

I think he should stick to doing 10-12% returns if he says he can do it consistently.

As far as your posts go, you've been stalking people here. No suprise. Perhaps you need a stalker.

I don't agree with Hoover trading's politics but I am seperate as far as trading goes. If he wins or loses, doesn't effect me. I just don't like the name of his thread.

A 60% possible drawdown on 10-12% fail safe gains? I'm scratching my head here. Thought it was supposed to be fail safe.