Taking 1million to zero in "n" months.

Quote from Wide Tailz:

My original point is as valid here as in your journal: success in any speculative venture is all about the risk:reward ratio and the bet size.

If the trader can't size up the likely minimum R multiple for every trade, it's guessing. You are either the player or the game. You create the game. If you don't, you take the other side of traders who do.

A low risk idea will always have a favorable multiple of potential reward compared to worst case downside.

I'd be happy to discuss this idea in your journal but you have not explained what you are doing, so I must assume you are guessing.

I also assume your outlook is that trading is a battle, a fight to the death. I see it differently: I aim to partner with the market and help it discover transactions at whichever price it may need to move toward. There are many low risk ways to do this.

:)
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Q:Am I guessing ?
A: Sure I am nobody knows the future

I know I'm going to get a lot of wrath for this but perhaps I don't know what you mean by low risk set ups.


I'm assuming you see a pattern or something in price action or some chart action and you think it has predictive power on the future and it's risk.

You may fervently believe that, but I'm more than a little skeptical.

1) The chief risk once you enter a position is going to be the risk of the security . say a utility company vs double financial etf.



I'm sorry I only can use 7th grade math but:

2) This stuff about position sizing, r and all that crap tharp etc popularized is not well suited to trading. It's very well suited to games of chance where the odds are known.



2A) The fact of the matter is in trading the odds are not known nor can they be known nor are returns and price action (bell shaped) normal distribution.

2b) Most importantly IF you believe such and such patterns ARE in the least bit predictive they are requisitely self limiting.

Because unlike games of chance in which the odds are known, your actions actually change the game when you are trading .
 
I don't predict what will happen, I predict that if it happens, it will reward me at a multiple at least 3x the amount that would lose if the desired case does not work out.

I also predict that I will not allow The Market to take more than 5% of my account in a week.

I also predict that I will be able to exit all positions immediately for any reason.

And I predict that I will always follow my plan (this requires predicting that I make a plan before entering a trade, including the risk exit).

Low risk setups always have a way out that will not penalize your account more than a few percent, yet have the potential to reward your account several times more if you end up on the right side of the move.

Now that we got this out of the way, what is your plan? Or do you trade on intuition? What helps you make a decision to enter or exit the trade?

Can you share that information without feeling like The Market will suddenly run your stops?

I can - my stops are so far below the range of price action for the past several days and my plan requires my entry to be off a recent double bottom or higher low that I can do this and stay within my plan. I can also set my leverage level to keep the total risk of loss below 2% for any case. And I can find my setup often enough to still have the potential to double my account in a year with this position size and a 50% win rate.

Have you thought through your plan to this level of detail?

I hope we're not on malicious terms with each other.

:)
 
Quote from Wide Tailz:

1)I don't predict what will happen, I predict that if it happens, it will reward me at a multiple at least 3x the amount that would lose if the desired case does not work out.



2)I also predict that I will not allow The Market to take more than 5% of my account in a week.

3)I also predict that I will be able to exit all positions immediately for any reason.

4)And I predict that I will always follow my plan (this requires predicting that I make a plan before entering a trade, including the risk exit).

5)Low risk setups always have a way out that will not penalize your account more than a few percent, yet have the potential to reward your account several times more if you end up on the right side of the move.

6)Now that we got this out of the way, what is your plan? Or do you trade on intuition? What helps you make a decision to enter or exit the trade?

7)Can you share that information without feeling like The Market will suddenly run your stops?

8)I can - my stops are so far below the range of price action for the past several days and my plan requires my entry to be off a recent double bottom or higher low that I can do this and stay within my plan. I can also set my leverage level to keep the total risk of loss below 2% for any case. And I can find my setup often enough to still have the potential to double my account in a year with this position size and a 50% win rate.

9)Have you thought through your plan to this level of detail?

10)I hope we're not on malicious terms with each other.

:)
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1) You don't see expecting a 3x "R" if you win as predicting?

2) Stops can help .

3) Well I hope you can but I wouldn't count on it.

4) You would be the rare individual to always follow your plan.
5) I'm agnostic but okay.

6) I'd rather not go into specifics but there are some ratio's that I use. I also use my own sentiment on s&p 500 action.

7) I don't use stops, I buy all in or all out whole portfolio in one single trade.

8) Call me crazy but I'd rather watch like a hawk and if I get spooked then I would get out.


9) Perhaps not

10) we're cool :cool:
 
My hat is off to you, PT.

Kudos for hangin' in there in the face of adversity.

Good times are right around the corner...:)

Gotta go, dog barking to come back in.
 
Quote from keeptradin':

My hat is off to you, PT.

Kudos for hangin' in there in the face of adversity.

Good times are right around the corner...:)

Gotta go, dog barking to come back in.
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thanks , asia is looking a bit peckish tonight and socialist hollende did win in france.

I don't think european markets are gonna like that, I suspect should have gotten flat but kinda hoping it was priced in as it was not a surprise.


Might I suggest levered door handles vs round, that way the dog can just let himself in.
 
I don't get why would you want to title a journal taking your account to zero. It's like the person who called himself "failed_trader." Seems like self-sabotage.
 
Quote from PHOENIX TRADING:

oh fvck me, pre-open futures down 1% indicates a 4 or more % loss today poor chinese manf and french elections : europe down 3-4 %.
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Lol.
 
Quote from PHOENIX TRADING:

It happens.:cool:
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I know. Long 1 lot from 2678.25 on NQ. Will probably get a pairs signal after today, and quintuple my current position size.
 
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