t-notes today

Quote from m_c_a98:

no problem..

With Friday's high being 111-000, there had to have been buy stops just above this level so after the 3pm eastern close on friday when it traded above 111, this immediately became support and you see that after ticking above 111 it quickly touched it to then bid up into the end of the electronic session.

So in hindsight, entering short one tick above the days high may be a good learning experience whether the trade ends up working or not.
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m_c_a98:

Yep. Good point. Lots of trend traders or "turtle" trader whose trend following program would buy "new high" on Friday. But I was betting there would be no follow through(at least the next day) then they would be forced to sell and push prices back.

But if there was follow-through then it should trend even higher. Right now it seems like it gets to 111'08 then back off several times already. Not able to break through it.

But this is a trade I wouldn't definitely recommend doing or repeating for myself even if it worked out. I like low risk trade. This trade the odds were not as low risk.

Hopefully, I can eat turtle soup at least for today. :) And it's backing off to 111'05...


misc
 
Typically Monday's with no economic releases are not very volatile or meaningful sessions. sort of drifts.

This week watch the PPI, CPI, beige book and philly fed.

Remember last months CPI quick early session selloff, marks the current low for this treasury multiweek move. Core CPI was .3 vs. .2 expected and now the expectations are still at .2
 
Quote from m_c_a98:

Typically Monday's with no economic releases are not very volatile or meaningful sessions. sort of drifts.

This week watch the PPI, CPI, beige book and philly fed.

Remember last months CPI quick early session selloff, marks the current low for this treasury multiweek move. Core CPI was .3 vs. .2 expected and now the expectations are still at .2
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Was scary. Finally came back down to 111'025. Which is not too far from my entry 111'01. It went as high as 111'095!

But if it doesn't continue to go down I'll have to bail. Don't want a saved by the bell regain of losses to become a bigger loss later on..

misc
 
I am not trying to break your balls, why didn't you cover @ 111 when they were offered there, if you are so worried?

I still have a short bias, but will re trade on the PPI on a spike in either direction.
 
Quote from Ebo:

I am not trying to break your balls, why didn't you cover @ 111 when they were offered there, if you are so worried?

I still have a short bias, but will re trade on the PPI on a spike in either direction.
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Ebo,

No, don't worry for trying to break my balls. You're right. But I was actually "tied up" with something else during the first time it got down to 111.

But I wasn't as nervous after the 2nd or 3rd time it tried to rally to as high as '095s and failed. I figure I was safe. Because all those people buying new highs will have to sell. And lo behold that's where we are now.

I'm looking at 110'305 now. Yes, I was really scared yesterday when it was that strong. And this morning too. But as soon as it didn't rally anymore I was more confident holding onto it.

The other thing is I wasn't going to risk 8 ticks(technically 16 ticks since 10yrs going in increments of halves) to make 1 tick. But I know, I know that was not the original R/R anyhow.

Yeah, I would have been hella glad to even break even on this trade. But now that it's going in my favor I'll wait and see. Just like MW books say...

But definitely getting out before the close of the day. Given all the jittery in the equity markets, don't want another mad rush to treasuries. But if tomorrow ZN tanks, so be it.

:)

misc
 
Quote from illiquid:

Glad to hear you made it out alive. :)
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illiquid:

Thanks! It was scary! But still 15mins til the close at CBOT. Hopefully some more downside action...

Finally got out at 110'305. 4mins to go. Waited as long as I could. Didn't want it to close on me then couldn't exit. One more minute and I would have gotten 110'30. It's OK.

Whew!

 
Quote from Ebo:

I am not trying to break your balls, why didn't you cover @ 111 when they were offered there, if you are so worried?

I still have a short bias, but will re trade on the PPI on a spike in either direction.
More...

Boy am I glad I got out of that position. It's up to 111'135! I would have been hurt real bad.

Though I did make some money shorting today! But it was for a few quick scalp! Not a holding intrady swing type of trade that would have gotten bulldozed.

what did you do?
 
A Little Better...
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I shorted some at 111'17. It went against me only a tadbit 111'18. Covered after the close at 111'14. 3 full ticks. Not much but at least it was the right R/R ratio. Risking 1 full tick to gain 3 full tick. Much better than the crazy 8-9 full tick risk to barely gain 1.5 ticks.

LOL
 
Today was statistically odd in that it is rare to see the t-notes have a big up day after selling off that much from yesterday's low. I was short after the lower high in the potential R zone ~111 (and took a small loss of course). Apparently, a lot of other traders were too.
 
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