Taking 103K to 1.2million by Year End 2008

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Quote from FGBS:

Good stuff Neke, just a quick question about your volatility. How does it affect you mentally now that you have had quite a few of these big swing days?

Do you go home on the good days feeling like the BSD and looking at the floor tiles on the bad days or can you block it out well from your personal life?

Best of luck and still massively enjoying reading your views and trades.
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Of course it always feels bad to lose. There are lessons learnt or re-learnt from almost any loss, but generally a big loss means next time I am going to be careful and play more according to plan, and as long as I do that I think the account growth takes care of itself.
 
Weekly Update for week 48 ended 12/12/2008

An OK week, up 18K (4.2%). Very few trades (13), but still plenty of action.

Fell into a big hole on Monday, shorting the SPY soon after the open (10000 @ 90.37). Shorted CME as well 2000 @ 210, another 2000 @ 220). Closed SPY @ 91.8, losing 14K, CME at 223.5, losing 32K. Total loss for the day 51K.

Came back powerfully on Tuesday. Again it was CME. Got 60 put contracts @ 12 when the stock rose as high as 236 (The stock had become non-shortable just when it was ripe for shorting). Sold near end of day for $20 per contract, netting 48K.

Wed was relatively quiet, losing 6K on ERTS.

Should have stayed off the market on Thur because there were no opportunities. However, bought into the fake strength in the SPY and BIDU. Watched as another Thur afternoon swoop thrashed my positions, losing 14K on the SPY and 25K on BIDU.

Finally made it on Fri buying the early morning sell off in SPY long and calls, making 29K on the stock, and 25K on the option. Market played out
exactly like last week (End of day sell-off on Thur, Sell off at Open on Fri, followed by a tremendous rally from the open. The market obviously wants to go up.)

Looking for discipline to stay off when the market has nothing to offer.

Code: 
Opening Balance:               	    	432,427
Net gain for the week 		         18,119
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance:                   		450,546
Number of Trades	            	 13
Number of Profitable Trades    	    	  7

Since Inception of Thread   01/13/2008 - 12/12/2008

Opening Balance:                   	102,615
Net gain (Less Margin Interest)		372,931
------------------------------------------------
Balance Before Withdrawal:            	475,546  (Up 363%)
Cash Withdrawal				-25,000
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance				450,546

Number of Trades	           	1127
Number of Profitable Trades        	 665


Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week

TICKER	ENTRY DATE/TIME		EXIT DATE/TIME		QTY	PURCHASE AMT	SOLD AMT	GAIN/LOSS	TYPE

CMEXL	2008-12-09-10-44-04	2008-12-09-15-56-33	6000	72400		120000		47509		CME PUT
SPY	2008-12-12-09-33-11	2008-12-12-12-59-13	10000	854400		884000		29595		LONG
SZCLH	2008-12-12-09-34-10	2008-12-12-12-58-34	20000	52470		78000		25230		SPY CALL
---------------------------------------------------
SPY	2008-12-11-14-15-23	2008-12-11-15-03-16	10000	896492		882040		-14457		LONG
BIDU	2008-12-11-11-50-12	2008-12-11-14-44-24	4000	476860		452029		-24833		LONG
CME	2008-12-08-09-34-58	2008-12-08-15-58-56	3500	782250		750000		-32254		SHORT

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Quote from neke:

Came back powerfully on Tuesday. Again it was CME. Got 60 put contracts @ 12 when the stock rose as high as 236 (The stock had become non-shortable just when it was ripe for shorting). Sold near end of day for $20 per contract, netting 48K.
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Neke, nice job building your account. The option spreads on a stock like CME are usually rather large. Does the spread affect which strike price you plan to trade? Also, how do you choose where to price your bids and offers, at market, or do you pick a price somewhere in the middle?
 
Quote from NoDoji:

Neke, nice job building your account. The option spreads on a stock like CME are usually rather large. Does the spread affect which strike price you plan to trade? Also, how do you choose where to price your bids and offers, at market, or do you pick a price somewhere in the middle?
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I use a limit order somewhere between the bid and ask. Example, if is is bid 11.60 ask 12.30, I may place the bid order at 12.00. I could still pay for slippage, but normally not as much as the quoted spread. I would normally go for the strike out of the money but nearest the money.
 
Quote from telozo:

Way to go neke! I hope you started to pay some of those taxes :) .
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Based on current balance, I should be mopping up 150K in two week's time.
 
Quote from forextrades:

Get out now, kid.

There are other ways to make big money. Start a business, invest in real estate, become a contractor.
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Where would Neke be today had he taken this advice back on July 12th?
 
With all due respect for Neke, statistically he is about 5 in 100 who made it this far (especially with the risk he is dragging along), and this comment should make it clear that I even respect him the more for his outstanding performance.

But lets be clear about the fact that this is an outstanding and exceptional performance most others dont have the stomach and mentual make up to mimic his returns. Also, I think its bullocks to use Neke's returns to criticize the comment below, whoever may have given it. I also find it laughable to hear each and every week some wannabe traders and high school kids who made Neke to their new trading-guru. Neke's risk levels make it very clear that he has got to endure some very nasty drawdowns (which he already went through) and that there is a risk of complete blowup should he hit a streak of losing trades that exceeds statistical normalty.

I am not one of those doomsday sayers and proclaim a sure blow up for Neke but what I do say is that his performance is a direct function of an extremely high risk level he is accepting to take. Most here love the returns but dont want to take the risk -> This does not go together!!!


Quote from NoDoji:

Where would Neke be today had he taken this advice back on July 12th?
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Neke: shortie told me about your thread in a PM. I did not even know you existed if it were not to him.

I like the action on this thread!

Question:

1. Why you do not work with ITM options (sell ITM calls instead of buying puts for instance)?

2. If you can look at your money management, how does it compare to Kelly's fraction? (are you above it or below it).

3. If you can give your ratios: prob of win, average win, average loss, it would be good!
 
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