TA education

[MoveTimer]

'There are many who claim so, with little evidence. In reality, it is believed that most trader use TA and most traders lose their money. There is likely an interesting correlation here.'

Coorelation does not mean causal relationship as you of course know. Traders can think that they use TA but really trade by fancy, without discipline, without proper MM (too risky), etc... There are too many reasons for failure.

'One more question, just logical quiz. Can you prove that TA did not work?
This was the subject of earlier threads and this was dialogued to death. A study is posted, and TAphiles do all sorts of opinion dances or insults, without offering effective counter proof'

Any profitable trading strategy which does not use fundamental data is counter proof. Agree?

 

[Steve Tvardek]

I did not say TA does not work. I meant that you can greatly improve the probability of your trades working out by understanding the underlying price action of a given technical setup.

Ever wonder why some "cup and handle" formations work beautifully and others fail? Looks like a coin flip right....well, its no coincidence. The ones that work show price action that will eventually lead to it working and vice versa. Its up to the trader to understand and read the particular situation correctly. If I can indentify a chart setup, a certain classical pattern or even a pattern that just you have seen over and over again (not one mentioned it "books"), this can put you in a place to anticipate what will come next.

RCan, I have made a bundle of money trading off TA (and the corresponding PA) and I know of at least 2 others personally that have as well. Forget all the studies you read about, if you do the work you will be able to see it for yourself.

Quote from rcanfiel:

IF PA works and TA does not, then trying to combine them does not add a multiplicative value...

 

[Lamont_C]

Quote from cortez27:

I have an uncle who is interested in learning about technical analysis and I am supposed to forward to him a list of good content websites as well as some training videos. It's been a while since I learned TA, so what sites are considered to have good content to learn from or videos to follow along with?

I am also suggesting a few good TA books: so far I have:
Bruce Kamich : How TA Works
any other high reco books?

If you're interested in price action, take a look at dbphoenix' book: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showpost.php?p=313957

LC

 

[ProfLogic]

rcanfiel,

There isn’t any need to a condescending patronizing attitude toward posters. Learner2007 has a right to his opinion just as you do. Just as in real life there are many different opinions out there and many different methodologies. Just because TA hasn’t worked for you is no reason to belittle others.

You are young and most definitely haven’t personally tested all forms of TA in order to be considered an expert on the field. Typical TA offers limited consistency to trading but there are newer inroads being made daily.

I will agree with you that combining methodologies doesn’t add any multiplied value. Anytime you add inconsistency to inconsistency you will further increase the inconsistency. That is a simple law of numbers.

50% accuracy plus 50% accuracy = 25% accuracy

But remember that (Technically) viewing Price Action and (Analyzing) the results will give you an entirely different set of parameters and facts than any stand alone typical TA readily accepted today. This is the point that people are trying to get you to see that you aren’t open to.

The goal is to find the consistencies in Price Action to lay the groundwork for consistent profitability. Once one figures out that there actually is consistent movement embedded in Price Action then the process begins building confidence in trading it.

There is proof that some TA works but you have to prove it to yourself. Anyone telling you it works, including me, just like you saying it doesn’t work are both futile and worthless statements. Unless you are open to applying specific and unfamiliar forms of TA, making a blanket statement that it is ALL worthless is wreak less.

Traders, across the board, loose money because of many situations; one of those is inconsistency of trading environments using inconsistent TA. Traders loose money due to lack of patience. Traders loose money because of poor money management. Traders loose money because of lack of information. I could go on but I think you get the point. Traders have way more going against them than they have going for them. Traders are akin to a salmon swimming upstream in a bear filled woods.

I’m amazed each day I sit in front of the screen to trade. I sit here with an open mind ready to profit from price’s consistencies but also open to the new things I learn from that consistency.

The day your mind closes to the potential of innovation and discovery is the day your brain begins to shrivel up and die.

 

[MoveTimer]

Quote from ProfLogic:

rcanfiel,

There isn’t any need to a condescending patronizing attitude toward posters. Learner2007 has a right to his opinion just as you do. Just as in real life there are many different opinions out there and many different methodologies. Just because TA hasn’t worked for you is no reason to belittle others.

You are young and most definitely haven’t personally tested all forms of TA in order to be considered an expert on the field. Typical TA offers limited consistency to trading but there are newer inroads being made daily.

I will agree with you that combining methodologies doesn’t add any multiplied value. Anytime you add inconsistency to inconsistency you will further increase the inconsistency. That is a simple law of numbers.

