T-bond now in historical high, how much higher can it go?

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blnbr

T-bond price is now in historical high. Let's assume recession is coming and the stock market is falling in the coming months, how much higher can T-bond still go based on the fundamental analysis?
 

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Curr CTD yield is smth like 2.37. JL98 (the comparable JGB, Sep 2027 maturity) yields 1.48, so that's smth like 90bps. If my arithmetic is correct, that's worth arnd 15 points.
 
Whoever is buying US Government, I just do not understand. It must be a lemming effect. It's practically guaranteed to fail, either due to default or inflation.
 
Quote from Random.Capital:

I would suggest looking at the past 20 years of Japan's bond performance for clues on "might".
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Hi Random, Could you provide a link for the Japan bond and its historical price chart, Thanks!
 
Quote from SREC:
Whoever is buying US Government, I just do not understand. It must be a lemming effect. It's practically guaranteed to fail, either due to default or inflation.
More...
So this is one of those cases where the whole it is stupid and you know better, right?
 
Quote from Martinghoul:

So this is one of those cases where the whole it is stupid and you know better, right?
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"You not a true macro trader if you have not lost money shorting JGBs!"(c) my Ex-boss from BT
 
Quote from Martinghoul:

So this is one of those cases where the whole it is stupid and you know better, right?
More...
srec is right but is ignoring one of the fundamental laws of markets.
– “The market can stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay solvent!”…
 
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