Taking 103K to 1.2million by Year End 2008
- Thread starter neke
- Start date
- Status
I hear that! SOHU dips, I buy calls, it dips further, the spring's tight, then it rebounds, then climbs further on good news, but I'm really nervous about its inability to break very minor resistance like it did last time, and I take a teeny tiny profit and I'm down on myself for not having the fortitude to keep it in play, until I watch the calls I no longer own lose half their value overnight.
I'm looking for high probability shorts, and OCT puts on WGO seem like a slam dunk. Opinions, please: What's my greatest risk on this trade, Kerkorian buys them out for @15/share?
Please ignore your "targets", especially since, as you have said yourself, you have deviated from your plan....therefore, your original goal is of no consequence.
Are these deviations set in stone within your method or are they one time events?
You seem to know what you are trying to achieve, but your emotions seem to take over your trading...try halving your commitments and simply accept some small profits to gain some momentum...you are currently confronted with a difficult market, but given reasonable "luck' you will succeed.
If you knock up a 50% return this year that will be great...
Are these deviations set in stone within your method or are they one time events?
You seem to know what you are trying to achieve, but your emotions seem to take over your trading...try halving your commitments and simply accept some small profits to gain some momentum...you are currently confronted with a difficult market, but given reasonable "luck' you will succeed.
If you knock up a 50% return this year that will be great...
Weekly Update for week 24 ended 06/27/2008
Sober week, up 12.8K (11.3%).
No huge gainer, but a collection of good trades (70% win-rate) accounted for the performance, as I sought to look well before leaping this week.
Nice way to end the month, even though I am still down for the month.
With one trading day left to round up the second quarter, I am up by 28K, while my broker has collected 20K for the two quarters. This is a better ratio than the ratio at the end of the first quarter (5K:8K), but still way behind expectations. Ideally I expect a ratio of 10:1 or better in my favour.
Being way behind my intended target at this time I shall continue with my regular job while trading the market. I am looking forward to greater improvement in the third quarter as I use my automated system to check my tendencies to pander to losing strategies. Greater attention will be paid towards increasing the quality rather than quantity of trades.
Sober week, up 12.8K (11.3%).
No huge gainer, but a collection of good trades (70% win-rate) accounted for the performance, as I sought to look well before leaping this week.
Nice way to end the month, even though I am still down for the month.
With one trading day left to round up the second quarter, I am up by 28K, while my broker has collected 20K for the two quarters. This is a better ratio than the ratio at the end of the first quarter (5K:8K), but still way behind expectations. Ideally I expect a ratio of 10:1 or better in my favour.
Being way behind my intended target at this time I shall continue with my regular job while trading the market. I am looking forward to greater improvement in the third quarter as I use my automated system to check my tendencies to pander to losing strategies. Greater attention will be paid towards increasing the quality rather than quantity of trades.
Code:
Opening Balance: 113,138
Net gain for the week 12,838
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Net Balance: 125,976
Number of Trades 27
Number of Profitable Trades 19
Since Inception of Thread 01/13/2008 - 06/27/2008
Opening Balance: 102,615
Net gain (Less Margin Interest) 28,361
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Balance Before Withdrawal: 130,976 (Up 27.6%)
Cash Withdrawal -5,000
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Net Balance 125,976
Number of Trades 555
Number of Profitable Trades 316
Expected Balance at this time to be on track for Year-End Target :
334,132
Status: Behind Target (Based on adjusted balance before withdrawals)
Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week
TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE
MALGX 2008-06-26-13-34-48 2008-06-26-15-01-34 2000 22600 26800 4150 MA CALL
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EK 2008-06-25-09-46-46 2008-06-25-15-44-55 4006 60811 57898 -2934 SHORTIt really does not make any sense to set a short-term numerical target like you are doing.
Your profits really hinge on the CAPABILITY of your system. You can set any target you want, but whether your system can hit the target is a different story.
Nevertheless, you are using real money with a real strategy that YOU have developed.
You are the man.
Amen to that.
Good to see you up again, Neke. What's your plan for the next half of the year? Are you going to revise your target/plan? Do you have a monetary goal to quit your job or will it be a function of how well you're trading.
Man, it really takes some cojones to take those 10% weekly swings.
Best trading,
Jorge
Weekly Update for week 25 ended 07/05/2008
Should be a good week, up 17.6K, (14.0%), but for an unrealised loss of 8K I am carrying on an open position.
Really hit a good run rate (15 winners vs. 4 losers), even though there were no stand-out trades except FSLR on Friday. I really regret not being very aggressive Friday morning when everything was being thrown out. Was only able to buy FSLR CALL option when the stock came down to about 236 (bought option at 12.5), and sold when it rebounded to about 242 (option at 15.4), making about 6K. Very poor decision not hanging on to a winner. The stock closed the day above 253. Had I held, I should have made more than 14K extra!
Hoping for better times next week, although it is hard to see how the position being held will be closed at a profit (unless the S&P500 jumps 50 points next week!).
Should be a good week, up 17.6K, (14.0%), but for an unrealised loss of 8K I am carrying on an open position.
Really hit a good run rate (15 winners vs. 4 losers), even though there were no stand-out trades except FSLR on Friday. I really regret not being very aggressive Friday morning when everything was being thrown out. Was only able to buy FSLR CALL option when the stock came down to about 236 (bought option at 12.5), and sold when it rebounded to about 242 (option at 15.4), making about 6K. Very poor decision not hanging on to a winner. The stock closed the day above 253. Had I held, I should have made more than 14K extra!
Hoping for better times next week, although it is hard to see how the position being held will be closed at a profit (unless the S&P500 jumps 50 points next week!).
Code:
Opening Balance: 125,976
Net gain for the week 17,647
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Net Balance: 143,623
Number of Trades 19
Number of Profitable Trades 15
Since Inception of Thread 01/13/2008 - 07/05/2008
Opening Balance: 102,615
Net gain (Less Margin Interest) 46,008
------------------------------------------------
Balance Before Withdrawal: 148,623 (Up 44.8%)
Cash Withdrawal -5,000
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Net Balance 143,623
Number of Trades 574
Number of Profitable Trades 320
Expected Balance at this time to be on track for Year-End Target :
350,979
Status: Behind Target (Based on adjusted balance before withdrawals)
Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week
TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE
HJQGW 2008-07-03-09-48-38 2008-07-03-10-35-02 2000 25000 30800 5750 FSLR CALL
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X 2008-07-02-11-41-45 2008-07-02-14-30-25 1100 179023 177360 -1714 LONGI normally go for the next strike price (from current price). In this case, yes, 260 strike could have made for faster appreciation, but it is not always the case (bearing in mind how much the stock appreciates, the bid-ask spread, and time to expiration - The closer to expiration, the faster the way-out-of-money will decline). My experience is that I reduce slippage (spread as percentage of investment) to a minimum when I go for the nearest strike, which also normally has the greater liquidity.
And BTW, congrats on your superlative performance presented in your MACD/Trendline thread.
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