TA - Objective or Psychological Skill?

[dom993]

CL always-in, 1 contract per entry-signal, no cap on total number of contracts traded.

Objective TA, in-sample backtesting.

 

[Cote Rotie]

Quote from marketsurfer:

I agree, however--- the song remains the same-- and we will only see this

on elite trader, Ol'yella.

Same goes for price drivers. ET is the only place I've ever heard of them

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Cote Rotie:

Same goes for price drivers. ET is the only place I've ever heard of them

Yeah. That's because I invented them. Are you riding this down wave predicted last month? PDs rule!

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3822825#post3822825

 

[R. Raskolnikov]

Happy that this one is working out for you! But remember, keep a cool head. So far so good

Quote from marketsurfer:

Yeah. That's because I invented them. Are you riding this down wave predicted last month? PDs rule!

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3822825#post3822825

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from R. Raskolnikov:



No idea about the eatery but there are so many great restaurants with excellent service here in NYC, I would think that only the largest douche bags would need a place that catered to them even more

Speaking of fine dining, I have reservations next week at Eleven Madison. Looking fwd to it...

Lots of big egos in the city of dreams..... enjoy 11madison!

surf

 

[Lucrum]

Quote from marketsurfer:

.... Take breakouts for instance, we tested 100's of thousands of breakout trades and the outcome was overall negative...

You gonna let that stop you. The idea is to make more than you lose, not be right all the time.

 

[cornix]

Quote from marketsurfer:

Corn,

I think I figured out why you believe in TA as a viable method--- Your personal sample size is so small and it skewed positive, so based on your own experience, TA works. Take breakouts for instance, we tested 100's of thousands of breakout trades and the outcome was overall negative----- but they seem to work for you. This is why I think soon you will hit a large negative streak/ so be careful! this may be why we have different opinions---- i look at the overall performance on the largest data sets available and you base your opinion on personal experience. surf

As RR already asked: what exactly breakouts did you test? On what time-frames, breakouts of what exact kinds of levels, what parameters of risk management et cetera?

It all makes a lot of sense, trading is a game of tiny edges, so there are no "minor" nuances.

P. S. My sample size is 1000's of trades, I think it's enough overall.

 

[cornix]

Quote from Ol' Yella:

Agreed, many things thought impossible in the past have been proven very possible.

Perhaps one day someone will succeed in achieving the kind of consistent results that are told of in daytrading folklore. I would love to see someone do it!

Probably those people already exist, they are just not interested in making their performance public and I fully understand them. If I traded illiquid market like CL, why would I want to share my edge with people who tomorrow will compete with me?

 

[cornix]

Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

I can't speak for anyone else, but for me aligning two time frames together generates a much better signal that one frame alone. The faster frame's signal MUST activate the slower frame, based on very objective rules, and then a trade is taken.

Don't know why this is the case but it's been working for many years now. I can't explain the "why", only that it works within the confines of my methods rules. Again, I'm only speaking about my particular concoction. Please don't go opening any two time frames and trying to make something happen.

Exactly. You need friends to drive the price. Market is overall fractal, but not every fractal offers a move of a range which justifies paying commission etc.

So generally we want to time those points on small TFs, which trigger longer-term plays.

 

[jack hershey]

Quote from cornix:

Exactly. You need friends to drive the price. Market is overall fractal, but not every fractal offers a move of a range which justifies paying commission etc.

So generally we want to time those points on small TFs, which trigger longer-term plays.

An above average discussion is ensuing. thanks for starting the thread and, further, explaining your viewpoint and perspective.

I wish those who generalize would cite the back up references.

For me Aronson used the simplistic rsulte of Masters. Later he qualified it as referenced here. But he was still striving to predict.

As RR points out and others ask, the basis of MS's BO analysis is on the same level as Aronson's simplisitc setting and generalization. Lucrum's 2B suggestion to remedy Aronson's and MS's is great and is further backed up by the multi TF advantage for deeper observations.

Today began with what turns out to be a long term play (many 5 min bars in a Set D drifting trend) that was triggered by a small TF event. I went short on the open as carry over dictaed But I had to reverse on the close of bar 1. I am still long at this point, having gone through 10 small TF events that "kept me in continue". A persistent lateral now obbliges me to go sub frctal to loook for sub events.

as most people have suggested, market theory moves forward. It seems to me that processing vaste amounts of data in simplisitc ways is lik the expressions of how apples perform in barrels. Barrels do not house apples any more.

Computing powere brings more and more sensitivity to the consideration of significant things. I believe, more and more, the appropriate math will be used to deal with opportunities. Lucrum's @b is a fine example of the Set A and Set B types of incomplete trends. this am is another example of the Set D type of drift trend. All three types are deviations form the "normal" Set C type trend.

Back to annotating and logging.

you comment above, I find to be quite exacting and to cause and effect.