TA - Objective or Psychological Skill?

Quote from marketsurfer:

Ok, thanks. This is where we disagree--- clearly your entries sometimes give you nice moves in your direction, other times they do not. In fact according to your experiment, your entries are not even profitable 60% or so of the time--- so how is the entry providing higher odds of the move, let alone its magnitude? Sounds like your entries based on TA are actually negative to your expected returns.
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Very simple: again it's just odds. Do we ever enter a trade which unlikely has the potential worth the risk? Of course we don't. Do we have a guaranteed profit on each or most of trades? No we don't.

But if our statistical information says entry A taken on maximum risk B provides move of magnitude C with probability D and it all results in a positive expectancy then we've got an edge.

See my point? Probability of move of at least C also matters and it's different from probability of the same move in case of random entry.
 
Quote from sheda:

So, how do you know when to enter and how many trades per day? Its a random entry, my entrys are governed by whats unfolding infront of me, they are a response to what I see there for the number of trades per day is governed by the way I see the market. Do you just decide, perhaps to make ten trades a day, maybe on a time table or perhaps just now feels like a good time to enter?:D
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I beleive that the results would be similar whether you wait to enter for a particular pattern, enter long every 10 minutes, short when venus is in transit, or at low and high tide in NYC---- as long as you properly manage your exit, you should earn $$. surf
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

I beleive that the results would be similar whether you wait to enter for a particular pattern, enter long every 10 minutes, short when venus is in transit, or at low and high tide in NYC---- as long as you properly manage your exit, you should earn $$. surf
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YOU WOULD get slaughtered.
 
Quote from sheda:

YOU WOULD get slaughtered.
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I might. Trade management isn't my strong point-- for sure!

What about someone with impecible money management skills or better yet a computer? You don't think there is enough variation is the daily moves to profit? Because if a 40% win rate can profit, I would think any win rate could as long as the winners run and the losses cut short.

In fact, you could make 50 trades-- have 49 tiny losses and the 50th trade be a massive winner and still be profitable. TA is nothing but a mental crutch for those who cant' handle the truth about random perception.

surf
 
Quote from cornix:

Very simple: again it's just odds. Do we ever enter a trade which unlikely has the potential worth the risk? Of course we don't. Do we have a guaranteed profit on each or most of trades? No we don't.

But if our statistical information says entry A taken on maximum risk B provides move of magnitude C with probability D and it all results in a positive expectancy then we've got an edge.

See my point? Probability of move of at least C also matters and it's different from probability of the same move in case of random entry.
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Don't you see those are just sound good/feel good words? There is no science or actual testing behind them.

surf
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

I might. Trade management isn't my strong point-- for sure!

What about someone with impecible money management skills or better yet a computer? You don't think there is enough variation is the daily moves to profit? Because if a 40% win rate can profit, I would think any win rate could as long as the winners run and the losses cut short.

In fact, you could make 50 trades-- have 49 tiny losses and the 50th trade be a massive winner and still be profitable. TA is nothing but a mental crutch for those who cant' handle the truth about random perception.

surf
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If it's so easy why haven't you made a fortune trading with prudent money management only yet?
 
Quote from cornix:

If it's so easy why haven't you made a fortune trading with prudent money management only yet?
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Trade management certainly isn't my strong point. I never said it was easy.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

I might. Trade management isn't my strong point-- for sure!

What about someone with impecible money management skills or better yet a computer? You don't think there is enough variation is the daily moves to profit? Because if a 40% win rate can profit, I would think any win rate could as long as the winners run and the losses cut short.

In fact, you could make 50 trades-- have 49 tiny losses and the 50th trade be a massive winner and still be profitable. TA is nothing but a mental crutch for those who cant' handle the truth about random perception.

surf
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40% win rate can profit because each trade has an entry and exit context, you enter and exit at random, in the above situation you assume 49 entrys are wrong yet somehow a random exit can capture a significant move?

The new HFT technology| Random Box ~ Endorsed by Knight Capital ~ Bringing bankcrupty to an account near you! :lol:

You try to hard Mr Surf.
 
Quote from sheda:

40% win rate can profit because each trade has an entry and exit context, you enter and exit at random, in the above situation you assume 49 entrys are wrong yet somehow a random exit can capture a significant move?

The new HFT technology| Random Box ~ Endorsed by Knight Capital ~ Bringing bankcrupty to an account near you! :lol:

You try to hard Mr Surf.
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No, exits are not random. Only entries. Exits are based on price.
 
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