Take the Index Piker Challenge

Piker, I give you a free advice that could easily be worth 50K for you:

1. Go to metastocktools.com and look for the Dow chart.

2. Once a day preferably before the open check it and buy if there is a blue arrow and sell when there is a red one.Most of the time there is no signal so you just stay in the position previously taken.

3. There will be only 15 or so trades a year and your effort is about 2 mins per day for checking and occasionally acting on the signal.

At the end of the year you can send me a thank you check. :)

P.S.: The bottomline is, you don't need to time the market, you just have to find one who can...
 
piker,

once again... i have clarified this point several times for you... i do not manage anyone else's money. all my trading capital is my own... and it started with an amount less than $50K. Today I support a small trading operation in lower Manhattan. All my money, all my trading returns, and I have trained several people successfully. So, yeah trading is a skill and it can be learned. You couldn't learn... fine... and no surprise frankly judging from the insight you have shown in your posts... but don't assume because you're incapable it can't be done.

And yes Piker, I had a bad day. You obviously haven't spoken with many traders... it's pretty common for a trader to say they're a complete idiot... just the way traders tend to talk about themselves. I didn't actually lose that much money that day, but I left a lot on the table because I was being a little inflexible. And, yeah, I guess my magical trading skills kicked in once we broke support because the market behaved very well from that point on... very predictable.

I have no doubt about who's percentage returns will be greater. When I said a loss like yours was unacceptable I was speaking as a professional trader who has to make their living on their winnings. You're a hobbyist and that's fine, but don't expect to win the game.

We'll talk when the S&P is around 1,000 and see how you're feeling there... good day moron.


Quote from Index piker:

I guess I would be more sanguine about posting losses if I were attributing my results to my possessing "magical trading skills".





Unacceptable to whom? , you and your needs?

You forget that I have the advantage of not being a slave to short-term results. I'm not saddled with the burden of managing OPM or needing to obsess about quarterly reports.

My returns when I conclude the experiment will speak for themselves.




There you go again assuming I don't understand the math or the products behavior.

Luckily for me , my 6th grade math skills will suffice. :D






That's great, if the borrowing costs and liquidity are available.



I have my strategy and you have yours, in the end WE BOTH KNOW who's returns will be greater percentage wise.



Oh yeah sure , nimble market timers are well known and written about extensively by Mark Hulbert.



Really?: so the problems quoted by you below were before you became the GREAT SEER OF MARKET DIRECTION?

Funny indeed, struggling one week and "the maestro of timing" 2 weeks later .:D
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Quote from talontrading:

piker,

1)once again... i have clarified this point several times for you... i do not manage anyone else's money. all my trading capital is my own... and it started with an amount less than $50K. Today I support a small trading operation in lower Manhattan. All my money, all my trading returns, and I have trained several people successfully. 2)So, yeah trading is a skill and it can be learned. You couldn't learn... fine... and no surprise frankly judging from the insight you have shown in your posts... but don't assume because you're incapable it can't be done.

And yes Piker, I had a bad day. You obviously haven't spoken with many traders... it's pretty common for a trader to say they're a complete idiot... just the way traders tend to talk about themselves. I didn't actually lose that much money that day, but I left a lot on the table because I was being a little inflexible. And, yeah, I guess my magical trading skills kicked in once we broke support because the market behaved very well from that point on... very predictable.

3)I have no doubt about who's percentage returns will be greater. 4)When I said a loss like yours was unacceptable I was speaking as a professional trader who has to make their living on their winnings. 5) You're a hobbyist and that's fine, but don't expect to win the game.

6)We'll talk when the S&P is around 1,000 ...
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1) Seems you misinterpreted my posting about not needing to focus on the short term, into ascribing characteristics about you. My focus is on the long term, drawdowns <100% are irrelevant.

PS: I really don't know what to think of someone who has soo much personal wealth from trading that they need help managing it. I understand it, if you got rich by entertaining or inventing something.
I mean let me get this straight, you need to hire and train traders to help you manage your own portfolio?

