Tails You Lose, Heads I Win

[PAPA ROACH]

http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/pdf/mwo050908.pdf


....."Assume you have 10,000 people who flip a coin once a year. After five years, you will
have 313 people who have come up with heads five times in a row. If you put suits on them
and sit them in glass offices, call them a mutual or a hedge fund, they will be managing a
billion dollars. They will absolutely believe they have figured out the secret to investing that
all the other losers haven’t discerned. Their 7 figure salaries prove it.
The next year, 157 of them will blow up. With my power of analysis, I can predict
which one will blow up. It will be the one in which you invest!".......

 

[maxpi]

I use a simulator that will overlay 100 equity curves. I love to input 50% wins and 1:1 win/loss size and watch it come up with a few stellar accounts and a whole lot of mediocre-to-blown-out accounts...... I run that everytime I listen to an expert

 

[EdgeHunter]

Quote from PAPA ROACH:

http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/pdf/mwo050908.pdf


....."Assume you have 10,000 people who flip a coin once a year. After five years, you will
have 313 people who have come up with heads five times in a row. If you put suits on them
and sit them in glass offices, call them a mutual or a hedge fund, they will be managing a
billion dollars. They will absolutely believe they have figured out the secret to investing that
all the other losers haven’t discerned. Their 7 figure salaries prove it.
The next year, 157 of them will blow up. With my power of analysis, I can predict
which one will blow up. It will be the one in which you invest!".......

What's interesting about this is that these managers would probably have, at this point, a very cocky over confident attitude...

Is there a way to fade THEIR long and short picks... in a diversified way across the board...