T-REX Journal
- Thread starter T-REX
- Start date
- Status
Yes. Thanks for bringing that to my attention. I thought tha I had deleted that from today's report. You will note that I also stated that the system is flat today and will remain on the sidelines.
p.s. regardless of where the market is currently trading that entry point was valid on the previous days FORECAST.
Although today is a "NEUTRAL" day it would not classify as a "Breakout" day by my systems standards even though the mkt is up right now. If I were to entry today @ all (I'm not) I would short @ 1014.25 stop-limit and fade the early rally. It should start to sell off the closer we get to the Fed announcement.
In my opinion this rally is false!!!
..........but hey what do I know I'm usually wrong anyway.
Fade the black!
In my opinion this rally is false!!!
..........but hey what do I know I'm usually wrong anyway.
Fade the black!
Fade the black!
what does this mean?
Michael B.
what does this mean?
Michael B.
Hey ES
a little corney humor on a boreing day.
tongue & cheek!!!!!!
Black = a positive return. when a company is in the black it is said to be profitable.
Fade the Black -......means to fade the trend in this case. dont believe the hype....short the rally......etc.etc.etc.
a little entertainment for a quite trading day.
The problem is NOT to be right or wrong.
The problem is that you have no money management at all.
How do you expect to make money with a stop at least twice your profit target.
It's insane to push people trade that way.
The problem is that you have no money management at all.
How do you expect to make money with a stop at least twice your profit target.
It's insane to push people trade that way.
Great topic.
If you are daytrading then yes you need to have closer stops.
YOU cant determine how much the market will give you on any given day. What YOU have to decide as a trader is how much to you anticipate the market should give you vs. how much you are willing to risk to get too that target.
Its not insane to have wide stops. It is insane to think that by placing close stops that you can increase your chance of winning.
If the ES has an average daily range of lets say 12 pts. and you use a 2 pt stop! what are the chances that a 4pt price swing will take you out???? about 98.9% you will get stopped out!!
Why do you think that most system developers DON'T use stops when they are backtesting? Because it would scew the performance of the system. Why do you think that people want to see Max drawdown & average drawdown????
Because they want to know how much on average they have to risk. This is why the average daytrader CAN'T win over the long term. and the average "TREND FOLLOWER /SWING TRADER" loses a majority of their trades but still manage to outperform the average daytrader.
You CAN'T expect to risk 1pt and make 30pts. IT DOESNT WORK THAT WAY. Trading is ALWAYS unlimited risk / unlimited profit potential when trading Futures (without the use of options that is). Risk is the name of the game. However, if you have a robust system that incorporates short term and long term approaches then you have the holy grail (or as close to it as you will ever come). YOU must change your perspective if you intend to win consistantly over time. And yes you will take some 10 pt hits (or more) especially if your trying to capture a 1/3rd of the weekly or monthly bar.
Alot more could be said but I await your response 1st.
p.s. great comment!
If you are daytrading then yes you need to have closer stops.
agreed
YOU cant determine how much the market will give you on any given day.
agreed
What YOU have to decide as a trader is how much to you anticipate the market should give you vs. how much you are willing to risk to get too that target.
bracketing in a set-up based on MAE and MFE and entering during a probable moment migh fit into the word "anticipate" so ok I agree, but I do not like these words anticipate.....forecast.....as traders trading from price action we should read what the markets "indicate" and what the "probabilities would be with each set-up leading to an eventual entry or exit signal.
Its not insane to have wide stops. It is insane to think that by placing close stops that you can increase your chance of winning.
If the ES has an average daily range of lets say 12 pts. and you use a 2 pt stop! what are the chances that a 4pt price swing will take you out???? about 98.9% you will get stopped out!!
No, you are forecasting from a longer view so your statement is true to you. but an entry based technique on a day trade would be a little more precise. I think we agree here and I am beginning to understand your point of view. but entering in an upside down risk to profit ratio to achieve your goal will require trailing stop exits to grab the points out if you are to improve your "avg win to loss ratio".
