Take the Index Piker Challenge

[PiggyBank]

Nice Job.

I think all that Talon is saying is your gains are being/were made in an anomaly (historically). This type of move is not "common", and while it isn't over yet, it is highly likely that it will not last...
So while you may continue to make gains doing what your doing you will likely not have the same success,% wise, in the future.

Also, I don't understand what this "magic' that you keep refering to is. I know and have seen with my own eyes highly successful traders, they all have a method or several (as do u), and trade according to it, no magic. Most traders use strategies based on math, market knowledge, and/or logic based on how the market itself operates.

I guess the point I am trying to make is that day traders I know that have been making good money for 10 years (give or take), did poorly in '09 on avg, relative to their past performance. You did well, but is this evidence that trading can't beat you, or that it was simply a bad year for traders (day traders especially), and that in years when they do well your method will not work as well?

 

[Index piker]

Quote from PiggyBank:

Nice Job.

1)I think all that Talon is saying is your gains are being/were made in an anomaly (historically). This type of move is not "common", and while it isn't over yet, it is highly likely that it will not last...
2)So while you may continue to make gains doing what your doing you will likely not have the same success,% wise, in the future.

3)Also, I don't understand what this "magic' that you keep refering to is. I know and have seen with my own eyes highly successful traders, they all have a method or several (as do u), and trade according to it, no magic. Most traders use strategies based on math, market knowledge, and/or logic based on how the market itself operates.

I guess the point I am trying to make is that day traders I know that have been making good money for 10 years (give or take), did poorly in '09 on avg, relative to their past performance. 4)You did well, but is this evidence that trading can't beat you, or that it was simply a bad year for traders (day traders especially), and that in years when they do well your method will not work as well?

1) talon is just a smug jealous blowhard who thinks he knows something that I do not.


2) Nowhere have I made claims to repeat this years performance on a consistent basis. I do however think 20% /year is quite possible for myself using this method.


3) The magic I keep referring to is that mythical attribute called "skill" by traders and active managers. Few demonstrate that conclusively.
For most traders and investors, I think it's just a story of risk & luck.


4)Lets be honest here concerning the ability of traders to outperform me during the same time period.

Certainly it's possible:a blindfolded monkey could beat my portfolio provided enough of them were given trading stakes .

The question is"which one can be chosen in advance?"

 

[talontrading]

I am not smug. I am certainly not jealous of you piker. I certainly do know something you do not.

I know you... exactly the type you are. You are a failed trader who has given up and who is now sure that no one can trade. At the same time, you continue to hope that someone out there is real... this thread was probably somewhat of a desperate attempt to make contact with someone "real"... and you have done so. Add to your bruised ego from your failure as a trader that you picked exactly the right time and environment to buy leveraged ETFs and now you're a genius. Congrats.

However, your success will not endure because you are not being honest with yourself. You're not a passive investor. It's a joke that you think you are. You are trading, just levered instruments and infrequently. Your day will come... remember our conversations here.

And, for the record, I did not do 100% on my combined equity this year so maybe you beat me. Of course, my combined capital is a little bit bigger than yours, (and it all came from trading profits btw). However, I did make well over 100% on several of my trading systems, including my discretionary daytrading... and I have done this for several years running... so yeah Piker, I probably know a few things you don't. In addition, I have a trainee who was trading actively for less than a year... she beat your performance both nominal and percentage basis. Based on my past performance, I'm pretty sure next year will be a good year too knock on wood.

Who's the arrogant piker blowhard? That would be you.

Quote from Index piker:

1) talon is just a smug jealous blowhard who thinks he knows something that I do not.

3) The magic I keep referring to is that mythical attribute called "skill" by traders and active managers. Few demonstrate that conclusively.
For most traders and investors, I think it's just a story of risk & luck.


4)Lets be honest here concerning the ability of traders to outperform me during the same time period.

Certainly it's possible:a blindfolded monkey could beat my portfolio provided enough of them were given trading stakes .

The question is"which one can be chosen in advance?"

 

[Jesus]

Quote from Index piker:

The common misconception that leveraged instruments are not suitable for holding long term is preposterous and my returns will prove it.

Expect to see me back here in 2-5 years to quote you on this. I'll give you one last warning that leveraged etfs are not suitable for long term holding due to the mathematics of how they track their underlying index. If you want to know how bad an investment these are, just google them and read a few articles on them. Its got nothing to do with what the experts say, its simple mathematics.

Just one last question and I'll be out of you hair for a few years, which leveraged etfs specifically did you buy and at what price, and how long do you plan on holding these?

 

[Jesus]

Quote from Jesus:

Expect to see me back here in 2-5 years to quote you on this. I'll give you one last warning that leveraged etfs are not suitable for long term holding due to the mathematics of how they track their underlying index. If you want to know how bad an investment these are, just google them and read a few articles on them. Its got nothing to do with what the experts say, its simple mathematics.

Just one last question and I'll be out of you hair for a few years, which leveraged etfs specifically did you buy and at what price, and how long do you plan on holding these?

 

[TraderZones]

Quote from Index piker:

The common misconception that leveraged instruments are not suitable for holding long term is preposterous and my returns will prove it.

The common misconception is actually the above paragraph.

One person's self-testified logs do not really prove anything.

Returns without metrics do not prove anything. What is the Sharpe, drawdown, profit factor, etc.?

What is the return as compared to the underlying index?

This journal started Nov. 7. The only thing that has been proven, is nothing...

Now, if all the problems above are addressed.