2) I've never said trading couldn't be done (remember the blind monkeys) nor did I say I could not trade.
I'm just telling you that this portfolio will outperform all but the luckiest of traders and will do so with greater certainty than my trading would.

3) We both know my returns will outperform your previously mentioned arb of leveraged etf's.

4)Fine then, you as a professional trader are admitting to being more focused on a shorter time frame than myself. Odd how you take umbrage when I mention it.

5) Fine , you can call me a mere hobbyist if that makes you fweel better about yourself.
I'm sorry I don't know what you mean by "winning the game".
What game is it we are playing?

6) Went out and got you a new crystal ball eh? :D
 
Quote from Pekelo:

Piker, I give you a free advice that could easily be worth 50K for you:

1. Go to metastocktools.com and look for the Dow chart.

2. Once a day preferably before the open check it and buy if there is a blue arrow and sell when there is a red one.Most of the time there is no signal so you just stay in the position previously taken.

3. There will be only 15 or so trades a year and your effort is about 2 mins per day for checking and occasionally acting on the signal.

At the end of the year you can send me a thank you check. :)

P.S.: The bottomline is, you don't need to time the market, you just have to find one who can...
More...



I hope you were just kidding. :eek:
 
Quote from Index piker:

I hope you were just kidding. :eek:
More...

Sure.

Had you been short in the last 2 weeks according to the signals, right now you would be up 10% instead of down -16%.....

Let's check back at the end of the year and see how you did and how you would have done with the signals....
 
Quote from Pekelo:

Sure.

Had you been short in the last 2 weeks according to the signals, right now you would be up 10% instead of down -16%.....

Let's check back at the end of the year and see how you did and how you would have done with the signals....
More...

:D :D :D :D :D ahem okay

So you propose following this system of signals on the dow will outperform my portfolio longterm.

Fine , it will be your responsibility of calling the market entries and exits .

Good luck you're gonna need it.
 
Hi Piker,

Just thought I'd drop you a little note and see how that levered long portfolio is doing. Also, when you get really excited and flip levered short, please let us know... I'm guessing that day will be a great buy signal in the market! I know you think I'm an idiot, but I've been trading aggressively on the short side since 1/21 so... doing ok so far. :)

Now seriously, let's look at something your 6th grade math skills are probably not sufficient for. Did they cover compound returns and growth rates in 6th grade? how about basic percentages?

For a guy like you , losses are a big deal. You have said that any loss less than 100% is meaningless. With all due respect, I would say you, sir, are an idiot. If you have a significant drawdown, the percent return you need to make to get back to breakeven is very high... high enough that you are basically out of the game with a 50% drawdown. At least, in the long run as you keep saying.

Just something to think about as you come up on that 30% threshold...

These are the best trading markets we've had in a year. Exciting times for those of us who have learned to trade piker. They're not magical trading skills, but they are real. :)

Quote from Index piker:

Luckily for me , my 6th grade math skills will suffice. :D
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Quote from Index piker:

Today was interesting, I thoroughly enjoyed it.
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Because your equity took a 7-8% dip? Since you leveraged long 2.5+ times...

Now I apologize for not remembering but do you ever go to cash? If so, those little red arrows would warn you when it is not that good to be long, assuming you actually care...

Let's say the market closes the year down -15%. That would mean that you end the year down -40%, basicly giving back the 90% accumulated over the previous year. Is that the correct math?
 
Quote from Pekelo:

1)Because your equity took a 7-8% dip? Since you leveraged long 2.5+ times...

2) Now I apologize for not remembering but do you ever go to cash? If so, those little red arrows would warn you when it is not that good to be long, assuming you actually care...

3) Let's say the market closes the year down -15%. That would mean that you end the year down -40%, basicly giving back the 90% accumulated over the previous year. Is that the correct math?
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1) Yesterday was good because nothing would suit me better (as a long term investor) than a return to march 2009 lows with cash reserves to invest.

2) I would go to cash if I thought the market was at market bubble highs. (pretty rare). No way am I going to take signals from some internet timing system.
*Previously I have stated that I would not go short, I would consider it if I had gone to cash significantly too early. I don't anticipate it but i would consider it under the right circumstances.

3) perhaps
 
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