Why do you think that most system developers DON'T use stops when they are backtesting? Because it would scew the performance of the system. Why do you think that people want to see Max drawdown & average drawdown????
your point is taken, however the validity of the system would not only be dependant on tinkering with range....it is according to what type of system it is......but you are speaking from your point of view and your system....but your point of view is not the only one.
Because they want to know how much on average they have to risk. This is why the average daytrader CAN'T win over the long term. and the average "TREND FOLLOWER /SWING TRADER" loses a majority of their trades but still manage to outperform the average daytrader.
where did you get this information....? I agree in part but your conclusion is interesting and could be true. I have read that longer time frame traders...not buy and hold.....do better than shorter time frame traders. You have taken it a step further to use the data abut the high percentage of losing traders in general and applied it to swing traders lose too. Which may be accurate. Interesting.....
You CAN'T expect to risk 1pt and make 30pts. IT DOESNT WORK THAT WAY. Trading is ALWAYS unlimited risk / unlimited profit potential when trading Futures (without the use of options that is). Risk is the name of the game. However, if you have a robust system that incorporates short term and long term approaches then you have the holy grail (or as close to it as you will ever come). YOU must change your perspective if you intend to win consistantly over time. And yes you will take some 10 pt hits (or more) especially if your trying to capture a 1/3rd of the weekly or monthly bar.
T-rex.....the way you write this makes sense......but the point that many pro's elude too works....if you only win 30% of the time but have 1:3 ratio....you are more profitable than turning it around. It has been proven, but I cannot back it up.
Alot more could be said but I await your response 1st.
p.s. great comment
agreed
YOU cant determine how much the market will give you on any given day.
agreed
What YOU have to decide as a trader is how much to you anticipate the market should give you vs. how much you are willing to risk to get too that target.
bracketing in a set-up based on MAE and MFE and entering during a probable moment migh fit into the word "anticipate" so ok I agree, but I do not like these words anticipate.....forecast.....as traders trading from price action we should read what the markets "indicate" and what the "probabilities would be with each set-up leading to an eventual entry or exit signal.
Its not insane to have wide stops. It is insane to think that by placing close stops that you can increase your chance of winning.
If the ES has an average daily range of lets say 12 pts. and you use a 2 pt stop! what are the chances that a 4pt price swing will take you out???? about 98.9% you will get stopped out!!
No, you are forecasting from a longer view so your statement is true to you. but an entry based technique on a day trade would be a little more precise. I think we agree here and I am beginning to understand your point of view. but entering in an upside down risk to profit ratio to achieve your goal will require trailing stop exits to grab the points out if you are to improve your "avg win to loss ratio".
Why do you think that most system developers DON'T use stops when they are backtesting? Because it would scew the performance of the system. Why do you think that people want to see Max drawdown & average drawdown????
your point is taken, however the validity of the system would not only be dependant on tinkering with range....it is according to what type of system it is......but you are speaking from your point of view and your system....but your point of view is not the only one.
Because they want to know how much on average they have to risk. This is why the average daytrader CAN'T win over the long term. and the average "TREND FOLLOWER /SWING TRADER" loses a majority of their trades but still manage to outperform the average daytrader.
where did you get this information....? I agree in part but your conclusion is interesting and could be true. I have read that longer time frame traders...not buy and hold.....do better than shorter time frame traders. You have taken it a step further to use the data abut the high percentage of losing traders in general and applied it to swing traders lose too. Which may be accurate. Interesting.....
You CAN'T expect to risk 1pt and make 30pts. IT DOESNT WORK THAT WAY. Trading is ALWAYS unlimited risk / unlimited profit potential when trading Futures (without the use of options that is). Risk is the name of the game. However, if you have a robust system that incorporates short term and long term approaches then you have the holy grail (or as close to it as you will ever come). YOU must change your perspective if you intend to win consistantly over time. And yes you will take some 10 pt hits (or more) especially if your trying to capture a 1/3rd of the weekly or monthly bar.
T-rex.....the way you write this makes sense......but the point that many pro's elude too works....if you only win 30% of the time but have 1:3 ratio....you are more profitable than turning it around. It has been proven, but I cannot back it up.
Alot more could be said but I await your response 1st.
p.s. great comment
- Status