T-day expectancy

[Pekelo]

The T-day theory states that Tuesdays and Thursdays are more likely to be up days then down, thus going long on these days with decent money management should be profitable. Even when they are not a clear up days, there should still be a decent upmove during those days.
T-day theory has been around for a while (it has been statistically proven), on ET it has been promoted by Volente, so a big thanks for him.

Since I am using a slight modification, thus the new research...

In this thread I am going to examine how well it has worked in the last 5-6 months. I am doing the stats manually, judging each day by the chart, not just by the closing price. So if there is a signifficant upmove on a T-day, that would be considered as a positive result. (if you don't like my way of doing it, it is fine, I do it this way anyway,)

So far I have done April:

Tuesdays: 3 up 1 down

Thursdays: 2 up, 3 varied (meaning signifficant movements in both directions)

So based on just one month, the T-day theory is heavily favored...

 

[Vespasian]

Quote from Pekelo:

The T-day theory states that Tuesdays and Thursdays are more likely to be up days then down, thus going long on these days with decent money management should be profitable. Even when they are not a clear up days, there should still be a decent upmove during those days.
T-day theory has been around for a while, on ET it has been promoted by Volente, so a big thanks for him.

In this thread I am going to examine how well it has worked in the last 5-6 months. I am doing the stats manually, judging each day by the chart, not just by the closing price. So if there is a signifficant upmove on a T-day, that would be considered as a positive result. (if you don't like my way of doing it, it is fine, I do it this way anyway,)

So far I have done April:

Tuesdays: 3 up 1 down

Thursdays: 2 up, 3 varied (meaning signifficant movements in both directions)

So based on just one month, the T-day theory is heavily favored...

I had a lot of respect for you till I read this post.

 

[MandelbrotSet]

Quote from Vespasian:





I had a lot of respect for you till I read this post.

I still have a lot of respect for Pekelo's analytical abilities, but the post is a goober for sure.

 

[Pekelo]

Quote from Vespasian:

blah-blah

Note: For a oneliner you don't need to quote the whole original post.

Let's see May:

Tuesdays: 1 up, 1 down, 2 variable

Thursdays: 2 down, 2 up

So May was a wash, a coinflip as the theory goes...

June:

Tuesdays: 1 up, 2 down, 2 variable

Thursdays: 3 up, 1 variable

In June although Tuesdays were a wash, Thursdays favored rallies...

 

[brocklanders]

Quote from Pekelo:

T-day theory has been around for a while (it has been statistically proven),

Please elaborate on this or provide something to back up this statement. Why are you manually going month by month if you say it is already "statistically proven"? I don't think going by hand through a few months is going to make your case but if you have the time for it, more power to you. If you have other statistics please share. Put me in the T-day skeptic column ...

 

[Pekelo]

Quote from brocklanders:

Please elaborate on this or provide something to back it up.

I already explained half of this in the first post.

1. Since I am using a variant of the theory, so I need new research. I am happy when there is a signifficant upmove on these days, the definition of signifficant is at least 8 ES points for me. (I know, arbitrary, but I am working on a strategy here)

2. I really don't care how the market behaved 5-10 years ago, if it doesn't apply anymore. So a 10 years old statistics is although interesting, but could be irrelevant for me today.

Volente already provided the link to the stats on a blog I think in the ES Journal thread, do a search, I am busy with this right now.

The other reason why I go by hand because I have an idea, how to exploit this...

 

[the1]

Trade what happens -- problem solved.

 

[Pekelo]

July with one Thursday still to go:

Tuesdays: 1 down, 3 variable

Thursdays: 2 up, 1 down, 1 variable

Sligthly positive for the theory, tomorrow could make a difference...

March:

Tuesdays: 2 up, 1 down, 2 variable

Thursdays: 2 up, 2 down

 

[opt789]

Since 1950 there were 14987 trading days with 53.2% of them positive.
There were 6060 T days of which 54.2% were positive.

Where is Vol, didn’t he bring this theory up? I thought the point was that there is a good bull run during a T day, not that it has something to do with the net change at the end of the day.

 

[Pekelo]

Quote from opt789:

I thought the point was that there is a good bull run during a T day,

That's what I have been saying, see the opening post:

Quote from Pekelo:

So if there is a signifficant upmove on a T-day, that would be considered as a positive result.