TA - Self-fulfilling prophesy?

Quote from ChartingMarkets:


Have a statistical edge. You have to be the house when it comes to "gambling" in the stock market or any market. My edge is not from complex TA...or fast computer programs. Its from being a good tape reader that can feel the market pulse. I use charts because they are visual representations of accumulation or distribution that I can then gather even more information from as to the strength of my bet. The other secret is that great traders take small losses by being disciplined enough to only take trades that require a small movement in the other direction of the trade to tell the trader he is wrong. Finally a great trader never bets his account on one great trade he has the skills to and discipline to, "eat the elephant bit by bit" over many trades thus never allowing the market to destroy him with one statistical anomaly.

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This simply is a form of the Holy Grail we seek! :p

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=21167&highlight=douglas
 
Quote from OddTrader:



This simply is a form of the Holy Grail we seek! :p
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To me this nonsensical talk about the Holy Grail of trading implies a mythical system that never loses. People who are only willing to trade or believe that you can only make money in the stock market by being right all the time should take a rain check out of this profession right away. The best traders embrace the concept of "PROBABILITY" and know over a long series of independent events/trades that they will have accumulated a larger amount of money to show for their statistical edge. The best traders know how to take losses and not fear it or ever regret it. Holy Grail...keep looking because a statical edge is not enough for these people, because those who seek the Holy Grail seek something much more, that does not exist.
 
Quote from ChartingMarkets:



Hey Harry Long time since we spoke. I would define simple as the fact that I can trade off of a line chart with just volume on it and have a statistical edge that will "skim" money to my account over the long run. TA, Quant, understanding market Psych, etc etc etc is all summed up the same way by saying:

Have a statistical edge. You have to be the house when it comes to "gambling" in the stock market or any market. My edge is not from complex TA...or fast computer programs. Its from being a good tape reader that can feel the market pulse. I use charts because they are visual representations of accumulation or distribution that I can then gather even more information from as to the strength of my bet. The other secret is that great traders take small losses by being disciplined enough to only take trades that require a small movement in the other direction of the trade to tell the trader he is wrong. Finally a great trader never bets his account on one great trade he has the skills to and discipline to, "eat the elephant bit by bit" over many trades thus never allowing the market to destroy him with one statistical anomaly.

My statistical edge is a combo, once again of what I wrote above. I have learned over the years where the inflection points of the stocks that I am trading are. Where and when the stocks will get buyers or sellers and abnormal volume/movement will appear after quiet days. If I'm wrong I know how to get out fast with a small loss. Over time I skim they like a mo for. Now if you want to sit down with me and build a computer model that can mirror what I do, I would be happy to have u do it. I wouldn't mind going to the movies all day and coming home and seeing what my Pent 4 made for me each day. Until that time I will have to keep the controls.
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lol, lets do it! is your system mechanical or does it involve intuition?
 
Quote from ChartingMarkets:

... that never loses.
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Thanks for your sharing, CM.

Consistency and high probabilbity would be more than enough to me (never expecting never any loses!)! :cool:
 
Quote from OddTrader:




http://www.geocities.com/ecocorner/intelarea/greycell.html

Many Soros' articles are here, including "A Failed Philosopher Tries Again".

Take your time :) !
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Friedman!! Hayek!!! Buckley?

Thanks. Have added it to favorites and will definitely need a little time; but I'll wade through it all eventually. Terrific site!

Sorry I don't have an equivalent reciprocal offering just now, but if I find one I'll notify you.
 
Quote from OddTrader:



This simply is a form of the Holy Grail we seek! :p

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=21167&highlight=douglas
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According to Douglas (Trading in the zone),

Q

"You have two choices:

You can try to eliminate risk by learning about as many market variables as possible. (I call this the black hole of analysis, because it is the path of ultimate frustration.)

Or you can learn how to redefine your trading activities in such a way that you truly accept the risk, and you're no longer afraid."

UQ

:confused: :mad:
 
Holy Grail ? it depends on the definition: Holy Grail means impossible and according to CFTC it's impossible to have any statistical edge with TA and so any one who affirms that would be considered as having found the Holy Grail :D

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=379217&highlight=holy+grail#post379217

"Technical analysts . . . first make a deterministic (one might say
spiritual) leap of faith that non-random price patterns exist. They
then illogically posit that these patterns, once revealed to the few
(or indeed -- through marketing -- to the many), may be successfully
exploited in trading. To accomplish this, of course, the 'pattern'
must remain undetected by others (otherwise the increased market
activity defeats the 'pattern' by driving the price to a point where
speculation is no longer profitable). See Marshall (1989) at
263-264. Public policy presumes that markets are not so witless.
'The presumption is [] supported by common sense and probability [as]
recent empirical studies have tended to confirm Congress' premise that
the market price of shares traded on well-developed markets reflects
all publicly available information . . . ' Basic, 485 U.S. at 246."
(note 75, page 41)"

"[A]ny marketer's claim of increased profitability or reduced risk
through the use of these systems is likely to be fraudulent". (note
75, page 41)

Quote from ChartingMarkets:



To me this nonsensical talk about the Holy Grail of trading implies a mythical system that never loses. People who are only willing to trade or believe that you can only make money in the stock market by being right all the time should take a rain check out of this profession right away. The best traders embrace the concept of "PROBABILITY" and know over a long series of independent events/trades that they will have accumulated a larger amount of money to show for their statistical edge. The best traders know how to take losses and not fear it or ever regret it. Holy Grail...keep looking because a statical edge is not enough for these people, because those who seek the Holy Grail seek something much more, that does not exist.
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Quote from harrytrader:

... and according to CFTC it's impossible to have any statistical edge with TA and so any one who affirms that would be considered as having found the Holy Grail :D
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Quote from harrytrader:



"[R]espected scholars are virtually
unified in their recognition that even the most legitimate technical
systems (with their hypothetical and retroactive foundations) are
incapable of providing the trader with any significant market
advantage." (note 75, p 41)

"[A]ny marketer's claim of increased profitability or reduced risk
through the use of these systems is likely to be fraudulent". (note
75, page 41)
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It's most interesting (especially when mentioning statistical speaking) to note a few keywords above including "impossible", "virtually", "most" and "likely"!
:D :confused:
 
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