TA - Self-fulfilling prophesy?

Perhaps they fear to be attacked for diffamation by a coalition of system sellers so they use these terms :D

Quote from OddTrader:





It's most interesting (especially when mentioning statistical speaking) to note a few keywords above including "impossible", "virtually", "most" and "likely"!
:D :confused:
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Quote from harrytrader:

Perhaps they fear to be attacked for diffamation by a coalition of system sellers so they use these terms :D
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Probably! :confused:

But you don't! :D
 
In fact CFTC has attacked well known trader's web site like Robert Miner and Frank Taucher and CFTC has lost : this prove that there is still some justice against Big Government. In fact cftc wanted even forbid any posting of buy and sell on forums (this would mean no more trading journals on elite for example :D) see link below (happily they have lost in justice court):

http://www.irfutures.com/amend.htm

Net Publishers Score Victory
Wired News Report

7:35 a.m. 22.Jun.99.PDT
In a case closely watched by Web site operators, a federal judge has struck down as unconstitutional rules that require anyone who wants to publish opinions on commodity futures to ask for a government license.

District Court Judge Ricardo Urbina said Monday in Washington, DC that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's registration requirement "constitutes an attempt to regulate speech, not a profession."

The Institute for Justice -- a nonprofit group staffed by free-market litigators -- sued the CFTC in 1997, claiming that requiring a person to register as a "commodity trading advisor" -- even if the person does not manage funds or offer personal advice -- violates the First Amendment's prohibition on government licensing of the press. Plaintiffs in the suit include Internet publishers, authors, and subscribers.

In a press release, the Institute for Justice said Urbina's decision "sets an early and important precedent ... extending First Amendment protection to software development and the Internet, areas of law where the jurisprudence is only now being established."

http://free.ij.org/Buttonsections_folder/Whatsdone.html
On July 30, 1997, the Institute for Justice, a non-profit, public interest law firm, filed a First Amendment lawsuit in federal court challenging the CFTC's assault on newsletter publishers, software developers, and those who use the Internet. When successful, the Institute's lawsuit will end government-compelled registration of those who either through traditional publications, software, or over the Internet, offer information, analysis, and impersonal advice about the futures market.

http://free.ij.org/Doc_folder/cftc_complaint.html
FRANK TAUCHER
5212 E. 69th Place
Tulsa, Oklahoma 74136

ROBERT MINER
6336 N. Oracle
Suite 326-346
Tucson, Arizona 85704

and others

Quote from harrytrader:

Perhaps they fear to be attacked for diffamation by a coalition of system sellers so they use these terms :D
More...
 
On the origin of patterns according to legendary Richard Wyckoff ... and you know what my model could be viewed as a QUANTIFICATION of what he calls "the 'composite operator' theory, which stated that large pools work to manipulate the price of stocks, leaving definite footprints behind on the chart in patterns of accumulation and distribution"


https://www.lbrgroup.com/index.asp?..._Futures_patter

'Starting with a pattern' February 1999 - excerpt

Richard Wyckoff was a trader and market analyst who was active in the market
around the turn of the 20th century, about the same time as Charles Dow was
writing for the Wall Street Journal. As a trader who was curious about the
market, he arrived at a methodology that concentrated on price and volume
analysis, point and figure charting, and a comparison between related
markets and indexes. He wrote several books about the market, including the
famous 'Rollo Tape,' a book about the subject of tape reading written under
an assumed name. His writings were later compiled into a comprehensive
stock market training course, which is still offered today. Wyckoff
postulated the 'composite operator' theory, which stated that large pools
work to manipulate the price of stocks, leaving definite footprints behind
on the chart in patterns of accumulation and distribution. Wyckoff also
believed in the theory of 'cause and effect' whereby the market would build
up of supply or demand within a trading range.
 
In that case, TA is not just Self-fulfilling prophesy.

Quote from harrytrader:

On the origin of patterns according to legendary Richard Wyckoff ... and you know what my model could be viewed as a QUANTIFICATION of what he calls "the 'composite operator' theory, which stated that large pools work to manipulate the price of stocks, leaving definite footprints behind on the chart in patterns of accumulation and distribution"


https://www.lbrgroup.com/index.asp?..._Futures_patter

'Starting with a pattern' February 1999 - excerpt

Richard Wyckoff was a trader and market analyst who was active in the market
around the turn of the 20th century, about the same time as Charles Dow was
writing for the Wall Street Journal. As a trader who was curious about the
market, he arrived at a methodology that concentrated on price and volume
analysis, point and figure charting, and a comparison between related
markets and indexes. He wrote several books about the market, including the
famous 'Rollo Tape,' a book about the subject of tape reading written under
an assumed name. His writings were later compiled into a comprehensive
stock market training course, which is still offered today. Wyckoff
postulated the 'composite operator' theory, which stated that large pools
work to manipulate the price of stocks, leaving definite footprints behind
on the chart in patterns of accumulation and distribution. Wyckoff also
believed in the theory of 'cause and effect' whereby the market would build
up of supply or demand within a trading range.
More...
 
