System Trading Journal

m_c_a98 · Nov 22, 2002

Quote from ddefina:

Yes, it's become the discretionary systematic trading journal. If it was performing like it has the last year, it would be easier to take all the signals, but this month it's really struggling. I noticed in past months with narrow ranges the W/L rate averaged 35-45% and the R/R was around 1.5, where in the volatile months like July and August, the W/L was around 75% and the R/R was 2.5-3.0 (hard to believe I know). This is one of those low-end months that puts my discipline to the test, and forces me to find ways to improve the results. Obviously I should just take the signals after looking at my performance.

I agree, but the problem is that unless you can prove that you have some sort of dependency(which is unlikely) from trade to trade and that you have a filter to skip certain trades(taking advantage of this knowledge), you will most likely do more harm than good by not taking all the signals. Which can turn your positive expectancy system into a negative situation.

ddefina · Nov 22, 2002

Quote from m_c_a98:

I agree, but the problem is that unless you can prove that you have some sort of dependency(which is unlikely) from trade to trade and that you have a filter to skip certain trades(taking advantage of this knowledge), you will most likely do more harm than good by not taking all the signals. Which can turn your positive expectancy system into a negative situation.

Yes, that's what my wife tells me.

dbphoenix · Nov 22, 2002

Quote from m_c_a98:

I agree, but the problem is that unless you can prove that you have some sort of dependency(which is unlikely) from trade to trade and that you have a filter to skip certain trades(taking advantage of this knowledge), you will most likely do more harm than good by not taking all the signals. Which can turn your positive expectancy system into a negative situation.

Although there's nothing wrong with having two systems, one for low volatility situations and one for high. Forcing one system to satisfy both conditions may not be appropriate.

--Db

Hofferino · Nov 22, 2002

Quote from ddefina:

I just think there's too many stupid buyers out there so I'm going to skip the short signal at 928.50. If it trades up around 935 I might go short (discretionary today).

If those buyers are buying because they think the market is going up, because there enough other people who also think the market is going up, and the market indeed goes up, and they make money, while the sellers lose money, what praytell makes the buyers "stupid"? Sounds kinda smart to me...

ddefina · Nov 22, 2002

Interesting how the market is taking out the interim S/R points and reversing immediately. Everyone is in range mode now. These are days I hate with this system. The traders are trying to sell this rally since yesterday and someone keeps buying beyond reason. Must be the public finally getting in to hold the bag? Or is this a real bull market, and a bunch of us are dillusioned?

dbphoenix · Nov 22, 2002

Quote from ddefina:

Interesting how the market is taking out the interim S/R points and reversing immediately. Everyone is in range mode now. These are days I hate with this system. The traders are trying to sell this rally since yesterday and someone keeps buying beyond reason. Must be the public finally getting in to hold the bag? Or is this a real bull market, and a bunch of us are dillusioned?

If you're daytrading, it shouldn't make any difference. At least in terms of what price is supposed to do. One over-riding rule I have is to avoid trading coils, and right now we're in a coil. So I can relax. If your system doesn't have a similar sort of opt-out feature, you may want to consider that.

--Db

ddefina · Nov 22, 2002

Quote from Hofferino:

If those buyers are buying because they think the market is going up, because there enough other people who also think the market is going up, and the market indeed goes up, and they make money, while the sellers lose money, what praytell makes the buyers "stupid"? Sounds kinda smart to me...

I'm just saying that from the point of view that we are overbought and technical levels were broken to the downside yesterday (short-term) that were ignored. This is bad etiquette on behalf of traders, if they were the one's responsible (which I doubt), who know the rules and should help drive down the market when those levels are broken

Obviously a foreign force (real money) has come into the market with no regard for how things are done, and is mucking up the game plan.

El Cazador · Nov 22, 2002

I'm not familiar with this term. Do you mean periods when the market trades between support and resistance levels again and again? Please elaborate. Thanks

~EC

ddefina · Nov 22, 2002

Quote from dbphoenix:

If you're daytrading, it shouldn't make any difference. At least in terms of what price is supposed to do. One over-riding rule I have is to avoid trading coils, and right now we're in a coil. So I can relax. If your system doesn't have a similar sort of opt-out feature, you may want to consider that.

--Db

Yes I agree. My opt out is two stop outs either direction creating a channel. Kind of expensive, so if you have another suggestion let me know.

dbphoenix · Nov 22, 2002

Quote from El Cazador:

I'm not familiar with this term. Do you mean periods when the market trades between support and resistance levels again and again? Please elaborate. Thanks

~EC

It's another term for symmetrical triangle.

--Db