TA - Self-fulfilling prophesy?
- Thread starter rodden
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Quote from harrytrader:
There are many traders that still continue to use just pivots you know. What do you mean by "complex" TA BTW ?
......demonstrate the validity & rationality behind traditional TA which is too often attributed to irrationality of crowd whereas the crowd's behavior is not the origin of TA but only an effect..
.... a system IN GENERAL is not obliged to follow any law : random law => LAW but sometimes there is not even a LAW at all including random - statistically speaking there is no probability universe - whatever its functional form bell curve or not - associated with such system; now it is well known that stock market follows in fact a power law which is more tailed than a normal law).
Let me ponder this post and get back to you, Harry - I have too many distractions to deal with at the moment to allow me to fully appreciate your thoughts.
Quote from OddTrader:
Not sure these links for RSP are relevant:
http://www.rwfinancial.com/mutualfunds.html
Q
Ten RSP Investments Mistakes to Avoid
UQ
http://www.a-z-free-investment-data.com/stocktrend.shtml
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Interesting Stock Trends
Stock trends can be useful, when considering to by or sell. Terms such as summer rally, recession, recession and more. Every action has a reaction. Comparable to leaves falling off the trees in the fall due to the cold.
UQ
What I'm attempting to consider is the extent to which "reflexivity" affects the action-reaction relationship.
Thanks for the Soros' material. Still trying to get time to study it thoroughly. Soros' has had a lifelong interest in Philosophy. He describes himself as a "failed philosopher" . He's an excellent thinker.
YOU GUYS ARE THINKING WAY TOO MUCH, I GUESS THE MORE MONEY U TRADE THE MORE COMPLEX IT NEEDS TO BE??? A GUY TOLD ME LAST YEAR TO KEEP IT SIMPLE AND WATCH HOW A STOCK REACTS TO SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE. IN THAT IF I SEE A GOOD PATTERN I GET IN. SOMETIMES I EVEN MAKE MONEY! THIS FIBONACCI THING IS WAY TOO DEEP FOR ME. I WISH I COULD UNDERSTAND IT. MAYBE I WILL IN THE FUTURE. I LIKE READING THE INTERESTING POSTS. GOOD LUCK TO US ALL
http://www.geocities.com/ecocorner/intelarea/greycell.html
Many Soros' articles are here, including "A Failed Philosopher Tries Again".
Take your time
!And how to define SIMPLY (that is to say PRECISELY) such a "GOOD PATTERN" . Let's say that triangle is simple pattern, ok, but TRADING triangle is not so simple because of breakout failure just for example. So SIMPLE is only apparent when one disguises it under FUZZYNESS OF TERM, but when one must PRECISE what it REALLY MEANS (OPERATIONALLY FOR EXECUTION OF THE REAL TRADE) effective COMPLEXITY APPEARS. If it was so SIMPLE it would be TOTALLY MECHANISABLE.
. Let's say that triangle is simple pattern, ok, but TRADING triangle is not so simple because of breakout failure just for example. So SIMPLE is only apparent when one disguises it under FUZZYNESS OF TERM, but when one must PRECISE what it REALLY MEANS (OPERATIONALLY FOR EXECUTION OF THE REAL TRADE) effective COMPLEXITY APPEARS. If it was so SIMPLE it would be TOTALLY MECHANISABLE.TA has never worked for me. I have been trading for 8 years now (Day trading that is). I remember when I hit my first funk, I read all kinds of TA books and tried all kinds of new trading ideas. I ended up staying in that funk for an extra year because I wasn't a good TA trader. I believe patience is a virtue when it comes to using TA.
I came to the realization that as "Day Trader" stocks move up and down everday. And that all kinds of levels are meant to broken. Who could of used TA back in May and said that CTX or Len would be trading over $100 a share?
Like I said , I was never a good TA trader and to those who use and are successul I envy you.
I came to the realization that as "Day Trader" stocks move up and down everday. And that all kinds of levels are meant to broken. Who could of used TA back in May and said that CTX or Len would be trading over $100 a share?
Like I said , I was never a good TA trader and to those who use and are successul I envy you.
Quote from harrytrader:
And how to define SIMPLY (that is to say PRECISELY) such a "GOOD PATTERN"
Hey Harry Long time since we spoke. I would define simple as the fact that I can trade off of a line chart with just volume on it and have a statistical edge that will "skim" money to my account over the long run. TA, Quant, understanding market Psych, etc etc etc is all summed up the same way by saying:
Have a statistical edge. You have to be the house when it comes to "gambling" in the stock market or any market. My edge is not from complex TA...or fast computer programs. Its from being a good tape reader that can feel the market pulse. I use charts because they are visual representations of accumulation or distribution that I can then gather even more information from as to the strength of my bet. The other secret is that great traders take small losses by being disciplined enough to only take trades that require a small movement in the other direction of the trade to tell the trader he is wrong. Finally a great trader never bets his account on one great trade he has the skills to and discipline to, "eat the elephant bit by bit" over many trades thus never allowing the market to destroy him with one statistical anomaly.
My statistical edge is a combo, once again of what I wrote above. I have learned over the years where the inflection points of the stocks that I am trading are. Where and when the stocks will get buyers or sellers and abnormal volume/movement will appear after quiet days. If I'm wrong I know how to get out fast with a small loss. Over time I skim they like a mo for. Now if you want to sit down with me and build a computer model that can mirror what I do, I would be happy to have u do it. I wouldn't mind going to the movies all day and coming home and seeing what my Pent 4 made for me each day. Until that time I will have to keep the controls.