 

[Index piker]

Quote from TraderZones:

The common misconception is actually the above paragraph.

One person's self-testified logs do not really prove anything.

1)Returns without metrics do not prove anything. What is the Sharpe, drawdown, profit factor, etc.?

What is the return as compared to the underlying index?

2)This journal started Nov. 7. The only thing that has been proven, is nothing...

Now, if all the problems above are addressed.

This is my retirement portfolio.

1)As a rational investor only 1 metric is important,and that is {it's end value must meet or exceed my goals}.

The particular path it takes (except for a 100% loss) is wholly unimportant.

2) Well perhaps I won't "prove" anything to you. However I will demonstrate by chronicling a real time portfolio that the aforementioned common misconception about leveraged funds is not true in all cases.

 

[Index piker]

Quote from Jesus:

1)Expect to see me back here in 2-5 years to quote you on this.2) I'll give you one last warning that leveraged etfs are not suitable for long term holding due to the mathematics of how they track their underlying index. If you want to know how bad an investment these are, just google them and read a few articles on them. Its got nothing to do with what the experts say, its simple mathematics.

Just one last question and I'll be out of you hair for a few years, which(3) leveraged etfs specifically did you buy and at what(4) price, and (5)how long do you plan on holding these?

1) Fine I will ever so anxiously await you to screw up the courage to post your returns alongside mine.

2) Obviously you think I'm unaware of the literature on these funds, I'm not.
Like I've posted before "this isn't your grannies index portfolio".

3) As I have said before to prevent coat-tailing of my portfolio I won't be disclosing that information.

4) Ditto

5) I don't know, my crystal ball is a little murky on future prices. I'll leave that to traders who think the latest newfangled software can predict prices for them.

 

[PiggyBank]

Quote from Index piker:

1) talon is just a smug jealous blowhard who thinks he knows something that I do not.


2) Nowhere have I made claims to repeat this years performance on a consistent basis. I do however think 20% /year is quite possible for myself using this method.


3) The magic I keep referring to is that mythical attribute called "skill" by traders and active managers. Few demonstrate that conclusively.
For most traders and investors, I think it's just a story of risk & luck.


4)Lets be honest here concerning the ability of traders to outperform me during the same time period.

Certainly it's possible:a blindfolded monkey could beat my portfolio provided enough of them were given trading stakes .

The question is"which one can be chosen in advance?"

1) I don't think that Talon is smug or jealous of you. Personally, I have seen no reason to doubt him because I mostly agree with what he posts.

2) 20%/year is admirable for an investor, but traders will beat you. Listen I think that you are assuming that real traders don't exist, so either you think we are all lying, or think that 1 year proves something, but both assumptions are incorrect. I can assure u (for what it is worth) that I am not lying. As I have previously stated I know indivdual traders that have been making 6 or 7 figures for 6-12 years. It is harder to judge their % gain, because I don't know what their avg buying power was, but if it wasn't better (% wise) than the market why would the firm/clearing house even bother providing all this BP when they could just buy/short leveraged etf's?

3) While I agree that chance and risk (tolerance) do play a significant role in a trader's career (especially early on), skill is a definite factor. There is nothing mythical about creating or tweaking an existing strategy, developing a plan, and executing it. You have to be able to adjust with the market, there is skill/intuition in adjusting, before the numbers confirm what u are thinking. You also have to learn to swing, what looks right, what looks wrong, what is "normal", and what isn't. You could show someone exactly what u are doing (something that works) and they could sit right next to you and not replicate what you are doing. What is missing for them to replicate you...skill/ability/familiarity etc.

4) I was being honest with you, I would take anyone I know with a 5 year track record over you. Nothing personal, just their 5 years to your 1 year during a market anomaly, and holding leveraged ETF's long term when they decline over time (because of chop not time), which is a mathematical certainty. This is not to say that they would take part in an online bet, I'm just being hypothetical.

 

[Index piker]

Quote from PiggyBank:

1) I don't think that Talon is smug or jealous of you. Personally, I have seen no reason to doubt him because I mostly agree with what he posts.

2) 20%/year is admirable for an investor, but traders will beat you.

3a) While I agree that chance and risk (tolerance) do play a significant role in a trader's career (especially early on), skill is a definite factor. There is nothing mythical about creating or tweaking an existing strategy, developing a plan, and executing it. You have to be able to adjust with the market, there is skill/intuition in adjusting, before the numbers confirm what u are thinking. You also have to learn to swing, what looks right, what looks wrong, what is "normal", and what isn't. 3b) You could show someone exactly what u are doing (something that works) and they could sit right next to you and not replicate what you are doing. What is missing for them to replicate you...skill/ability/familiarity etc.

1) I simply told you my opinion of him from the nature of his posts you are free to disagree.
a) He thinks he knows more about my strategy than I do.

b) He likes to play pop armchair psychotherapist diagnosing my personality and motives etc.

c) He repeatedly claims to have or had outperformed me whilst offering exactly bupkis as supporting evidence. Fine with me if you are legitimately outperforming my portfolio but without a shred of evidence it's just pathetic.

d) It really seems to disturb him that I'm doing well.


2) Sorry but on aggregate, traders will not outperform the market much less my portfolio. As far as individual traders go: the longer the time frame the lower their probability of keeping up.


3a) Yes of course, the ubiquitous confident skilled traders here accepting my challenge and posting their results is singularly overwhelming.

3b) If you cannot teach it and it's not quantifiable, chances are it's not a skill.