50% accuracy plus 50% accuracy = 25% accuracy

But remember that (Technically) viewing Price Action and (Analyzing) the results will give you an entirely different set of parameters and facts than any stand alone typical TA readily accepted today. This is the point that people are trying to get you to see that you aren’t open to.

The goal is to find the consistencies in Price Action to lay the groundwork for consistent profitability. Once one figures out that there actually is consistent movement embedded in Price Action then the process begins building confidence in trading it.

There is proof that some TA works but you have to prove it to yourself. Anyone telling you it works, including me, just like you saying it doesn’t work are both futile and worthless statements. Unless you are open to applying specific and unfamiliar forms of TA, making a blanket statement that it is ALL worthless is wreak less.

Traders, across the board, loose money because of many situations; one of those is inconsistency of trading environments using inconsistent TA. Traders loose money due to lack of patience. Traders loose money because of poor money management. Traders loose money because of lack of information. I could go on but I think you get the point. Traders have way more going against them than they have going for them. Traders are akin to a salmon swimming upstream in a bear filled woods.

I’m amazed each day I sit in front of the screen to trade. I sit here with an open mind ready to profit from price’s consistencies but also open to the new things I learn from that consistency.

The day your mind closes to the potential of innovation and discovery is the day your brain begins to shrivel up and die.

yes, agree 100%

hey, rcanfiel, listen to smart guy aka ProfLogic! It's much more useful than discuss whether something work/do not work.

 

[learner2007]

Quote from ProfLogic:

>rcanfiel
There isn’t any need to a condescending patronizing attitude toward posters.
[/B]

>ProfLogic

When I posted my message here I failed to recall the name
rcanfiel. For ages he has popped up on various message
boards just calling people names, using vulgar language,
and, from what many see, is just looking for attention.

I mistakenly wasted my time.

learner

 

[TheDarkness]

Rcanfiel is just a crybaby who wants to rip on TA and everything else under the sun for whatever reason. I am not saying he's a failed trader, because I have no idea about the guy's personal life...

But I am just wondering why the venom towards TA, Rcanfiel?

Seriously?

I believe that if someone makes money using TA that is enough empirical evidence to support the efficacy of TA. Whether or not anyone else makes money using TA doesn't affect the person who makes money's personal knowledge that TA does work.

Blanket statements rarely, if ever apply to anything in life. I am sure there are people who make money using Astrological Analysis- I don't believe it works, personally...but I would have a hard time convincing someone who makes money using it that it doesn't work.

And I am surely not going to go ripping on anyone and everyone who supports it. Not my business. I will offer an opinion, but I am not going to call anyone stupid or ignorant over something so opinion based.

 

[Cocaine]

Ive made close to 1 million just daytrading (yes, I know this isnt that much but even still, its something) and my approach is entirely technical. I use ZERO fundamentals, everything I do is based on the chart and the way price is moving.

Anyone who says TA is pure crap without doing their own due dilligence is exactly the type of person who wont succeed at trading.

 

[TheDarkness]

Quote from Cocaine:

Ive made close to 1 million just daytrading (yes, I know this isnt that much but even still, its something) and my approach is entirely technical. I use ZERO fundamentals, everything I do is based on the chart and the way price is moving.

Anyone who says TA is pure crap without doing their own due dilligence is exactly the type of person who wont succeed at trading.

you got that right, uncle brother

 

[rcanfiel]

Quote from TheDarkness:

But I am just wondering why the venom towards TA, Rcanfiel?

Pretty much every serious study fails to demonstrate outperformance of TA. Pretty much everything I hear in response is unable to overcome evidence. So opinions, anecdotes and other. No venom, only reality. The ball lies in the court of those who continue to propagate witchcraft.

Blanket statements rarely, if ever apply to anything in life.

On the contrary. Studies are quite consistent in dismissing the value of the TA used by many.

Peter Lynch once commented, "Charts are great for predicting the past."

Warren Buffett has said, "I realized technical analysis didn't work when I turned the charts upside down and didn't get a different answer" and "If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians."

A comprehensive study of the question by Amsterdam economist Gerwin Griffioen concludes that: "for the U.S., Japanese and most Western European stock market indices the recursive out-of-sample forecasting procedure does not show to be profitable, after implementing little transaction costs. Moreover, for sufficiently high transaction costs it is found, by estimating CAPMs, that technical trading shows no statistically significant risk-corrected out-of-sample forecasting power for almost all of the stock market indices."

The list is endless.

The pro-TA arguments are mindless.