TA - Objective or Psychological Skill?
- Thread starter cornix
- Start date
I did in my thread "Intuition Amplifiers2" I even gave the exact algorithms and gauges to measure things like "Trader's Perception", Market Sentiment", Buying and Selling anxieties levels" etc. I used many types of the data streams that include, but not limited to: accumulation of Bid/Ask Prices over different book levels, Bid/Ask sizes behaviors, frequency of certain words and expressions in the headlines, Number of cancel/replace orders per unit of time and many more. It dwarfs TA and makes it look like an armatureâs game.
Very perceptive, WRB. Yes, correct for myself anyway. While patterns certainly seem to repeat, they do not repeat in any statistically consistently exploitable way. If they did, they couldn't exist as those who search for such repetition would pour money into the pattern forcing the market to morph so that it no longer exists. There are super computers searching for such repeatable patterns on a minute by minute basis, so to hear manual day traders say they have been profiting from the the same pattern for years and years smacks of delusion or deliberate vendor hype as this is what they teach, etc. ---- --
Maestro is correct-- you need to find out what moves price, not price itself is the key to the markets. I call these things Price Drivers. surf
gld will close green today currently down 1.04. This is a prediction and the problem with most of these types of calls/statements is that they don't really mean anything. Further, if someone has a trading contest and the market is random, doesn't that mean that trader x is a better random pick em trader than y? That is why I don't understand Surf, if markets are random are not all entries random? It makes no difference and really is the monkey throwing darts issue, carry on.
As a point of clarification, what is your win/loss ratio on the TA proof thread.
surf
Quote from kinggyppo:
gld will close green today currently down 1.04. This is a prediction and the problem with most of these types of calls/statements is that they don't really mean anything. Further, if someone has a trading contest and the market is random, doesn't that mean that trader x is a better random pick em trader than y? That is why I don't understand Surf, if markets are random are not all entries random? It makes no difference and really is the monkey throwing darts issue, carry on.
There are so many inputs driving price that markets are random to our perception, if they were not, they couldn't exist. Repeating patterns do exist, but never exist for long, as they get exploited out of existence. This is common sense to me--- I don't understand why the TA folks don't see it. Even my Price Drivers can only say it appears that the market will be pushed this way or pulled that way-- they are far from 100% accurate
surf
No, most of the things he lists happen prior to price being formed. TA is the study of past price, not activitities leading up to price. surf
PS-- per your listed definition:
"In finance, technical analysis is a security analysis methodology for forecasting the direction of prices through the study of past market data