T-bond now in historical high, how much higher can it go?

I've asked myself the same question. Why when I have zero upside potential would I want to risk it for 3%? If we have gotten to where 3% is good then I don't have enough money to play.
 
Quote from oldtime:

I've asked myself the same question. Why when I have zero upside potential would I want to risk it for 3%? If we have gotten to where 3% is good then I don't have enough money to play.
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and I think that's the fed's idea, make it so low that you will buy an apartment building, start a restaurant or at least buy a stock.
 
I know I took a short position using options on TLT late yesterday, it didn't turn out so well. Gonna give it another day to turn around then take my medicine.
 
well right now your options are buy european debt and suck it when they tell you they are only going to give you half your money back, or buy us debt and wait until they tell everyone they are only getting half their money in europe and then buy it after the haircuts.
 
Quote from JJTC:

I know I took a short position using options on TLT late yesterday, it didn't turn out so well. Gonna give it another day to turn around then take my medicine.
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I almost bot a put too. It's just a matter of time, TLT will eventually come back down.

Yep, "When" is the tricky part.
 
Quote from SREC:

Whoever is buying US Government, I just do not understand. It must be a lemming effect. It's practically guaranteed to fail, either due to default or inflation.
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Aren't you looking for funding for some sort of solar trading scheme ? Fixed Income might not be your forte based upon your statement..

Given Solyndra and the rest a compelling case could be argued that solar is a scam " lemming effect" and a ripoff. Same for carbon credits and the rest - guaranteed to fail since China and the US are not going along for the ride apparently.
 
Quote from sle:
"You not a true macro trader if you have not lost money shorting JGBs!"(c) my Ex-boss from BT
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Yep, been there, done that, have the t-shirt... As someone said on another forum, if you think smth makes sense in Japan, do the exact opposite. That's why they call it Napaj.
 
Quote from oldtime:

and I think that's the fed's idea, make it so low that you will buy an apartment building, start a restaurant or at least buy a stock.
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Exactly that´s the point of the FED...:)

By the way: how many US government bonds are expiring in January 2012? Where are these investors moving their monies? Into cash? At an inflation rate of > 1.5% yoy? I don´t think negative real interest rates are an invitation to reinvest into the bond markets - except corporate bond markets (except bonds issues by banksters...)
 
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