Take the Index Piker Challenge

[Pekelo]

I wish you good luck, but...

Quote from Index piker:

1) Yesterday was good because nothing would suit me better (as a long term investor) than a return to march 2009 lows with cash reserves to invest.

This approach only makes sense when you are in cash. Welcoming a 40% drop when you are already long is silly. Also your earlier statement that drawdown doesn't count unless it is 100% was simply ridiculous.


No way am I going to take signals from some internet timing system.

[shrug]

You should keep a more open mind, because:

1. Metastock is actually a $3000 program, but running it on the Dow is published for free on that website.

2. Since you have plenty of time, you could have backtested it and seen that it is pretty damn accurate.

3. I don't think your timing is that particular good. Don't mistake having large cash reserves and being able to average in with the ability to time the market....

4. There is sometimes such a thing as value for free, but very few people are able to recognize it...

Anyway, good luck and hope for a positive close by Dec 31st...

P.S.: Returning to the 2009 March lows with your current leverage would wipe you out, if my math is correct...

 

[Bolimomo]

Quote from Index piker:


1) Seems you misinterpreted my posting about not needing to focus on the short term, into ascribing characteristics about you. My focus is on the long term, drawdowns <100% are irrelevant.

Sorry I think you may want to re-think that. A drawdown of 99% is very relevant. It means you are out of the game. No you are not out of time, you are out of capital eventhough you may have 100 years to sit it out.

 

[l2tradr]

Quote from Index piker:

Yesterday was good because nothing would suit me better (as a long term investor) than a return to march 2009 lows with cash reserves to invest.

...except you have no (or very little) cash.

Anyways, best of luck, please send my regards to your cousin stocktrad3r.

 

[Index piker]

Quote from l2tradr:

...except you have no (or very little) cash.

Anyways, best of luck, please send my regards to your cousin stocktrad3r.

I'm not exactly sure where you get the idea that I'm left in dire straits if my account value drops.

fyi: I will be building up cash from earnings until advantageous conditions arise once again.

 

[l2tradr]

Quote from Index piker:

I'm not exactly sure where you get the idea that I'm left in dire straits if my account value drops.

fyi: I will be building up cash from earnings until advantageous conditions arise once again.

Didn't say you are left in "dire straits" but I did imply that you have no cash IN THAT ACCOUNT. Even with any dividends coming in, cash will be minimal.

 

[Index piker]

Quote from l2tradr:

Didn't say you are left in "dire straits" but I did imply that you have no cash IN THAT ACCOUNT. Even with any dividends coming in, cash will be minimal.

I was merely trying to inform you ,that your implication is wrong and options for managing the situation have already been thought out.

best of luck to you.



btw: What's keeping you from accepting the challenge?

 

[Index piker]

Quote from Bolimomo:

Sorry I think you may want to re-think that. A drawdown of 99% is very relevant. It means you are out of the game. No you are not out of time, you are out of capital eventhough you may have 100 years to sit it out.

I have thought it out and I may be wrong under specific circumstances but I am not remiss in my general thinking.

Obviously a loss of 99% would present a huge challenge,
but the conditions under which that could happen would also present an equally large opportunity.

(would dow 400 be a disaster for you or an opportunity of a lifetime? )

Unless of course ,if you are predicting an end of the world as we know it scenario, then under those conditions I won't be any worse off than the lot of you.


I guess knowing one thing about myself unwaveringly is that compared to most investors "I have brass balls" and I'm willing to use that trait if that's what's required.

 

[Index piker]

Quote from Pekelo:

I wish you good luck, but...

Quote from Index piker:

1) Yesterday was good because nothing would suit me better (as a long term investor) than a return to march 2009 lows with cash reserves to invest.

This approach only makes sense when you are in cash. Welcoming a 40% drop when you are already long is silly. Also your earlier statement that drawdown doesn't count unless it is 100% was simply ridiculous.


No way am I going to take signals from some internet timing system.

[shrug]

You should keep a more open mind, because:

1. Metastock is actually a $3000 program, but running it on the Dow is published for free on that website.

2. Since you have plenty of time, you could have backtested it and seen that it is pretty damn accurate.

3. I don't think your timing is that particular good. Don't mistake having large cash reserves and being able to average in with the ability to time the market....