Is self-fulfilling a kind of feedback loop? :confused:

The Janus Factor: http://www.equitypm.com/TheJanusFactor.htm

Q

Feedback Loops

Feedback is commonplace. Businesses routinely solicit feedback from customers, and that information is returned to the marketplace in the form of improved products and services. The best companies seek feedback continuously, and in the process convert information into long-term success. To a large extent such feedback determines winners and losers and, more generally, helps move the economy forward. In a free-market society feedback is pervasive, so it should come as no surprise that feedback is at work in the equities market as well.

There are two sorts of feedback--positive and negative.

UQ
 
Many scientists have quantified such hypothesis - using agents modelling - once again when one stays with fuzzy concept it is often seducive but when it is quantified it isn't any more or not so much. Quantification of such hypothesis will encounter the El Farol problem (see http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=342257&highlight=farol#post342257): the crowd cannot accord because there are too many possible strategies (expression used in the article is "ecology of diverse strategies") so the crowd alone cannot explain the real behavior of the market. Feedback loop exists for sure, but it cannot tell the cause that's why such kind of model are just qualitative because quantitatively they can't predict real market, they only simulate fictitious market.

Quote from OddTrader:

Is self-fulfilling a kind of feedback loop? :confused:

The Janus Factor: http://www.equitypm.com/TheJanusFactor.htm

Q

Feedback Loops

Feedback is commonplace. Businesses routinely solicit feedback from customers, and that information is returned to the marketplace in the form of improved products and services. The best companies seek feedback continuously, and in the process convert information into long-term success. To a large extent such feedback determines winners and losers and, more generally, helps move the economy forward. In a free-market society feedback is pervasive, so it should come as no surprise that feedback is at work in the equities market as well.

There are two sorts of feedback--positive and negative.

UQ
More...
 
Quote from harrytrader:

Many scientists have quantified such hypothesis - using agents modelling - once again when one stays with fuzzy concept it is often seducive but when it is quantified it isn't any more or not so much. Quantification of such hypothesis will encounter the El Farol problem (see http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=342257&highlight=farol#post342257): the crowd cannot accord because there are too many possible strategies (expression used in the article is "ecology of diverse strategies") so the crowd alone cannot explain the real behavior of the market. Feedback loop exists for sure, but it cannot tell the cause that's why such kind of model are just qualitative because quantitatively they can't predict real market, they only simulate fictitious market.
More...

Fuzzy concept? Or Fuzzy logic? :confused:

Yes, very fuzzy indeed! :D

:p
 
Quote from harrytrader:

On the origin of patterns according to legendary Richard Wyckoff ... and you know what my model could be viewed as a QUANTIFICATION of what he calls "the 'composite operator' theory, which stated that large pools work to manipulate the price of stocks, leaving definite footprints behind on the chart in patterns of accumulation and distribution"


https://www.lbrgroup.com/index.asp?..._Futures_patter

'Starting with a pattern' February 1999 - excerpt

Richard Wyckoff was a trader and market analyst who was active in the market
around the turn of the 20th century, about the same time as Charles Dow was
writing for the Wall Street Journal. As a trader who was curious about the
market, he arrived at a methodology that concentrated on price and volume
analysis, point and figure charting, and a comparison between related
markets and indexes. He wrote several books about the market, including the
famous 'Rollo Tape,' a book about the subject of tape reading written under
an assumed name. His writings were later compiled into a comprehensive
stock market training course, which is still offered today. Wyckoff
postulated the 'composite operator' theory, which stated that large pools
work to manipulate the price of stocks, leaving definite footprints behind
on the chart in patterns of accumulation and distribution. Wyckoff also
believed in the theory of 'cause and effect' whereby the market would build
up of supply or demand within a trading range.
More...

=====

Good points;
except instead of '' large pools manipulite'' i would use words work skillfully.:cool:
 
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