Taking 103K to 1.2million by Year End 2008

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Neke, sorry about your week.

What was your reasoning behind the large position in WYNN? Just my two cents, but I would only consider such a large position on a stock that was trading near 52-week highs or lows and far from its 20-day moving average. In that case it would be likely to pull back toward its moving average. If you look at a 1-year chart you'll see that $122 is in the middle of its long term trading range, so long term investors wouldn't think it was all that expensive above $100.

However, once it was trading in the $115-$120 range it had reached the point that the 20-day moving average magnet would likely pull it back. I, too, traded WYNN puts looking for an intraday move when there were no shares available to short, but I took a very small position, because of the factors above, and when the trade moved against me the loss was tolerable.
 
Quote from neke:

I hope these set-backs end soon. I need to finish the year with a decent gain.
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Hi Neke,

Sorry about your loss. May I suggest that you take a break for a couple of weeks, clear your head and then come back and trade like the winner you are?

All the best,

Jorge
 
Neke, slow down man. You are trying to make money TOO fast. You DEFINITELY should not have swings like that from week to week trading with $100K. I would rather make 100 trades netting me $100K total than one gamble trade making me $100K. Slow and steady is the way to go. Don't listen to anyone who tells you otherwise.

You definitely need to lower you position size. I know generally adding to a losing position is not good, but I also do it with my strategy. Even if the position goes against me more than I would like, smaller size allows me to add more to it at the top if I miss the top with my initial entry. And I don't have to exit with a big loss only to have it finally go my way after I exited because I overextended myself. I mean what is the chance that your initial entry will be perfect? Better to enter small.
 
Weekly Update for week 32 ended 08/23/2008

Flattish week, up $593 (0.5%).

The week was made of a collection of meagre trades, amounting to a little more than break-even. The emphasis for the rest of the year is sticking to my position sizing plan. Each strategy has a maximum exposure limit, which is dependent on how well the strategy has done, to be reviewed on a weekly basis. This way I get to cut-down on the amount I expend on losing strategies without having to shut them down altogether. I do sincerely hope I can stick to this formula and turn up a decent return on the few strategies that are working.


Code: 
Opening Balance:               	    	119,607
Net gain for the week 		            593   
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance:                   		120,200
Number of Trades	            	 27
Number of Profitable Trades    	    	 18

Since Inception of Thread   01/13/2008 - 08/23/2008

Opening Balance:                   	102,615
Net gain (Less Margin Interest)		 27,585
------------------------------------------------
Balance Before Withdrawal:            	130,200  (Up 26.9%)
Cash Withdrawal				-10,000
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance				120,200

Number of Trades	           	766
Number of Profitable Trades        	438



Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week

TICKER	ENTRY DATE/TIME		EXIT DATE/TIME		QTY	PURCHASE AMT	SOLD AMT	GAIN/LOSS	TYPE

CLR	2008-08-20-09-41-52	2008-08-20-10-38-27	2200	109738		113574		3806		SHORT
---------------------------------------------------------------
SPLS	2008-08-19-09-30-44	2008-08-19-09-57-16	4000	93800		88520		-5301		SHORT
 
Weekly Update for week 33 ended 08/30/2008

An OK week, up $4732 (3.9%).

Should be a more decent week, but started horribly losing 9K on some irrational trades on HWAY on Monday.

Planned Trade

Qty to buy: 1000 shares @ 20.70 (contrarian thinking it should rebound, minimal size since strategy has not proved itself), to get out end of day.

Had I adhered to the plan, would have closed at end of day @ 19.73, losing 1K.

Actual Trade

Bought 1000 @ 20.70. A few seconds later bought another 1000 @ 20.72 (not sure what I was thinking). The stock kept dropping to 19.70, bought another 2000 shares @ 19.70. Now fully loaded up, four times my intended size. Stock kept dropping further to 18.76. Panic! Closed all my positions, for a loss of 6K. Deeply hurt, went for a revenge, shorting 3000 shares at 18.7 (no reason to short of course, and no plan!). After that the stock bottomed at 18.57, and started coming back (I should have seen that of course!). Finally covered at 19.7 for another loss of 3K.

Total Actual loss: 9K vs Planned loss of: 1K

Such summarizes the issues putting a lid on my performance. You would think I should have gotten over all that, but it is taking far longer to overcome. Good thing, they used to be the norm in my losing years; maybe they will be completely vanquished some day.


