TA - Objective or Psychological Skill?

Quote from dom993:

From Wikipedia:

"In finance, technical analysis is a security analysis methodology for forecasting the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume."

I am a fully automated trader, and all of my trading systems are using technical analysis (per that definition) for their trading decisions.

I certainly believe that top discretionary traders using technical analysis (per that definition) can do better than automated strategies (not in the # of trades, of course, but in overall profitability & consistency) - however, becoming a top discretionary trader is as easy as getting selected by your country for the Olympic Games.

This thread would become more interesting if we started to discuss HOW the study of past market data can allow for profitable forecasting of the direction of prices.
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My people get stuck where you and Wiki reside.

Your and Wiki's Philospohy of History (Danto, columbia)is unfortunate.

How to study the market system of operation would be more fruitful. As you progress, you find out what has to be done to modify the definition to make it correct. As it stands now it is the conventional misconception.
 
Quote from jack hershey:

here is my chart for the day.

I carve the "c" turns.

I annotate and log every bar.
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The forming bar on that chart is "loked in".

Further it has an event name (PP2)

I look at my "table of 8 panels to find, under Set A, if the pair (PP6 to PP2 is there to precipitate the ned of my short hold and reverse to a long hold. The pair is not there.

So, in the present and untl further notice I hold short while I log and annotate.
 
Quote from cornix:

What makes you think there are some strictly defined boundaries of what's possible?
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I think boundaries are there, not strictly defined but still there. For example, a human can train as a runner but there are still boundaries to how fast he can run. No person will run as fast as a cheetah.
 
Quote from Ol' Yella:

I think boundaries are there, not strictly defined but still there. For example, a human can train as a runner but there are still boundaries to how fast he can run. No person will run as fast as a cheetah.
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Ha, interesting example you chose. Because people for a long time didn't believe it's possible to run a mile faster than certain speed (4 minutes if I remember right), let alone driving 250km/h or going to space. :)
 
Quote from cornix:

Ha, interesting example you chose. Because people for a long time didn't believe it's possible to run a mile faster than certain speed (4 minutes if I remember right), let alone driving 250km/h or going to space. :)
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Corn,

I think I figured out why you believe in TA as a viable method--- Your personal sample size is so small and it skewed positive, so based on your own experience, TA works. Take breakouts for instance, we tested 100's of thousands of breakout trades and the outcome was overall negative----- but they seem to work for you. This is why I think soon you will hit a large negative streak/ so be careful! this may be why we have different opinions---- i look at the overall performance on the largest data sets available and you base your opinion on personal experience. surf
 
On what time frame? Across how many set's of multiple time frames? Did you include any other indicators overlapped with breakout signals?

My guess is you tested something very very simple and have drawn large conclusions based off of that.


Quote from marketsurfer:

Corn,

Take breakouts for instance, we tested 100's of thousands of breakout trades and the outcome was overall negative----- surf
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Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

On what time frame? Across how many set's of multiple time frames? Did you include any other indicators overlapped with breakout signals?

My guess is you tested something very very simple and have drawn large conclusions based off of that.
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Yes, it was very simple break out strategy. However, if the market is fractal like TA folks believe, why would timeframes or other indicators make a difference?

surf
 
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