Not fair , I said a blindfolded monkey could beat my portfolio.
Of course that makes all those who claim they have "skill" look a little foolish.
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Not fair , I said a blindfolded monkey could beat my portfolio.
Of course that makes all those who claim they have "skill" look a little foolish.
1/8/10 opening value 941,512
1/15/10 closing value 881,901
loss of( 6.76%) for the week.
12/31/09 : 888,972
1/15/10 closing value 881,901
year to date loss (.8%)
Everything is doing just fine ,only posted the IRA image because posting 2 images is kind of a pain.
1/15/10 closing value 881,901
loss of( 6.76%) for the week.
12/31/09 : 888,972
1/15/10 closing value 881,901
year to date loss (.8%)
Everything is doing just fine ,only posted the IRA image because posting 2 images is kind of a pain.
Where is the weekly Piker update? Very interested in seeing those lines on your chart that look like about twice the S&P's move... 
ira
1/16/10 opening balance 881,901
1/29/10 closing balance 737,807
2week loss of 16.3%
12/31/09 : 888,972
1/29/10 ytd loss 17%
Sorry about not posting last week . I had a computer glitch where my screen resolution would not allow me to capture my account images properly.
I'm down somewhere around 22-23% from my high, which is to be expected.
My strategy basically is buy at no brainer lows and sell at no brainer highs.
The upside only reached 25% of historical highs and to reach near all time lows would require another 50% drop in the underlying.
I'm okay and prepared for either scenario.
I tend to disagree with you slightly.
It's not required that the performance of the account hold up "very well in a market sell off".
It merely has to perform as expected and be accompanied by a contingency plan.
You must remember that since this is my retirement money(in the capital accumulation stage) , the only value that is meaningful is the ending value.
Interim values along the way (losses below 100%) are irrelevant.
Of course if I were pretending to be a trader, I would claim to have the ability to sell before every drawdown and buy the subsequent low.
The insanity of the above dooms most traders.
However unlike some of my EMH index investing friends , I contend one can grossly identify bear and bubble market extremes and act rationally
One hint is when the politicians tell you to buy, you should consider reducing your risk.
When they are reassuring the voters that the economy and financial system is sound it's too late to sell and probably time to back up the truck and buy as much as you can.
I contend that index investors can gain a small advantage from recognizing the one salient feature of our 21st century market, which is for various reasons is subject to periodic booms and busts.
Invest accordingly.
piker,
while i applaud your honesty in sharing your results, i hope you realize this performance is unacceptable... a 15% portfolio loss at the end of the first month of the year... ouch. and this is exactly the kind of environment your levered products are going to cost you more in... if you don't understand the math, figure it out soon. (as a hint, if you lost 10% you have to make more or less than 10% to get back to breakeven? once you've answered that question consider the implications of a trading vehicle that only replicates the one day performance of the underlying. then extrapolate.)
one of the trades we run here is basically a risk free arb to pick up the vol decay in these levered etf's. it takes a lot of money and the returns aren't huge, but they are basically risk free... and you're on the wrong side of that trade as a long term holder of these. = chump.
you would do well to consider that maybe there actually are some people who can time the market... and maybe those people don't make it a priority to post here on ET... fwiw, we traded aggressively on the short side since 1/21 and have done ok... it really is possible to time the market piker and it ain't actually that hard.
fyi... the market is going to bounce sometime soon and we will be shorting into that bounce. do what you will... we'll talk sometime later.
this is the best trading environment i have seen in a year... very exciting times. be careful
while i applaud your honesty in sharing your results, i hope you realize this performance is unacceptable... a 15% portfolio loss at the end of the first month of the year... ouch. and this is exactly the kind of environment your levered products are going to cost you more in... if you don't understand the math, figure it out soon. (as a hint, if you lost 10% you have to make more or less than 10% to get back to breakeven? once you've answered that question consider the implications of a trading vehicle that only replicates the one day performance of the underlying. then extrapolate.)
one of the trades we run here is basically a risk free arb to pick up the vol decay in these levered etf's. it takes a lot of money and the returns aren't huge, but they are basically risk free... and you're on the wrong side of that trade as a long term holder of these. = chump.
you would do well to consider that maybe there actually are some people who can time the market... and maybe those people don't make it a priority to post here on ET... fwiw, we traded aggressively on the short side since 1/21 and have done ok... it really is possible to time the market piker and it ain't actually that hard.
fyi... the market is going to bounce sometime soon and we will be shorting into that bounce. do what you will... we'll talk sometime later.
this is the best trading environment i have seen in a year... very exciting times. be careful
Quote from Index piker:
1/16/10 opening balance 881,901
1/29/10 closing balance 737,807
2week loss of 16.3%
12/31/09 : 888,972
1/29/10 ytd loss 17%
Sorry about not posting last week . I had a computer glitch where my screen resolution would not allow me to capture my account images properly.
I'm down somewhere around 22-23% from my high, which is to be expected.
My strategy basically is buy at no brainer lows and sell at no brainer highs.
The upside only reached 25% of historical highs and to reach near all time lows would require another 50% drop in the underlying.
I'm okay and prepared for either scenario.
I guess I would be more sanguine about posting losses if I were attributing my results to my possessing "magical trading skills".
Unacceptable to whom? , you and your needs?
You forget that I have the advantage of not being a slave to short-term results. I'm not saddled with the burden of managing OPM or needing to obsess about quarterly reports.
My returns when I conclude the experiment will speak for themselves.
There you go again assuming I don't understand the math or the products behavior.
Luckily for me , my 6th grade math skills will suffice.
That's great, if the borrowing costs and liquidity are available.
I have my strategy and you have yours, in the end WE BOTH KNOW who's returns will be greater percentage wise.
Oh yeah sure , nimble market timers are well known and written about extensively by Mark Hulbert.
Really?: so the problems quoted by you below were before you became the GREAT SEER OF MARKET DIRECTION?
Funny indeed, struggling one week and "the maestro of timing" 2 weeks later .