System Trading Journal

12/02/2002

Trade #1 Went Short at break of first 30-min. bar at 947.75, covering after first bounce off pivot at 937.50 for a gain of (10.25 x 2 x 50=$1,025).

Trade #2 Went Long on the mid-day breakout at 939.25, but realized things weren’t going smoothly, and tightened my stops, getting closed out at 938.50, for a loss of (.75 x 2 x 50=$75)..

Trade #3 Went Short after failure on rally attempt at 935.25, covering with a trailing stop at 929.75 for a gain of (5.5 x 2 x 50=$550)..

The reason the Actual is better than the system today is that I was more aggressive with trailing stops, and used discretion with trade #2. Over time overriding the system has proved counterproductive, but I’m working on a system to improve my discretion :).

ACTUAL
Daily gain/(loss) $1,470.60 (inc. 29.40 of commish)
Monthly gain/(loss) $1,470.60 1.471%
Daily ES Points = 15 per contract
Monthly ES Points = 15 per contract
YTD ES points = (17.26)

SYSTEM
Daily gain/(loss) $695.60 (inc. 29.40 of commish)
Monthly gain/(loss) $695.60 .07%
Daily ES Points = 7.25 per contract
Monthly ES Points = 7.25 per contract
YTD ES points = (2.75)
 
ddefina I saw you use that a lot.


However, my backtesting shows that entries based on the break of the first 30min or 60min range (on ES) is a break-even system at best.

What's your say on this?

Don.
 
The key to the 30-minute breakout trade is knowing which ones to take.

It is my belief that the break of the 30-minute range always triggers a trade only question being a fade, or continuation entry. On the 30 minute breakouts I take for continuation my win rate is above 70% and fade entries a little bit lower.

But always interesting and I too would like to know your thoughts on these ddefina.

AllenZ
 
Quote from dozu888:

ddefina I saw you use that a lot.

However, my backtesting shows that entries based on the break of the first 30min or 60min range (on ES) is a break-even system at best.
What's your say on this?
Don.
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I only use it on gaps, and only in fading a gap. My first trade otherwise is getting in near yesterday's close. I haven't tested the 30-min break trade by itself, but what kind of stops did you use in your testing? On my system I would start out with my stops at the other end of the extreme, and then trail.
 
Quote from ElCubano:

keep up the good work ....Santa needs to get paid....:D
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Thanks, I need a few more good days to get back November's money, otherwise I'm skipping Santa and going to garage sales for gifts. :)
 
Looking for a mid-day rally here, since there are so many shorts on board already, but little downward momentum. Could get good rally if some stops are popped. Long @ 923 with tight stops.
 
12/03/2002

Trade #1 Went Short @ 925 anticipating a sell off after 30-min range was broken to downside, and the market looked weak. Covered a short time later at 923.50 after the buying came in heavy and I figured we’d go into a range. I was wrong, we dropped another 5 + points, but it still went into a range later on. Recorded a gain of (1.50 x 2 x 50=$150).

Trade #2 Went Long on the mid-day breakout at 923, but was later stopped and reversed at 919.75 for a loss of (3.25 x 2 x 50=$325)..

Trade #3 Went Short after failure on rally attempt at 919.75, but was soon stopped out at 925.25 for a loss of (5.5 x 2 x 50=$550)..

I did slightly better than the system, but was tempted to quit after the first trade today. It seems whenever we go into a tight range only bad things happen with this system.

ACTUAL
Daily gain/(loss) $(754.40) (inc. 29.40 of commish)
Monthly gain/(loss) $716.20 .072%
Daily ES Points = (7.25) per contract
Monthly ES Points = 7.75 per contract
YTD ES points = (24.51)

SYSTEM
Daily gain/(loss) ($879.40) (inc. 29.40 of commish)
Monthly gain/(loss) ($183.80) .07%
Daily ES Points = (8.50) per contract
Monthly ES Points = (1.25) per contract
YTD ES points = (11.25)
 
This market is no fun! I resisted the temptation to go for the ES pop at 7:00a.m. since the Nasdaq didn't follow, and later went long near the lower end of the 30-min range, only to be stopped out and reversed at 909.50. I was planning on a down day until the magic (institution) number was triggered (apparently) and massive buying stopped me out at 917.25. Wide stops don't alway guarantee a higher hit rate! Down 11 points so far, and not sure if I'll get back into this crazy market today. It looks like the institutions are defending the 910-911 range, so we'll probably go into the compressed trading range again.

I just bet they (institutions with fed support) are defending key points for the sake of themselves and our economy. I know many will disagree, but this market is too artificial. They hold it up and YOU buy (sucker). Even bull markets have natural pullbacks, and this market seems to lack those natural pullbacks. Maybe I'm too entrenched in the bear market mentality?

I'm going to tread cautiously when shorting near key support areas from now on.
 
Quote from ddefina:

I just bet they (institutions with fed support) are defending key points for the sake of themselves and our economy. I know many will disagree, but this market is too artificial. They hold it up and YOU buy (sucker). Even bull markets have natural pullbacks, and this market seems to lack those natural pullbacks. Maybe I'm too entrenched in the bear market mentality?
More...

Maybe not. Given all the multiple resistance levels in this area, we're still in a bear market rally.

--Db
 
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