4. There is sometimes such a thing as value for free, but very few people are able to recognize it...

Anyway, good luck and hope for a positive close by Dec 31st...

2)P.S.: Returning to the 2009 March lows with your current leverage would wipe you out, if my math is correct...

I'd say we have vastly different ideas on what constitutes "SILLY".

One definition of "silly" to me would be trusting your life savings to some blackbox market timing method offered for FREE on the internet.

I mean good lord man, you strike me as a trading peddlers dream cum true. I hope you wise up soon if I'm correct. If I'm wrong you have my apologies in advance.

here's a hint: There is no such thing as the holy grail of trading.


2) No, I would not be wiped out.

 

[Index piker]

Quote from talontrading:

Hi Piker,

1)Just thought I'd drop you a little note and see how that levered long portfolio is doing.
2)Also, when you get really excited and flip levered short, please let us know... I'm guessing that day will be a great buy signal in the market!
3) I know you think I'm an idiot, but

3a) I've been trading aggressively on the short side since 1/21 so... doing ok so far.

4)Now seriously, let's look at something your 6th grade math skills are probably not sufficient for. Did they cover compound returns and growth rates in 6th grade? how about basic percentages?

5)For a guy like you , losses are a big deal.

6) You have said that any loss less than 100% is meaningless.

7) With all due respect, I would say you, sir, are an idiot.
If you have a significant drawdown, the percent return you need to make to get back to breakeven is very high...

8) high enough that you are basically out of the game with a 50% drawdown. At least, in the long run as you keep saying.

9)Just something to think about as you come up on that 30% threshold.
10)They're not magical trading skills, but they are real.

1)Things are going just fine.

2)As I've told you before , I'm not here to let you ride my coattails
no matter how much you beg and cajole me to let you do so. I know you need the help but no means NO.

3) No talon, as of now since I have not heard you pontificate on economics/politics I don't think you are an idiot, but I do think it's a definite possibility.
Actually it's quite clear to me that you're pomp-ass, insecure trader
who gets his dander up by my success and approach to the markets. I get it, it's hilarious keep it up.

3a) Of course you have. We've all learned you're always good for anecdotal claims without substantiation. Nothing new there.

4) My sixth grade math skills cover all those issues quite nicely, I'm sorry yours didn't.
I suspect it peeves you to no end that it requires no more than that to be successful in the market and financially literate.

5) Sounds like a simple case of projection bias to me. As an investor
unrealized losses don't share the same characteristics as realized losses do for a trader.

6) I've repeatedly tried to tell you that the specific value at any point
along the (temporal) path, on the equity curve is
meaningless save the last value (which represents my goal).
That you repeatedly fail to grasp this concept, makes you look myopically oriented.

7) Well if you consider me an "idiot" , it's going to smart even more to be bested by one. Unless you get exceptionally lucky my out-performance of your returns is simply a foregone conclusion and we both know it.

8) I see you are projecting your weaknesses again.

9) How bout, I let you do the worrying for me.

10) yeah right , keep telling yourself that.

 

[Pekelo]

This thread entertains me to no end.

Quote from Index piker:

I'd say we have vastly different ideas on what constitutes "SILLY".

And you are in the minority. 95% of people would agree that being long and hoping for a 40% down is SILLY. The other 5% are in the asylum...

One definition of "silly" to me would be trusting your life savings to some blackbox market timing method offered for FREE on the internet.

The other definition of silly would be being long only in a bear market. By the way what do you have against backtesting? First backtest something before you criticize it.
Also, you seem to think that only highly priced goods/services can have value, which is silly itself. Alright, then I will charge you for my advice a shitload, if that makes me more trusty....

here's a hint: There is no such thing as the holy grail of trading.

If by holy grail you mean a profitably trading/investing method, then you obviously haven't found it.


2) No, I would not be wiped out.

Let's check the math: If you are leveraged long by 2.5 times then a 40% dip would take you to the cleaners. End of story...

1)Things are going just fine.

Because being down -18% (with your life savings, your word) is usually peachy...