Code: 
Opening Balance:               	    	120,200
Net gain for the week 		          4,732   
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance:                   		124,932
Number of Trades	            	 29
Number of Profitable Trades    	    	 19

Since Inception of Thread   01/13/2008 - 08/29/2008

Opening Balance:                   	102,615
Net gain (Less Margin Interest)		 32,317
------------------------------------------------
Balance Before Withdrawal:            	134,932  (Up 31.5%)
Cash Withdrawal				-10,000
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance				124,932

Number of Trades	           	795
Number of Profitable Trades        	467



Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week

TICKER	ENTRY DATE/TIME		EXIT DATE/TIME		QTY	PURCHASE AMT	SOLD AMT	GAIN/LOSS	TYPE

HWAY	2008-08-25-09-30-30	2008-08-25-10-01-24	4000	81017		75076		-5981		LONG
HWAY	2008-08-25-10-03-13	2008-08-25-10-24-33	3000	59344		56379		-2986		SHORT
-----------------------------------------------------
CMEIX	2008-08-27-09-58-16	2008-08-27-12-03-43	1000	12600		17800		5165		CME CALL

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Neke, try some visualizing techniques...

...when you take the trade, visualize where you want to get out both in a profit state and a loss state.

...imagine how you'd feel in both places. As the trade moves toward your stop loss, visualize yourself not pulling the trigger and the stock moving against you 5...10....15%. Imagine the emotions you'll feel if you don't pull the trigger as the stock moves toward your stop loss.

...on your profits. Do the same. Imagine as it approaches your target and you not pulling the trigger. Imagine the stock collapsing and the emtions you'd feel as it went against you.

...try being proactive and imagining exactly the emtions you'll be feeling if you don't execute your plan and the losses mount.
 
Quote from neke:



Planned Trade

Qty to buy: 1000 shares @ 20.70 (contrarian thinking it should rebound, minimal size since strategy has not proved itself), to get out end of day.

Had I adhered to the plan, would have closed at end of day @ 19.73, losing 1K.

Actual Trade

Bought 1000 @ 20.70. A few seconds later bought another 1000 @ 20.72 (not sure what I was thinking). The stock kept dropping to 19.70, bought another 2000 shares @ 19.70. Now fully loaded up, four times my intended size. Stock kept dropping further to 18.76. Panic! Closed all my positions, for a loss of 6K. Deeply hurt, went for a revenge, shorting 3000 shares at 18.7 (no reason to short of course, and no plan!). After that the stock bottomed at 18.57, and started coming back (I should have seen that of course!). Finally covered at 19.7 for another loss of 3K.

Total Actual loss: 9K vs Planned loss of: 1K

Such summarizes the issues putting a lid on my performance. You would think I should have gotten over all that, but it is taking far longer to overcome. Good thing, they used to be the norm in my losing years; maybe they will be completely vanquished some day.
More...

Awesome that you share these points of view. It takes balls to write your faults here and let everyone blast you for them but its admittng to and dealing with the faults that will eventually get you your 1.2 mil.
Gluck

FGBS
 
Weekly Update for week 34 ended 09/06/2008


Solid week, up $29,916 (23.9%). The market owes me an apology though for the scare, and the volatility in my account.

I don't know what is wrong with the first trading days of the week, but lately they have been set-backs. Bought into the strong opening on Tuesday with SPY calls and sat back to reap the rewards. Was not to be as the market sold off. Scaled out and went back in after some more selling, thinking it would bounce. No way. Lost 6K.

Came Wednesday, and commodities started selling off. picked up calls on POT and FSLR. A litte bounce, and closed out portions by day end. Thursday, the market started its massive descent. Thought it was overdone, and added calls on BIDU and MA. To my horror, the sell-off accelerated even till end of day. Closed out portions and carried rest overnight till Friday. As expected after such a massive dump, there was more to come in the morning. Finally by 10.45am with S&P down 15 pts, felt chance to load up on WLT and SPY calls. Finally right in a big way! Closed most of the positions by end of day. Up 30K for the week, with an additional unrealised gain of 4.3K being held till next week.

What a market! At one point on Thursday I was down 30K for the week in unrealised losses. Glad to have bounced back mightily, but I am going to re-examine my portfolio risk rules. With a combination of long positions in commodities and broader market, you would think the combined exposure will not be as risky. However, all that reverse correlation between the broader market and commodities got shattered this week.


Code: 
Opening Balance:               	    	124,932
Net gain for the week 		         29,916   
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance:                   		154,848
Number of Trades	            	 12
Number of Profitable Trades    	    	  6

Since Inception of Thread   01/13/2008 - 09/06/2008

Opening Balance:                   	102,615
Net gain (Less Margin Interest)		 62,233
------------------------------------------------
Balance Before Withdrawal:            	164,848  (Up 60.6%)
Cash Withdrawal				-10,000
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance				154,848

Number of Trades	           	807
Number of Profitable Trades        	473



Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week

TICKER	ENTRY DATE/TIME		EXIT DATE/TIME		QTY	PURCHASE AMT	SOLD AMT	GAIN/LOSS	TYPE

SFBIZ	2008-09-02-09-30-14	2008-09-02-13-19-41	20000	40450		35400		-5390		SPY CALL
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WLTIN	2008-09-05-10-43-16	2008-09-05-15-52-14	4000	17600		36800		19120		WLT CALL

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