Imo, securities all move in a technical way until there is a fundamental factor comes into play then the securities move according to how the fundamental factor dictates until its effects wear off and then technical patterns take over again until the next fundamental factor. So overall, yeah I would say technical analysis reigns supreme the majority of the time but it's the fundamental factors that cause the bigger waves like the black swan events so fundamental analysis is equally important that one needs to pay attention as well. A stock can be in a bull trend confirmed by all the technical analysis but a sudden departure of a major customer or a major change in government regulation that directly impacts the company's business can reverse the bull trend and all of the gains from riding the previous bull trend can be all gone and worse turn into losses faster than Thanos' snap.
TA vs FA
- Thread starter KGTrader4
- Start date
Imo, securities all move in a technical way until there is a fundamental factor comes into play then the securities move according to how the fundamental factor dictates until its effects wear off and then technical patterns take over again until the next fundamental factor. So overall, yeah I would say technical analysis reigns supreme the majority of the time but it's the fundamental factors that cause the bigger waves like the black swan events so fundamental analysis is equally important that one needs to pay attention as well. A stock can be in a bull trend confirmed by all the technical analysis but a sudden departure of a major customer or a major change in government regulation that directly impacts the company's business can reverse the bull trend and all of the gains from riding the previous bull trend can be all gone and worse turn into losses faster than Thanos' snap.
I trade stocks long only and for me, I use certain fundamentals as a check to the companies 'safety / risk', ie do I feel the business is legitimate and secure.
So I look at who the directors are, I look at which nationalities they are, this may appear to be racially biased but for me it is. I look at their qualifications ie zero degrees or are accountants running an engineering business, I'm interested to know which countries they operate in (sovereign risk). I'm also interested in how much debt they have relative to income, and there are a number of other checks I do.
Now I'll still sometimes trade a very high risk company, but I'll be trading with a keener eye on exiting quicker on pullbacks.
I like @themickey 's summary in another Thread: a move will start on Fundamentals then the Technicals draw the masses and sustain the move further.
There are numerous ways/tricks of using FA.
Here's one I don't use, but it works...
When a company pays out a dividend, stock price will dive approx the same amount of div.
Now the cunning little trick is, watch how fast price recovers.
A fast recovery is bullish of the Co. and vice versa.
Here's one I don't use, but it works...
When a company pays out a dividend, stock price will dive approx the same amount of div.
Now the cunning little trick is, watch how fast price recovers.
A fast recovery is bullish of the Co. and vice versa.
I look at the 13F-HR report that hedge funds file to SEC quarterly, most charts show such pattern. This led me to think that charts can be produced by them instead of the market.
Good start. However, data is lagging and are not helpful for multi managers. Can be useful for single managers though.
Fundamental tells me what to buy, technical tells me when to buy.
Yeah not quite right, technicals also tell you what to buy.
Thinking along another way, very frequently the worst fundamental stocks make very good trading stocks.
The known fundamentals are already priced in, so in a way you're studying the fundamentals when you study a chart. One of the best aspects of TA is that sometimes stocks move wildly for an unknown reason, but at least you can see the price changes taking place and gain insight from them and potentially formulate a trade idea from it. The reason/s will come clear later, but prices will always lead the fundamentals in a scenario like this.